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Tropical Depression Ten Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3
2021-08-28 22:35:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT AUG 28 2021 000 FONT15 KNHC 282035 PWSAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102021 2100 UTC SAT AUG 28 2021 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 50.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
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Tropical Depression Ten Forecast Discussion Number 3
2021-08-28 22:34:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Sat Aug 28 2021 000 WTNT45 KNHC 282034 TCDAT5 Tropical Depression Ten Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102021 500 PM AST Sat Aug 28 2021 This afternoon's satellite presentation consists of an exposed surface circulation with a rather shapeless convective mass displaced to the east and north of the center. Without question, the 15 to 20 kt of west-northwesterly shear is doing a number on the cloud pattern. Also evident, are a number of arc clouds propagating away from the system's deep convection, certainly indicative of dry air intrusion. Consequently, the initial intensity is once again held at 30 kt for this advisory. The global models as well as the Decay SHIPS (ECMWF/GFS) intensity guidance still show the shear relaxing a bit tonight and into Sunday, which should allow the depression to briefly become a tropical storm. By Monday, however, the shear is forecast to increase while the cyclone moves into an even more dry and stable air mass. These inhibiting contributions should stifle further strengthening and weaken the cyclone back to a depression through the remainder of the forecast period. It's worth mentioning that the GFS indicates that the depression will become a remnant low in 72 hours while turning northwestward to west-northwestward within the tradewind flow and dissipate by the end of the week. For now, the NHC forecast will stick with the consensus intensity models and the SHIPS guidance which agree on maintaining a depression through day 5. The initial motion is estimated to be northward, or 360/7 kt. The depression remains embedded in low- to mid-level southerly flow produced by a mid-Atlantic trough dominating the central Atlantic. This synoptic feature, along with a subtropical high pressure located over the east Atlantic and western Africa, should influence a generally northward motion through the 5-day period. The official track forecast again is adjusted a little to the right of the previous advisory beyond day 3, and lies between the TVCN and HCCA multimodel solutions. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/2100Z 15.6N 50.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 29/0600Z 16.6N 50.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 29/1800Z 18.2N 49.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 30/0600Z 19.8N 49.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 30/1800Z 21.3N 49.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 31/0600Z 22.5N 48.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 31/1800Z 23.8N 49.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 01/1800Z 27.2N 50.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 02/1800Z 30.5N 51.5W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ Forecaster Roberts
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Tropical Depression Ten Public Advisory Number 3
2021-08-28 22:34:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Sat Aug 28 2021 000 WTNT35 KNHC 282034 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Ten Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102021 500 PM AST Sat Aug 28 2021 ...DEPRESSION STILL STRUGGLING WHILE MOVING NORTHWARD... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.6N 50.0W ABOUT 790 MI...1270 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Ten was located near latitude 15.6 North, longitude 50.0 West. The depression is moving toward the north near 8 mph (13 km/h) and this general motion is forecast to continue during the next several days. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is forecast, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm by Sunday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Roberts
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Tropical Depression Ten Forecast Advisory Number 3
2021-08-28 22:34:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT AUG 28 2021 000 WTNT25 KNHC 282034 TCMAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102021 2100 UTC SAT AUG 28 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 50.0W AT 28/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 50.0W AT 28/2100Z AT 28/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 50.0W FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 16.6N 50.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 18.2N 49.9W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 19.8N 49.7W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 21.3N 49.3W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 22.5N 48.8W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 23.8N 49.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 01/1800Z 27.2N 50.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 02/1800Z 30.5N 51.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.6N 50.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/0300Z $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
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Hurricane Nora Public Advisory Number 12A
2021-08-28 19:53:15| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 100 PM CDT Sat Aug 28 2021 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 281753 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Hurricane Nora Intermediate Advisory Number 12A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142021 100 PM CDT Sat Aug 28 2021 ...NORA STRENGTHENING WHILE AN EYE FORMS JUST OFF THE COAST OF JALISCO... ...AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER EN ROUTE TO INVESTIGATE... SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.0N 105.4W ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM S OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO ABOUT 400 MI...645 KM SE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...977 MB...28.85 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Manzanillo to San Blas Mexico A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * North of San Blas to Topolobampo Mexico A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * South of Manzanillo to Lazaro Cardenas Mexico * North of San Blas to Altata Mexico A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Cabo San Lucas to La Paz Mexico A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12 to 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be complete. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere along the coasts of Sinaloa, Sonora, and Baja California Sur should monitor the progress of Nora. Additional watches and warnings may be required for portions of these areas later today or on Sunday. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Nora was located near latitude 19.0 North, longitude 105.4 West. Nora is moving toward the north near 12 mph (19 km/h). This motion is expected to continue through this evening, bringing Nora's center very close to or over the western part of Jalisco, Mexico, during the next several hours. A motion toward the north-northwest and northwest at a slower forward speed is expected Sunday through Tuesday. On the forecast track, Nora's center will approach the mouth of the Gulf of California on Sunday and move over southern portions of the Gulf on Monday and Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is forecast through tonight if Nora's center does not move inland over Mexico. Some gradual weakening is expected to begin by Sunday night or Monday, but Nora is forecast to remain as a hurricane through Tuesday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km). A wind gust to 63 mph (101 km/h) was recently reported at Chamela-Cuixmala, Jalisco. A gust to 50 mph (80 km/h) was also reported at Manzanillo, Colima. The estimated minimum central pressure is 977 mb (28.85 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Nora can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4, WMO header WTPZ44 KNHC, and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep4.shtml?key_messages. WIND: Nora's eyewall is moving onshore the coast of southern Jalisco and western Colima. Hurricane conditions are imminent within the southern portion of the hurricane warning area and will spread northward within warning area through tonight. Hurricane conditions are also possible within the hurricane watch area tonight and may spread to the northern portions of the watch area Sunday and Sunday night. Tropical storm conditions are occurring over tropical storm warning area south of Manzanillo and will spread to the northern tropical storm warning area north of San Blas this evening through Sunday night. RAINFALL: Nora is expected to produce rainfall totals of 8 to 12 inches with maximum amounts of 20 inches this weekend into early next week along the west coast of Mexico from the Mexican states of Guerrero northward to southern Sonora, including Baja California Sur. This rainfall will produce life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. Toward the middle and latter part of next week, moisture associated with Nora may bring heavy rainfall to portions of the southwestern U.S. and the central Rockies. STORM SURGE: Storm surge could produce coastal flooding near where the center passes the coast in areas of onshore winds, or east of the center if Nora makes landfall. The surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. SURF: Swells generated by Nora are affecting the southern and southwestern coast of Mexico and will spread northward to the coast of Baja California Sur and into the Gulf of California over the weekend and into early next week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Berg
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