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Tropical Storm Nora Wind Speed Probabilities Number 9
2021-08-27 22:49:02| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI AUG 27 2021 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 272048 PWSEP4 TROPICAL STORM NORA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142021 2100 UTC FRI AUG 27 2021 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NORA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 104.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT PUNTA EUGENIA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 8(18) P ABREOJOS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) P ABREOJOS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 18(23) 42(65) 3(68) 1(69) CABO SAN LUCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 20(21) 4(25) X(25) CABO SAN LUCAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 2(10) X(10) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 20(25) 45(70) 3(73) 1(74) SAN JOSE CABO 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 26(27) 3(30) 1(31) SAN JOSE CABO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 2(12) X(12) LA PAZ 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 30(32) 15(47) 1(48) LA PAZ 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 7(13) X(13) LA PAZ 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) LORETO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 18(24) 6(30) LORETO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) LORETO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) P PENASCO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) HERMOSILLO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) BAHIA KINO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 8(16) BAHIA KINO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) GUAYMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 12(16) 11(27) GUAYMAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) GUAYMAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) HUATABAMPO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 12(17) 4(21) HUATABAMPO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) LOS MOCHIS 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 14(16) 12(28) 1(29) LOS MOCHIS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 1( 7) LOS MOCHIS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) CULIACAN 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 18(22) 3(25) X(25) CULIACAN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) ISLAS MARIAS 34 1 8( 9) 53(62) 19(81) 2(83) X(83) X(83) ISLAS MARIAS 50 X X( X) 10(10) 19(29) 2(31) X(31) X(31) ISLAS MARIAS 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) MAZATLAN 34 X 1( 1) 13(14) 29(43) 11(54) 1(55) X(55) MAZATLAN 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) X(10) X(10) MAZATLAN 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) SAN BLAS 34 X 3( 3) 20(23) 6(29) 2(31) X(31) X(31) P VALLARTA 34 X 12(12) 35(47) 1(48) 1(49) X(49) X(49) P VALLARTA 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 105W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) 15N 105W 50 21 X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 6 53(59) 5(64) X(64) X(64) X(64) X(64) MANZANILLO 34 29 28(57) 2(59) 1(60) X(60) X(60) X(60) MANZANILLO 50 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) L CARDENAS 34 11 3(14) 1(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) ZIHUATANEJO 34 6 2( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) 15N 110W 34 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 20N 110W 34 X 4( 4) 9(13) 8(21) 6(27) 1(28) X(28) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X 3( 3) 3( 6) 2( 8) 3(11) X(11) X(11) 25N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 3(10) $$ FORECASTER BERG
Tropical Storm Nora Public Advisory Number 9
2021-08-27 22:48:30| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Fri Aug 27 2021 845 WTPZ34 KNHC 272048 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Nora Advisory Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142021 400 PM CDT Fri Aug 27 2021 ...NORA STRENGTHENING... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON SATURDAY... SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.5N 104.9W ABOUT 245 MI...395 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO ABOUT 605 MI...975 KM SSE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.27 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Lazaro Cardenas to Cabo Corrientes Mexico A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Tecpan de Galeana to San Blas Mexico A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * North of San Blas to Mazatlan Mexico A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere along the northwestern coast of mainland Mexico and southern portions of Baja California Sur should monitor the progress of Nora. Additional watches and warnings will likely be required for portions of these areas tonight or on Saturday. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nora was located near latitude 15.5 North, longitude 104.9 West. Nora is moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A motion toward the northwest or north-northwest is expected through Monday. On the forecast track, the center of Nora will approach the southwestern coast of Mexico tonight and pass very near the coasts of the states of Jalisco and Nayarit Saturday and Saturday night. Nora will then approach and move into the Gulf of California on Sunday and Monday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and Nora is expected to become a hurricane on Saturday. Nora is a large tropical storm, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 275 miles (445 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 991 mb (29.27 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Nora can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4, WMO header WTPZ44 KNHC, and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep4.shtml?key_messages. WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area on Saturday. Tropical storm conditions are likely occurring over southern portions of the tropical storm warning area and will spread to northern portions of the warning area through Saturday night. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the tropical storm watch area Saturday night and Sunday. RAINFALL: Heavy rain associated with Nora is expected across coastal sections of the Mexican states of Oaxaca, Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco. Rainfall totals of 8 to 12 inches are forecast through this weekend with isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches possible. This rainfall will produce life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. As Nora continues northwest, heavy rainfall will move into Baja California Sur late Sunday into Monday. Rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches are forecast, with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches possible across southern portions of Baja California Sur. Life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides may occur as a result. Toward the middle and later part of next week, moisture associated with Nora may bring heavy rainfall to portions of the southwestern U.S. into the central Great Basin and central Rockies. SURF: Swells generated by Nora are affecting the southern and southwestern coast of Mexico and will spread northward to the coast of Baja California Sur and into the Gulf of California over the weekend into early next week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Berg
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Tropical Storm Nora Forecast Advisory Number 9
2021-08-27 22:48:30| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI AUG 27 2021 844 WTPZ24 KNHC 272048 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM NORA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142021 2100 UTC FRI AUG 27 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * LAZARO CARDENAS TO CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * TECPAN DE GALEANA TO SAN BLAS MEXICO A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF SAN BLAS TO MAZATLAN MEXICO A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF NORA. ADDITIONAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THESE AREAS TONIGHT OR ON SATURDAY. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 104.9W AT 27/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 991 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 50NE 70SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT.......240NE 120SE 150SW 130NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 240SE 150SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 104.9W AT 27/2100Z AT 27/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 104.7W FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 16.5N 105.6W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 60SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT...170NE 120SE 110SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 18.3N 106.2W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...120NE 110SE 80SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 20.3N 107.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 110SE 70SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 21.9N 107.8W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 110SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 22.9N 108.6W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 23.9N 109.4W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 50SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 31/1800Z 25.9N 110.9W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 01/1800Z 28.4N 111.8W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.5N 104.9W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPEP4...AT 28/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Hurricane Ida Public Advisory Number 6
2021-08-27 22:47:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM EDT Fri Aug 27 2021 987 WTNT34 KNHC 272046 CCA TCPAT4 BULLETIN Hurricane Ida Advisory Number 6...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092021 500 PM EDT Fri Aug 27 2021 Corrected typo in the second headline ...CENTER OF IDA APPROACHING WESTERN CUBA... ...STORM SURGE AND HURRICANE WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.1N 83.2W ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM NW OF THE ISLE OF YOUTH ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM SW OF HAVANA CUBA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Storm Surge Warning has been issued from east of Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge, Louisiana, to the Mississippi/Alabama border including Vermilion Bay, Lake Borgne, Lake Pontchartrain, and Lake Maurepas. A Hurricane Warning has been issued for the coast of Louisiana from Intracoastal City to the Mouth of the Pearl River, including Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Metropolitan New Orleans. A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the northern Gulf coast from the Mouth of the Pearl River to the Mississippi/Alabama border. A Tropical Storm Warning has also been issued for the coast of Louisiana from west of Intracoastal City to Cameron. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * East of Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge Louisiana to the Mississippi/Alabama border * Vermilion Bay, Lake Borgne, Lake Pontchartrain, and Lake Maurepas A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Cuban provinces of Pinar del Rio and Artemisa, and the Isle of Youth * Intracoastal City Louisiana to the Mouth of the Pearl River * Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Metropolitan New Orleans A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Sabine Pass to Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge Louisiana * Mobile Bay A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Cameron Louisiana to west of Intracoastal City Louisiana * Mouth of the Pearl River to the Mississippi/Alabama border A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Cuban provinces of Matanzas, Mayabeque, and Havana * Cameron Louisiana to west of Intracoastal City Louisiana * Mouth of the Pearl River to the Mississippi/Alabama border A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Mississippi/Alabama border to the Alabama/Florida border A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere along the northern U.S. Gulf coast should monitor the progress of this system. Interests in the Dry Tortugas should also monitor the progress of Ida. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Ida was located near latitude 22.1 North, longitude 83.2 West. Ida is moving toward the northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this general motion should continue until Ida reaches the northern Gulf coast on Sunday. A slower northward motion is forecast after Ida reaches the northern Gulf coast. On the forecast track, the center of Ida will pass over western Cuba during the next several hours, and then move over the southeastern and central Gulf of Mexico later tonight and Saturday. Ida is forecast to make landfall along the U.S. northern Gulf coast within the hurricane warning area on Sunday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is anticipated while Ida moves over western Cuba this evening. Steady to rapid strengthening is expected when Ida moves over the southeastern and central Gulf of Mexico over the weekend, and Ida is expected to be an extremely dangerous major hurricane when it approaches the northern Gulf coast on Sunday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km). A wind gust to 46 mph (74 km/h) has recently been reported on Cayo Largo, Cuba. The estimated minimum central pressure is 985 mb (29.09 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Ida can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?key_messages. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 4 to 6 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds along the immediate coast of the Isle of Youth and near and to the east of where the center crosses the coast of western Cuba. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Morgan City, LA to Mouth of the Mississippi River...10-15 ft Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs, MS including Lake Borgne...7-11 ft Intracoastal City, LA to Morgan City, LA including Vermilion Bay...6-9 ft Ocean Springs, MS to MS/AL border...4-7 ft Lake Pontchartrain...4-7 ft Lake Maurepas...3-5 ft Pecan Island, LA to Intracoastal City, LA...3-5 ft MS/AL border to AL/FL border including Mobile Bay...2-4 ft Sabine Pass to Pecan Island, LA...2-4 ft Overtopping of local levees outside of the Hurricane and Storm Damage Risk Reduction System is possible where local inundation values may be higher than those shown above. The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Hurricane and tropical storm conditions are occuring over the Isle of Youth and portions of western Cuba and will continue through tonight in western Cuba. Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area along the northern Gulf coast beginning Sunday with tropical storm conditions expected to begin by late Saturday night. RAINFALL: Ida is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 6 to 10 inches with maximum totals of 15 inches across Jamaica. Rainfall totals of 8 to 12 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches are expected across the Cayman Islands and western Cuba, including the Isle of Youth. These rainfall amounts may produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. As Ida approaches the central Gulf Coast Sunday afternoon, total rainfall accumulations of 8 to 16 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches are possible from southeast Louisiana to coastal Mississippi and Alabama through Monday morning. This is likely to result in considerable flash, urban, small stream, and riverine flooding impacts. Ida is forecast to turn northeast as it moves inland later Monday with rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches possible across southern and central Mississippi into the Tennessee Valley. This is likely to result in flash, urban, small stream, and riverine flooding impacts. SURF: Swells generated by this system will affect the Cayman Islands and Cuba through tonight. Swells will begin reaching portions of the northern Gulf coast Saturday night or early Sunday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Hurricane Ida Wind Speed Probabilities Number 6
2021-08-27 22:41:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI AUG 27 2021 000 FONT14 KNHC 272041 PWSAT4 HURRICANE IDA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092021 2100 UTC FRI AUG 27 2021 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IDA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 83.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 70 KTS ...80 MPH...130 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT KEY WEST FL 34 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) NAPLES FL 34 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) VENICE FL 34 2 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) TAMPA FL 34 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) APALACHICOLA 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 3( 8) 2(10) 1(11) X(11) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X 3( 3) 5( 8) 3(11) 1(12) 1(13) X(13) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X 1( 1) 6( 7) 4(11) 3(14) 1(15) X(15) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 4( 8) 8(16) 1(17) X(17) COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) BIRMINGHAM AL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 3(10) 1(11) MONTGOMERY AL 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 1(11) 1(12) WHITING FLD FL 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) 10(20) 2(22) X(22) PENSACOLA FL 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 7(11) 12(23) 1(24) X(24) PENSACOLA FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X 4( 4) 32(36) 8(44) 3(47) 1(48) X(48) GFMX 