je.st
news
Tag: number
Tropical Storm Nora Forecast Advisory Number 10
2021-08-28 04:35:00| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT AUG 28 2021 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 280234 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM NORA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142021 0300 UTC SAT AUG 28 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * LAZARO CARDENAS TO CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * TECPAN DE GALEANA TO SAN BLAS MEXICO A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF SAN BLAS TO MAZATLAN MEXICO A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF NORA. ADDITIONAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THESE AREAS TONIGHT OR ON SATURDAY. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 105.1W AT 28/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 991 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 50NE 70SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT.......240NE 120SE 150SW 130NW. 12 FT SEAS..270NE 300SE 150SW 240NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 105.1W AT 28/0300Z AT 28/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 104.9W FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 17.6N 105.6W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 60SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT...170NE 120SE 110SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 19.6N 106.2W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...110NE 110SE 80SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 21.6N 107.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 110SE 70SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 22.7N 107.9W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 110SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 23.6N 108.6W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 24.5N 109.3W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 50SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 01/0000Z 26.5N 111.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 02/0000Z 29.5N 111.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.3N 105.1W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPEP4...AT 28/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/0900Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
Tags: number
storm
advisory
tropical
Hurricane Ida Public Advisory Number 6A
2021-08-28 01:49:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 800 PM EDT Fri Aug 27 2021 000 WTNT34 KNHC 272349 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Hurricane Ida Intermediate Advisory Number 6A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092021 800 PM EDT Fri Aug 27 2021 ...IDA INLAND OVER PINAR DEL RIO CUBA... ...FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN RAPIDLY THIS WEEKEND... SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.4N 83.5W ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM SW OF HAVANA CUBA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * East of Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge Louisiana to the Mississippi/Alabama border * Vermilion Bay, Lake Borgne, Lake Pontchartrain, and Lake Maurepas A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Cuban provinces of Pinar del Rio and Artemisa, and the Isle of Youth * Intracoastal City Louisiana to the Mouth of the Pearl River * Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Metropolitan New Orleans A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Sabine Pass to Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge Louisiana * Mobile Bay A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Cameron Louisiana to west of Intracoastal City Louisiana * Mouth of the Pearl River to the Mississippi/Alabama border A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Cuban provinces of Matanzas, Mayabeque, and Havana * Cameron Louisiana to west of Intracoastal City Louisiana * Mouth of the Pearl River to the Mississippi/Alabama border A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Mississippi/Alabama border to the Alabama/Florida border A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere along the northern U.S. Gulf coast should monitor the progress of this system. Interests in the Dry Tortugas should also monitor the progress of Ida. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Ida was located over western Cuba near latitude 22.4 North, longitude 83.5 West. Ida is moving toward the northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this general motion should continue until Ida reaches the northern Gulf coast on Sunday. A slower northward motion is forecast after Ida reaches the northern Gulf coast. On the forecast track, the center of Ida will remain over western Cuba for another hour or two, and then move over the southeastern and central Gulf of Mexico later tonight and Saturday. Ida is forecast to make landfall along the U.S. northern Gulf coast within the hurricane warning area on Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady to rapid strengthening is expected when Ida moves over the southeastern and central Gulf of Mexico over the weekend, and Ida is expected to be an extremely dangerous major hurricane when it approaches the northern Gulf coast on Sunday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km). A wind gust to 46 mph (74 km/h) has recently been reported on Cayo Largo, Cuba. The estimated minimum central pressure is 985 mb (29.09 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Ida can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?key_messages. