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Tropical Depression Ten Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1

2021-08-28 10:54:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0900 UTC SAT AUG 28 2021 000 FONT15 KNHC 280854 PWSAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102021 0900 UTC SAT AUG 28 2021 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 49.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER STEWART

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Tropical Storm Nora Public Advisory Number 10A

2021-08-28 07:54:36| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 100 AM CDT Sat Aug 28 2021 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 280554 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Nora Intermediate Advisory Number 10A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142021 100 AM CDT Sat Aug 28 2021 ...NORA EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY... ...HURRICANE WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.7N 105.0W ABOUT 260 MI...420 KM S OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO ABOUT 535 MI...860 KM SE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.27 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Warning from Manzanillo northward to Cabo Corrientes Mexico. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Manzanillo to Cabo Corrientes Mexico A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Lazaro Cardenas to south of Manzanillo Mexico A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Tecpan de Galeana to Manzanillo Mexico * North of Cabo Corrientes to San Blas Mexico A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * North of San Blas to Mazatlan Mexico A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 hours. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case over the next 24-36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere along the northwestern coast of mainland Mexico and southern portions of Baja California Sur should monitor the progress of Nora. Additional watches and warnings will likely be required for portions of these areas tonight or on Saturday. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nora was located near latitude 16.7 North, longitude 105.0 West. Nora is moving toward the north-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A motion toward the northwest or north-northwest is expected through Monday. On the forecast track, the center of Nora is expected to approach the southwestern coast of Mexico later today and pass very near the coast of the states of Jalisco and Nayarit by later tonight. Nora is then forecast to approach and move into the Gulf of California on Sunday and Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast, and Nora is expected to become a hurricane later today. Nora is a large tropical storm. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 275 miles (445 km)from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 991 mb (29.27 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Nora can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4, WMO header WTPZ44 KNHC, and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep4.shtml?key_messages. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area along the coast of mainland Mexico beginning later today. Hurricane conditions are also possible within the hurricane watch area later today. Tropical storm conditions are likely occurring over southern portions of the tropical storm warning area and will spread to the northern portions of the warning area later today. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the tropical storm watch area tonight and Sunday. RAINFALL: Heavy rain associated with Nora is expected across coastal sections of the Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco. Rainfall totals of 8 to 12 inches are forecast through this weekend with isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches possible. This rainfall will produce life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. As Nora continues northwest or north-northwest, heavy rainfall will move into the Baja California Sur late Sunday into Monday. Rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches are forecast, with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches possible across southern portions of Baja California Sur. Life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides may occur as a result. Toward the middle and latter part of next week, moisture associated with Nora may bring heavy rainfall to portions of the southwestern U.S. into the central Great Basin and central Rockies. SURF: Swells generated by Nora are affecting the southern and southwestern coast of Mexico and will spread northward to the coast of Baja California Sur and into the Gulf of California over the weekend and into early next week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Papin/Beven

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Hurricane Ida Public Advisory Number 7A

