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Tropical Storm Douglas Wind Speed Probabilities Number 6
2020-07-21 22:37:18| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE JUL 21 2020 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 212037 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM DOUGLAS WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082020 2100 UTC TUE JUL 21 2020 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DOUGLAS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 125.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) 31(31) 27(58) X(58) X(58) 15N 135W 50 X X( X) X( X) 11(11) 21(32) X(32) X(32) 15N 135W 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) X( 9) X( 9) 15N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 19(19) 3(22) X(22) 15N 140W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) 15N 140W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 20N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) 15N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) 20N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 3(15) 20N 145W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) 20N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 12(14) 20N 150W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 20N 151W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) BUOY 51004 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 20N 154W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) HILO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) $$ FORECASTER BERG
Tropical Depression Seven Forecast Discussion Number 1
2020-07-21 22:36:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Tue Jul 21 2020 000 WTNT42 KNHC 212036 TCDAT2 Tropical Depression Seven Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072020 500 PM AST Tue Jul 21 2020 Satellite imagery and scatterometer data indicate that the low pressure area located over the central tropical Atlantic has a well-defined circulation and sufficient organized convection to be designated a tropical depression. Thus, advisories are being initiated on Tropical Depression Seven. The initial intensity is set at 30 kt in best agreement with the subjective satellite intensity estimate from TAFB. The initial motion is 300/7. The depression is south of a strong subtropical ridge over the central Atlantic, and over the next several days it should turn generally westward and accelerate as it encounters the easterly flow associated with the ridge. The ECMWF, GFS, and UKMET models are in reasonably good agreement on their track forecasts, and the NHC official forecast is close to them and the various consensus models. The intensity forecast is lower confidence. The GFS, ECMWF, and UKMET models forecast the cyclone to be dissipated or be a weak low by the 120 h point, likely due to to some vertical shear and dry air entrainment. On the other hand, the SHIPS-based guidance and the HWRF forecast the system to be a hurricane at 120 h, shrugging off the shear and dry air. The NHC intensity forecast will be a compromise between these extremes, showing a peak intensity of 55 kt in 60-72 h followed by some weakening based on the global models. The cyclone is small in size, and as a result it could change intensity - both up and down - faster than what is currently forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/2100Z 9.8N 40.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 22/0600Z 10.1N 41.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 22/1800Z 10.3N 43.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 23/0600Z 10.3N 46.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 23/1800Z 10.4N 49.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 60H 24/0600Z 10.6N 51.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 24/1800Z 11.0N 54.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 25/1800Z 12.0N 61.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 26/1800Z 13.5N 68.5W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Storm Douglas Forecast Advisory Number 6
2020-07-21 22:36:21| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE JUL 21 2020 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 212036 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM DOUGLAS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082020 2100 UTC TUE JUL 21 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.1N 125.4W AT 21/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 255 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 30SE 30SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 75SE 30SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.1N 125.4W AT 21/2100Z AT 21/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.2N 124.8W FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 11.9N 127.1W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 30SE 30SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 12.1N 129.5W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 40SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 13.0N 131.9W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 40SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 14.4N 134.5W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 40SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 15.7N 137.3W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 40SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 16.9N 140.2W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 40SE 40SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 25/1800Z 18.5N 146.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 26/1800Z 19.0N 151.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.1N 125.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Tropical Depression Seven Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1
2020-07-21 22:35:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE JUL 21 2020 000 FONT12 KNHC 212035 PWSAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072020 2100 UTC TUE JUL 21 2020 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 9.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 40.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CURACAO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) AVES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) DOMINICA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) MARTINIQUE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) SAINT LUCIA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 4(11) SAINT LUCIA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) SAINT VINCENT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 5(15) SAINT VINCENT 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) BARBADOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 3(15) BARBADOS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) BARBADOS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) GRENADA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 6(15) GRENADA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) GRENADA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) TRINIDADTOBAGO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 3(13) TRINIDADTOBAGO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) PORT OF SPAIN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) JUANGRIEGO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Tropical Depression Seven Public Advisory Number 1
2020-07-21 22:35:50| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Tue Jul 21 2020 000 WTNT32 KNHC 212035 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Seven Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072020 500 PM AST Tue Jul 21 2020 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...9.8N 40.4W ABOUT 1185 MI...1905 KM WSW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS ABOUT 1420 MI...2285 KM E OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Seven was located near latitude 9.8 North, longitude 40.4 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). A turn toward the west with an increase in forward speed is expected tonight and Wednesday, and that motion should continue through Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm tonight or Wednesday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Beven
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