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 4 to 6 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds along the immediate coast of the Isle of Youth and near and to the east of where the center crosses the coast of western Cuba. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Morgan City, LA to Mouth of the Mississippi River...10-15 ft Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs, MS including Lake Borgne...7-11 ft Intracoastal City, LA to Morgan City, LA including Vermilion Bay...6-9 ft Ocean Springs, MS to MS/AL border...4-7 ft Lake Pontchartrain...4-7 ft Lake Maurepas...3-5 ft Pecan Island, LA to Intracoastal City, LA...3-5 ft MS/AL border to AL/FL border including Mobile Bay...2-4 ft Sabine Pass to Pecan Island, LA...2-4 ft Overtopping of local levees outside of the Hurricane and Storm Damage Risk Reduction System is possible where local inundation values may be higher than those shown above. The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Hurricane and tropical storm conditions are occuring over the Isle of Youth and portions of western Cuba and will continue through tonight in western Cuba. Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area along the northern Gulf coast beginning Sunday with tropical storm conditions expected to begin by late Saturday night. RAINFALL: Ida is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 6 to 10 inches with maximum totals of 15 inches across Jamaica. Rainfall totals of 8 to 12 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches are expected across the Cayman Islands and western Cuba, including the Isle of Youth. These rainfall amounts may produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. As Ida approaches the central Gulf Coast Sunday afternoon, total rainfall accumulations of 8 to 16 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches are possible from southeast Louisiana to coastal Mississippi and Alabama through Monday morning. This is likely to result in considerable flash, urban, small stream, and riverine flooding impacts. Ida is forecast to turn northeast as it moves inland later Monday with rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches possible across southern and central Mississippi into the Tennessee Valley. This is likely to result in flash, urban, small stream, and riverine flooding impacts. SURF: Swells generated by this system will affect the Cayman Islands and Cuba through tonight. Swells will begin reaching portions of the northern Gulf coast Saturday night or early Sunday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
Tags: number
public
advisory
hurricane
Tropical Storm Nora Public Advisory Number 9A
2021-08-28 01:46:35| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 700 PM CDT Fri Aug 27 2021 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 272346 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Nora Intermediate Advisory Number 9A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142021 700 PM CDT Fri Aug 27 2021 ...NORA EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY RAINS AND FLOODING TO PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.0N 105.1W ABOUT 215 MI...345 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO ABOUT 570 MI...815 KM SE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.27 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Lazaro Cardenas to Cabo Corrientes Mexico A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Tecpan de Galeana to San Blas Mexico A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * North of San Blas to Mazatlan Mexico A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere along the northwestern coast of mainland Mexico and southern portions of Baja California Sur should monitor the progress of Nora. Additional watches and warnings will likely be required for portions of these areas tonight or on Saturday. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nora was located near latitude 16.0 North, longitude 105.1 West. Nora is moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A motion toward the northwest or north-northwest is expected through Monday. On the forecast track, the center of Nora will approach the southwestern coast of Mexico tonight and pass very near the coasts of the states of Jalisco and Nayarit Saturday and Saturday night. Nora will then approach and move into the Gulf of California on Sunday and Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and Nora is expected to become a hurricane on Saturday. Nora is a large tropical storm, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 275 miles (445 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 991 mb (29.27 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Nora can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4, WMO header WTPZ44 KNHC, and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep4.shtml?key_messages. WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area on Saturday. Tropical storm conditions are likely occurring over southern portions of the tropical storm warning area and will spread to the northern portions of the warning area through Saturday night. