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Hurricane Douglas Wind Speed Probabilities Number 9
2020-07-22 16:56:07| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC WED JUL 22 2020 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 221455 PWSEP3 HURRICANE DOUGLAS WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082020 1500 UTC WED JUL 22 2020 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DOUGLAS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 129.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 135W 34 X 2( 2) 21(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) 15N 135W 50 X X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 15N 140W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 52(53) 6(59) X(59) X(59) 15N 140W 50 X X( X) X( X) 24(24) 6(30) X(30) X(30) 15N 140W 64 X X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 3(12) X(12) X(12) 15N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) X( 9) X( 9) 15N 145W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 3(13) X(13) 20N 145W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 20N 145W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 15N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) 20N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 20(21) 1(22) 20N 150W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) 20N 150W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 20N 151W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 19(19) 3(22) 20N 151W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) 20N 151W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) BUOY 51004 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 7(20) BUOY 51004 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 20N 154W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 14(22) 20N 154W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) HILO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 17(22) HILO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) HILO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) BRADSHAW AAF 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 14(16) BRADSHAW AAF 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 18N 156W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) SOUTH POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 15(18) SOUTH POINT 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 21N 156W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) KAILUA-KONA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 16(18) KAILUA-KONA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) KAHULUI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 21N 158W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) BARKING SANDS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) HANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) LANAI CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) KAUNAKAKAI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) BUOY 51002 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) HONOLULU 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) JOINT BASE PHH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) LIHUE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 20N 160W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) NIIHAU 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 21N 160W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) BUOY 51003 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Hurricane Douglas Public Advisory Number 9
2020-07-22 16:55:36| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 500 AM HST Wed Jul 22 2020 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 221455 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Hurricane Douglas Advisory Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082020 500 AM HST Wed Jul 22 2020 ...DOUGLAS RESUMES STRENGTHENING AND BECOMES THE FIRST HURRICANE OF THE 2020 EASTERN PACIFIC SEASON... SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...11.8N 129.5W ABOUT 1500 MI...2415 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA ABOUT 1785 MI...2870 KM ESE OF HILO HAWAII MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM HST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Douglas was located near latitude 11.8 North, longitude 129.5 West. Douglas is moving toward the west near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue through the day. A turn toward the west-northwest with an increase in forward speed is expected tonight, and this motion should continue for the next several days. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is expected during the next day or two. Some weakening could begin on Friday once Douglas begins to move over cooler waters. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb (29.33 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM HST. $$ Forecaster Berg
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Hurricane Douglas Forecast Advisory Number 9
2020-07-22 16:55:36| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC WED JUL 22 2020 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 221455 TCMEP3 HURRICANE DOUGLAS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082020 1500 UTC WED JUL 22 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.8N 129.5W AT 22/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 30SE 30SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 90SE 60SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.8N 129.5W AT 22/1500Z AT 22/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.6N 128.9W FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 12.0N 131.4W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 10SE 10SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 40SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 13.1N 134.1W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 50SE 40SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 14.4N 137.0W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 40SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 15.7N 140.0W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 60SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 17.0N 143.0W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 50SE 40SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 18.0N 146.1W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 50SE 40SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 26/1200Z 19.0N 152.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 27/1200Z 20.0N 158.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.8N 129.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Tropical Storm Gonzalo Forecast Discussion Number 4
2020-07-22 16:39:33| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Wed Jul 22 2020 000 WTNT42 KNHC 221439 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Gonzalo Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072020 1100 AM AST Wed Jul 22 2020 Satellite imagery indicates that the cyclone has become significantly better organized since the last advisory. Visible imagery shows a well-defined central dense overcast with a hint of an eye and an outer convective band in the western semicircle, while a 09Z GMI microwave overpass showed a well-defined inner convective ring feature. Various subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates range from 35-55 kt, so the initial intensity is raised to a possibly conservative 45 kt. The initial motion is now 270/10. Gonzalo is on the south side of a low- to mid-level subtropical ridge, and this feature should steer the storm generally westward at a faster forward speed for the next 3 days or so. After that time, a motion toward the west-northwest is expected. The new NHC forecast track is little changed from the previous track, and it lies very close to the consensus models. The intensity forecast remains very problematic and of low confidence. On one side, the cyclone has been strengthening quickly and the good organization suggests additional, and possibly rapid, strengthening should occur. In addition, the SHIPS-based guidance and the HWRF make the system a hurricane and keep that intensity through 120 h. On the other side, the GFS, UKMET, ECMWF, and Canadian models are not big fans of this system, as they all forecast it to either be a weak low or dissipated by 120 h, possibly due to dry air entrainment and large-scale subsidence. The NHC intensity forecast again compromises between these extremes, showing Gonzalo peaking as a hurricane in 36-48 h, followed by weakening in deference to the global models. The new intensity forecast has significantly higher intensities than the previous forecast for most of the forecast period based on the recent intensification. As noted before, the small size of this system makes it susceptible to significant fluctuations in intensity, both upward and downward. Interests in the southern Windward Islands should monitor the progress of this system. Gonzalo is the earliest 7th named storm on record in the Atlantic basin, beating Gert of 2005 by 2 days. Key Messages 1. Gonzalo is expected to move near or over the southern Windward Islands this weekend, and could bring direct impacts from winds and heavy rainfall. While it is too soon to determine the magnitude and timing of those impacts, interests in the southern Windward Islands should monitor the progress of Gonzalo. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/1500Z 9.9N 43.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 23/0000Z 10.0N 45.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 23/1200Z 10.0N 47.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 24/0000Z 10.1N 50.2W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 24/1200Z 10.4N 52.8W 70 KT 80 MPH 60H 25/0000Z 10.7N 55.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 25/1200Z 11.4N 58.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 26/1200Z 13.0N 66.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 27/1200Z 15.0N 71.5W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Storm Gonzalo Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4
2020-07-22 16:39:33| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC WED JUL 22 2020 000 FONT12 KNHC 221439 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM GONZALO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072020 1500 UTC WED JUL 22 2020 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GONZALO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 9.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 43.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT PT GALLINAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) CURACAO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) CAPE BEATA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) AVES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) DOMINICA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) MARTINIQUE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) X( 8) SAINT LUCIA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 11(14) X(14) SAINT LUCIA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) SAINT VINCENT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 14(18) 1(19) SAINT VINCENT 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) SAINT VINCENT 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) BARBADOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 7(18) X(18) BARBADOS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) BARBADOS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) GRENADA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 17(21) 1(22) GRENADA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) TRINIDADTOBAGO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 12(19) X(19) TRINIDADTOBAGO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) PORT OF SPAIN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) X( 9) JUANGRIEGO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) X(10) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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