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Tropical Storm Douglas Wind Speed Probabilities Number 8
2020-07-22 10:33:59| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC WED JUL 22 2020 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 220833 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM DOUGLAS WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082020 0900 UTC WED JUL 22 2020 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DOUGLAS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 128.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 135W 34 X X( X) 33(33) 14(47) X(47) X(47) X(47) 15N 135W 50 X X( X) 9( 9) 8(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) 15N 135W 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 15N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 26(31) X(31) X(31) 15N 140W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) X(13) X(13) 15N 140W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) 20N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 10(16) X(16) 20N 145W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) 20N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) 7(23) 20N 150W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 20N 151W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 11(22) 20N 151W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) BUOY 51004 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 12(15) BUOY 51004 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 20N 154W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 16(18) 20N 154W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) HILO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) HILO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) BRADSHAW AAF 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 18N 156W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) SOUTH POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 21N 156W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) KAILUA-KONA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) KAHULUI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 21N 158W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) HANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) LANAI CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) KAUNAKAKAI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) HONOLULU 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) JOINT BASE PHH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 20N 160W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) $$ FORECASTER LATTO
Tropical Depression Seven Forecast Discussion Number 3
2020-07-22 10:33:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Wed Jul 22 2020 000 WTNT42 KNHC 220832 TCDAT2 Tropical Depression Seven Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072020 500 AM AST Wed Jul 22 2020 The cyclone has become a little better organized this morning with indications of it developing convective banding features. Intensity estimates based on Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB are 30 kt and 35 kt respectively. I prefer to wait for consensus 35-kt estimates before naming the system, but it seems very likely that we will have Gonzalo over the tropical Atlantic very soon. The intensity forecast for this system is subject to more than the usual degree of uncertainty. Although the cyclone is likely to remain in an environment of fairly low shear, the influences of dry air and large-scale subsidence could inhibit strengthening in a few days. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous one, and calls for some strengthening during the next couple of days followed by a leveling off thereafter. This is below the model consensus, but above the global model predictions which eventually dissipate the cyclone. It should also be noted that the small size of this system makes it susceptible to significant fluctuations in intensity, both upward and downward. The motion continues a little north of due west or 285/10 kt. A well-defined subtropical ridge is forecast to remain in place to the north of the tropical cyclone during the forecast period. The official forecast, like the previous one, is for a generally westward motion at a fast forward speed over the forecast periods. This is in close agreement with the latest dynamical model consensus. Interests in the southern Windward Islands should monitor the progress of this system. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/0900Z 10.0N 42.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 22/1800Z 10.2N 44.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 23/0600Z 10.2N 46.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 23/1800Z 10.2N 49.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 24/0600Z 10.4N 51.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 60H 24/1800Z 10.8N 54.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 25/0600Z 11.3N 57.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 26/0600Z 12.7N 64.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 27/0600Z 15.0N 70.0W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Depression Seven Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3
2020-07-22 10:32:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC WED JUL 22 2020 000 FONT12 KNHC 220832 PWSAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072020 0900 UTC WED JUL 22 2020 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 42.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CURACAO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) CAPE BEATA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) AVES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) DOMINICA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) MARTINIQUE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 1( 8) SAINT LUCIA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 1(13) SAINT LUCIA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) SAINT VINCENT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) 1(16) SAINT VINCENT 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) SAINT VINCENT 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) BARBADOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 12(16) X(16) BARBADOS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) BARBADOS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) GRENADA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) 2(17) GRENADA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) GRENADA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) TRINIDADTOBAGO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) 1(15) TRINIDADTOBAGO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) PORT OF SPAIN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) JUANGRIEGO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Tropical Depression Seven Public Advisory Number 3
2020-07-22 10:32:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Wed Jul 22 2020 000 WTNT32 KNHC 220832 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Seven Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072020 500 AM AST Wed Jul 22 2020 ...SMALL DEPRESSION CLOSE TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...10.0N 42.4W ABOUT 1285 MI...2065 KM E OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- Interests in the Windward Islands should monitor the progress of this system. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Seven was located near latitude 10.0 North, longitude 42.4 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A generally westward motion at a faster forward speed is expected during the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm today. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Depression Seven Forecast Advisory Number 3
2020-07-22 10:31:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC WED JUL 22 2020 000 WTNT22 KNHC 220831 TCMAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072020 0900 UTC WED JUL 22 2020 INTERESTS IN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.0N 42.4W AT 22/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.0N 42.4W AT 22/0900Z AT 22/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 9.9N 41.9W FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 10.2N 44.1W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 10.2N 46.6W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 10.2N 49.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 10.4N 51.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 10.8N 54.2W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 11.3N 57.2W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 26/0600Z 12.7N 64.4W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 27/0600Z 15.0N 70.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 10.0N 42.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/1500Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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