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the tropical storm watch area Saturday night and Sunday. RAINFALL: Heavy rain associated with Nora is expected across coastal sections of the Mexican states of Oaxaca, Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco. Rainfall totals of 8 to 12 inches are forecast through this weekend with isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches possible. This rainfall will produce life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. As Nora continues northwest, heavy rainfall will move into Baja California Sur late Sunday into Monday. Rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches are forecast, with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches possible across southern portions of Baja California Sur. Life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides may occur as a result. Toward the middle and later part of next week, moisture associated with Nora may bring heavy rainfall to portions of the southwestern U.S. into the central Great Basin and central Rockies. SURF: Swells generated by Nora are affecting the southern and southwestern coast of Mexico and will spread northward to the coast of Baja California Sur and into the Gulf of California over the weekend into early next week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch
Tags: number
public
storm
advisory
Hurricane Ida Forecast Discussion Number 6
2021-08-27 22:49:28| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM EDT Fri Aug 27 2021 000 WTNT44 KNHC 272049 TCDAT4 Hurricane Ida Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092021 500 PM EDT Fri Aug 27 2021 Cuban radar data and reports from an earlier Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter mission indicate that Ida's inner core structure continued to improve after the release of the previous advisory package. An eye became apparent in radar imagery before the center reached the Isle of Youth, and the final fix from the Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft reported a closed 24-n-mi wide eye. The aircraft measured winds to support hurricane intensity shortly before 1800 UTC, and during the final northeast eyewall pass, and flight-level wind data support increasing the intensity to 70 kt, which is used as the initial intensity for this advisory. The upper-level outflow has expanded over all but the southwestern portion of the circulation, and the upper-level wind pattern is forecast to continue to improve overnight and early Saturday. Once Ida moves past western Cuba and into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico, it will be moving through a very favorable oceanic and atmospheric environment consisting of high ocean heat content waters, low vertical wind shear, and a moist low- to mid-level atmosphere. These conditions are likely to result in a period of rapid strengthening during the next 24 to 36 hours. In fact, with the higher initial wind speed, the intensity guidance has significantly increased this cycle, and the bulk of the guidance now brings Ida to category 4 intensity. The NHC forecast explicitly calls for rapid intensification during the next 24 to 36 hours, which is supported by several of the dynamical models, the LGEM model, and high probabilities of rapid intensification indicated by the SHIPS and DTOPS RI guidance. The NHC forecast is near the IVCN multi-model consensus aid, but is lower than HCCA and LGEM. It should be noted that some fluctuations in intensity are possible as Ida nears the northern Gulf coast due to possible eyewall replacement cycles. In addition to the expected increase in strength, the dynamical model guidance again calls for Ida's wind field to expand while it moves over the Gulf of Mexico. As a result, there is higher-than-normal confidence that a large and powerful hurricane will impact portions of the northern Gulf coast by late this weekend and early next week. Ida has wobbled a little right of the previous track, but the longer term motion continues to be northwestward or 320/13 kt. The steering currents remain well-established as a strong deep-layer ridge over the western Atlantic should continue to steer Ida northwestward across the Gulf this weekend. Ida will approach the western portion of the ridge after landfall, and this should result in a slower northward motion by day 3. After that time, a short-wave trough over the central United States is expected to cause the system to turn northeastward. The track guidance remains in remarkably good agreement through landfall along the northern Gulf coast, and there is higher-than-normal confidence in that portion of the track forecast. However, users are again reminded to not focus on the exact details of the track forecast as storm surge, wind, and rainfall impacts will extend far from the center. Key Messages: 1. Life-threatening storm surge and hurricane conditions are expected to continue through tonight in portions of western Cuba, including the Isle of Youth, where a Hurricane Warning is in effect. Life-threatening heavy rains, flash flooding and mudslides are expected across Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and western Cuba, including the Isle of Youth. 2. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation Sunday along the coasts of Louisiana and Mississippi within the Storm Surge Warning area. Extremely life-threatening inundation of 10 to 15 feet above ground level is possible within the area from Morgan City, Louisiana, to the Mouth of the Mississippi River. Interests throughout the warning area should follow any advice given by local officials. 