2021-08-28 07:52:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 200 AM EDT Sat Aug 28 2021 000 WTNT34 KNHC 280552 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Hurricane Ida Intermediate Advisory Number 7A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092021 200 AM EDT Sat Aug 28 2021 ...IDA MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO... ...FORECAST TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY BEFORE REACHING THE NORTHERN GULF COAST... SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.5N 84.7W ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM WNW OF HAVANA CUBA ABOUT 560 MI...900 KM SE OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * East of Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge Louisiana to the Mississippi/Alabama border * Vermilion Bay, Lake Borgne, Lake Pontchartrain, and Lake Maurepas A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Cuban provinces of Pinar del Rio and Artemisa, and the Isle of Youth * Intracoastal City Louisiana to the Mouth of the Pearl River * Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Metropolitan New Orleans A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Sabine Pass to Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge Louisiana * Mobile Bay A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Cameron Louisiana to west of Intracoastal City Louisiana * Mouth of the Pearl River to the Mississippi/Alabama border A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Cuban provinces of Matanzas, Mayabeque, and Havana * Cameron Louisiana to west of Intracoastal City Louisiana * Mouth of the Pearl River to the Mississippi/Alabama border A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Mississippi/Alabama border to the Alabama/Florida border A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere along the northern U.S. Gulf coast should monitor the progress of this system. Interests in the Dry Tortugas should also monitor the progress of Ida. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Ida was located near latitude 23.5 North, longitude 84.7 West. Ida is moving toward the northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h) and this general motion should continue until Ida reaches the northern Gulf coast on Sunday. A slower northward motion is forecast after Ida moves inland. On the forecast track, the center of Ida will move over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico today and over the north central Gulf of Mexico on Sunday. Ida is then expected to make landfall along the U.S. northern Gulf coast within the hurricane warning area by late Sunday. Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts. Rapid strengthening is forecast during the next day or two, and Ida is expected to be an extremely dangerous major hurricane when it approaches the northern Gulf coast on Sunday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km). The minimum central pressure estimated from the Hurricane Hunter aircraft data is 987 mb (29.15 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Ida can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?key_messages. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 4 to 6 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds along the immediate coast of the Isle of Youth and near and to the east of where the center crosses the coast of western Cuba. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Morgan City, LA to Mouth of the Mississippi River...10-15 ft Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs, MS including Lake Borgne...7-11 ft Intracoastal City, LA to Morgan City, LA including Vermilion Bay...6-9 ft Ocean Springs, MS to MS/AL border...4-7 ft Lake Pontchartrain...4-7 ft Lake Maurepas...3-5 ft Pecan Island, LA to Intracoastal City, LA...3-5 ft MS/AL border to AL/FL border including Mobile Bay...2-4 ft Sabine Pass to Pecan Island, LA...2-4 ft Overtopping of local levees outside of the Hurricane and Storm Damage Risk Reduction System is possible where local inundation values may be higher than those shown above. The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Hurricane and tropical storm conditions are occuring over the Isle of Youth and portions of western Cuba, and these winds will continue for a few more hours. Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area along the northern Gulf coast beginning Sunday with tropical storm conditions expected to begin by late Saturday night or early Sunday morning. RAINFALL: Ida is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 5 to 10 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches across western Cuba, including the Isle of Youth. These rainfall amounts may produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. As Ida approaches the central Gulf Coast Sunday afternoon, total rainfall accumulations of 8 to 16 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches are possible across southeast Louisiana and southern Mississippi through Monday. This is likely to result in considerable flash and riverine flooding impacts. Ida is forecast to turn northeast as it moves inland later Monday, with rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches possible from northeastern Louisiana and central Mississippi into the Tennessee Valley. This is likely to result in flash and riverine flooding impacts. SURF: Swells generated by Ida will continue to affect western Cuba through Saturday morning. Swells will begin reaching portions of the northern Gulf coast Saturday night or early Sunday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Beven

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Tropical Storm Nora Forecast Discussion Number 10

2021-08-28 04:44:00| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 1000 PM CDT Fri Aug 27 2021 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 280243 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Nora Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142021 1000 PM CDT Fri Aug 27 2021 Nora's cloud pattern has not become much better organized since earlier today. The central convection has diminished, but this is likely a diurnal fluctuation. Upper-level outflow appears to be fairly well-defined, with convective banding features most prominent over the southern portion of the circulation. Dvorak intensity estimates from both TAFB and SAB remain at 55 kt, so the advisory intensity will be held at that value for now. The storm has been moving a little to the east of the previous track over the past few hours, but the longer-term motion estimate is still northwestward, or 325/9 kt. Nora should move on a northwestward or north-northwestward heading for the next 2-3 days on the southwestern side of a mid-tropospheric anticyclone. Late in the forecast period, the cyclone is forecast to turn northward as the ridge to its north weakens. The official forecast track has been nudged just a bit to the east of the previous one during the next 72 hours or so, but not as far east as the latest dynamical model consensus, TVCE. Nora is expected to be in a moist, low-shear environment for the next few days, so the atmospheric conditions should favor intensification into a hurricane. Nonetheless, the majority of the intensity guidance does not show much strengthening beyond 24 hours, probably due to land interaction. The official intensity forecast shows gradual strengthening for the next couple of days or so, and is similar to the previous one. This is close to the LGEM guidance based on the ECMWF global model fields. It should be noted that there is significant uncertainty in the future strength of Nora because of the possible influence of land. Key Messages: 1. Nora is forecast to strengthen to a hurricane on Saturday while passing nearby the coasts of the Mexican states of Jalisco and Nayarit, and hurricane watches and tropical storm warnings are in effect for portions of that coastline. Interests in these areas should closely monitor the progress of Nora and subsequent updates to the forecast. 2.Heavy rain associated with Nora is expected across coastal sections of the Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco, as well as Baja California Sur. Life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides are expected. 3. Nora is forecast to move over the Gulf of California as a hurricane early next week, bringing a risk of wind and rain impacts to portions of the Mexican states of Baja California Sur, Sinaloa, and Sonora. Given the above-average uncertainty in the forecast, it is still too soon to determine the magnitude and location of these potential impacts. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/0300Z 16.3N 105.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 28/1200Z 17.6N 105.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 29/0000Z 19.6N 106.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 29/1200Z 21.6N 107.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 30/0000Z 22.7N 107.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 60H 30/1200Z 23.6N 108.6W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 31/0000Z 24.5N 109.3W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 01/0000Z 26.5N 111.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 02/0000Z 29.5N 111.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Pasch