290N 870W 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) GFMX 290N 870W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) MOBILE AL 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 16(20) 21(41) 1(42) 1(43) MOBILE AL 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) MOBILE AL 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) GULFPORT MS 34 X X( X) 6( 6) 31(37) 23(60) 1(61) X(61) GULFPORT MS 50 X X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 12(21) 1(22) X(22) GULFPORT MS 64 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) X( 8) X( 8) STENNIS MS 34 X X( X) 7( 7) 39(46) 26(72) 1(73) X(73) STENNIS MS 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) 19(33) 1(34) X(34) STENNIS MS 64 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 10(14) X(14) X(14) BURAS LA 34 X 1( 1) 21(22) 52(74) 10(84) X(84) X(84) BURAS LA 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 33(36) 13(49) 1(50) X(50) BURAS LA 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 18(19) 7(26) 1(27) X(27) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X 5( 5) 84(89) 9(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) GFMX 280N 890W 50 X X( X) 58(58) 24(82) 1(83) X(83) X(83) GFMX 280N 890W 64 X X( X) 29(29) 28(57) 1(58) X(58) X(58) JACKSON MS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 37(47) 5(52) X(52) JACKSON MS 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 1(14) X(14) JACKSON MS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 X X( X) 7( 7) 55(62) 24(86) X(86) 1(87) NEW ORLEANS LA 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 26(27) 29(56) 1(57) X(57) NEW ORLEANS LA 64 X X( X) X( X) 12(12) 20(32) 2(34) X(34) GFMX 280N 910W 34 X 2( 2) 42(44) 43(87) 5(92) X(92) X(92) GFMX 280N 910W 50 X X( X) 12(12) 46(58) 9(67) X(67) X(67) GFMX 280N 910W 64 X X( X) 3( 3) 37(40) 10(50) 1(51) X(51) BATON ROUGE LA 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 41(45) 41(86) 2(88) X(88) BATON ROUGE LA 50 X X( X) X( X) 16(16) 41(57) 1(58) 1(59) BATON ROUGE LA 64 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 29(34) 2(36) X(36) MORGAN CITY LA 34 X X( X) 6( 6) 59(65) 27(92) 1(93) X(93) MORGAN CITY LA 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 31(32) 34(66) 2(68) X(68) MORGAN CITY LA 64 X X( X) X( X) 16(16) 30(46) 1(47) X(47) ALEXANDRIA LA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) 46(61) 3(64) 1(65) ALEXANDRIA LA 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 26(28) 1(29) X(29) ALEXANDRIA LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) X(12) X(12) LAFAYETTE LA 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 35(38) 42(80) 3(83) X(83) LAFAYETTE LA 50 X X( X) X( X) 12(12) 38(50) 2(52) X(52) LAFAYETTE LA 64 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 26(32) 1(33) X(33) NEW IBERIA LA 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 44(47) 37(84) 2(86) X(86) NEW IBERIA LA 50 X X( X) X( X) 16(16) 38(54) 1(55) 1(56) NEW IBERIA LA 64 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 26(34) 2(36) X(36) GFMX 280N 930W 34 X X( X) 6( 6) 29(35) 16(51) 1(52) X(52) GFMX 280N 930W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 9(16) 1(17) X(17) GFMX 280N 930W 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) SHREVEPORT LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 21(24) 2(26) X(26) SHREVEPORT LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) FORT POLK LA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 38(50) 2(52) 1(53) FORT POLK LA 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 17(19) 1(20) X(20) FORT POLK LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8) LAKE CHARLES 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 17(18) 36(54) 3(57) X(57) LAKE CHARLES 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 19(23) 2(25) X(25) LAKE CHARLES 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 1(13) X(13) CAMERON LA 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 28(31) 27(58) 1(59) X(59) CAMERON LA 50 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 18(24) 1(25) X(25) CAMERON LA 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) X(12) 1(13) JASPER TX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 27(35) 2(37) 1(38) JASPER TX 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) X( 9) X( 9) JASPER TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) KOUNTZE TX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 24(31) 2(33) X(33) KOUNTZE TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) 1( 7) KOUNTZE TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) PORT ARTHUR TX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 27(37) 2(39) 1(40) PORT ARTHUR TX 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 1(11) X(11) PORT ARTHUR TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GALVESTON TX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 13(22) 1(23) X(23) GALVESTON TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GALVESTON TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) HOUSTON TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 10(13) 1(14) X(14) FREEPORT TX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 8(11) 1(12) X(12) GFMX 280N 950W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 9(15) 1(16) X(16) HIGH ISLAND TX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 20(27) 1(28) X(28) HIGH ISLAND TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) HIGH ISLAND TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) MATAGORDA TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) 1(10) X(10) PORT O CONNOR 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) GFMX 270N 960W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 7 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) HAVANA 34 36 1(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) ISLE OF PINES 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) ISLE OF PINES 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
Tags: number
speed
wind
hurricane
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