3. Ida is expected to be an extremely dangerous major hurricane when it reaches the coast of Louisiana. Hurricane-force winds are expected Sunday in portions of the Hurricane Warning area along the Louisiana coast, including metropolitan New Orleans, with potentially catastrophic wind damage possible where the core of Ida moves onshore. Actions to protect life and property should be rushed to completion in the warning area. 4. Ida is likely to produce heavy rainfall later Sunday into Monday across the central Gulf Coast from southeast Louisiana to coastal Mississippi and Alabama, resulting in considerable flash, urban, small stream, and riverine flooding impacts. As Ida moves inland, flooding impacts are possible across portions of the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/2100Z 22.1N 83.2W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 28/0600Z 23.5N 84.8W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 28/1800Z 25.3N 86.9W 105 KT 120 MPH 36H 29/0600Z 27.1N 89.0W 115 KT 130 MPH 48H 29/1800Z 28.6N 90.6W 120 KT 140 MPH 60H 30/0600Z 30.0N 91.3W 80 KT 90 MPH...INLAND 72H 30/1800Z 31.5N 91.1W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 96H 31/1800Z 34.4N 89.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 120H 01/1800Z 36.0N 86.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Brown
Tags: number
discussion
forecast
hurricane
Tropical Storm Nora Forecast Discussion Number 9
2021-08-27 22:49:02| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Fri Aug 27 2021 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 272048 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Nora Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142021 400 PM CDT Fri Aug 27 2021 A 1656 UTC ASCAT-B scatterometer pass showed that Nora still does not have a tight inner core and instead has a 30-35 n mi region of winds 20 kt or less. However, the pass did show maximum wind vectors a little over 50 kt, so the storm has been strengthening, and maximum winds are estimated to be 55 kt. This is supported by Dvorak estimates of T3.5/55 kt from TAFB and SAB. A slight adjustment was made to Nora's initial position based on the scatterometer data, but the storm is still moving toward the northwest (310/10 kt). Nora is expected to maintain a motion toward the northwest or north-northwest as it heads in the direction of a weakness in the subtropical ridge which has developed over the U.S. southern Rockies and northern Mexico. The track guidance envelope appears to have tightened up compared to the past few days, with nearly all the model trackers showing Nora's center passing offshore just west of Cabo Corrientes, Mexico, in about 24 hours and then continuing northwestward either across the waters of the Gulf of California or inland over Baja California Sur. The new NHC track forecast has been nudged westward from this morning's forecast, but this is mainly due to the adjustment of the storm's initial position. This track is very close to the HCCA and other consensus aids. Nora's convective structure appears to be responding to a decrease in northeasterly shear, which is analyzed to be out of the northeast at 10-15 kt. This shear is forecast to decrease to 10 kt or less by tonight. Although Nora's broad structure could limit the storm's rate of strengthening, warm waters and upper-level divergence should allow it to become a hurricane over the next day or so. After that time, Nora's intensity will be strongly modulated on whether its center moves over mainland Mexico or the Baja California peninsula. If the center remains over water, as is shown in the official forecast, then environmental conditions appear conducive for Nora to remain as a hurricane for several more days, and the NHC forecast still closely follows the ECMWF-based SHIPS and LGEM models. That said, there is still greater-than- normal uncertainty in the intensity forecast after 48 hours. Key Messages: 1. Nora is forecast to strengthen to a hurricane on Saturday while passing nearby the coasts of the Mexican states of Jalisco and Nayarit, and hurricane watches and tropical storm warnings are in effect for portions of that coastline. Interests in these areas should closely monitor the progress of Nora and subsequent updates to the forecast. 2. Heavy rain associated with Nora is expected across coastal sections of the Mexican states of Oaxaca, Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco, as well as Baja California Sur. Life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides are expected. 3. Nora is forecast to move over the Gulf of California as a hurricane early next week, bringing a risk of wind and rain impacts to portions of the Mexican states of Baja California Sur, Sinaloa, and Sonora. Given the above-average uncertainty in the forecast, it is still too soon to determine the magnitude and location of these potential impacts. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/2100Z 15.5N 104.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 28/0600Z 16.5N 105.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 28/1800Z 18.3N 106.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 29/0600Z 20.3N 107.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 29/1800Z 21.9N 107.8W 75 KT 85 MPH 60H 30/0600Z 22.9N 108.6W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 30/1800Z 23.9N 109.4W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 31/1800Z 25.9N 110.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 01/1800Z 28.4N 111.8W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg
Tags: number
discussion
storm
tropical
Sites : [205] [206] [207] [208] [209] [210] [211] [212] [213] [214] [215] [216] [217] [218] [219] [220] [221] [222] [223] [224] next »