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Hurricane Ida Forecast Discussion Number 7

2021-08-28 04:40:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 PM EDT Fri Aug 27 2021 000 WTNT44 KNHC 280240 TCDAT4 Hurricane Ida Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092021 1100 PM EDT Fri Aug 27 2021 Ida made landfall in the Cuban province of Pinar Del Rio around 2320 UTC with maximum sustained winds estimated to be around 70 kt. Radar data from Cuba indicate that the inner core of Ida has remained intact after its passage over western Cuba with a well-defined eye and relatively symmetric eyewall evident. In addition, satellite images show deep convection increasing in both intensity and coverage, a sign that Ida is strengthening. The Air Force Hurricane Hunters are currently investigating Ida and so far have found maximum 700 mb flight-level winds of 75 kt. Based on that data, the initial intensity is held at 70 kt. The hurricane is moving northwestward at about 13 kt. A subtropical ridge centered off the southeast U.S. coast is expected to shift westward through the weekend. This feature should continue to provide a steering flow that will take Ida steadily northwestward across the Gulf of Mexico during the next couple of days. The models remain in very good agreement and show Ida making landfall in Louisiana late Sunday or early Monday morning. After the storm moves inland, a decrease in forward speed and a turn to the north and then the northeast is predicted as Ida moves in the flow on the northwest and north sides of the ridge. Since the models are tightly clustered and because the steering flow is well pronounced, there is high confidence in the track forecast. The new NHC track forecast is very similar to the previous one and near the various consensus aids, which are often the most accurate models. Users are again reminded to not focus on the exact details of the track forecast as storm surge, wind, and rainfall impacts will extend far from the center. Ida is expected to remain in conducive conditions for intensification until it reaches the central Gulf coast. The global models show a very favorable upper-level wind pattern over the storm and abundant environmental moisture. These conducive atmospheric conditions combined with very warm Gulf of Mexico waters should allow Ida to rapidly intensify this weekend. In fact, it seems likely that Ida will pass over a warm eddy over the central Gulf of Mexico, where the ocean heat content is very high. All of the models show significant strengthening, but there is a fair amount of spread on how strong the hurricane will get. The NHC intensity forecast remains near the high end of the model guidance, and shows Ida becoming an extremely dangerous category 4 hurricane prior to reaching the coast. After landfall, rapid weakening is expected due to land interaction, drier air, and an increase in shear. As Ida continues to intensify over the Gulf of Mexico, an expansion of its wind field is predicted. The NHC wind radii forecast is largely based on the radii consensus, and winds of at least tropical storm force are likely to reach the coast Sunday morning. Therefore, all preparations to protect life and property for this dangerous event need to be made on Saturday. Key Messages: 1. Life-threatening storm surge and hurricane conditions are expected to continue for the next few hours in portions of western Cuba, including the Isle of Youth, where a Hurricane Warning is in effect. Life-threatening heavy rains, flash flooding and mudslides are expected across Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and western Cuba, including the Isle of Youth. 2. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation Sunday along the coasts of Louisiana and Mississippi within the Storm Surge Warning area. Extremely life-threatening inundation of 10 to 15 feet above ground level is possible within the area from Morgan City, Louisiana, to the Mouth of the Mississippi River. Interests throughout the warning area should follow any advice given by local officials. 3. Ida is expected to be an extremely dangerous major hurricane when it reaches the coast of Louisiana. Hurricane-force winds are expected Sunday in portions of the Hurricane Warning area along the Louisiana coast, including metropolitan New Orleans, with potentially catastrophic wind damage possible where the core of Ida moves onshore. Actions to protect life and property should be rushed to completion in the warning area. 4. Ida is likely to produce heavy rainfall later Sunday into Monday across the central Gulf Coast from southeast Louisiana to coastal Mississippi and Alabama, resulting in considerable flash, urban, small stream, and riverine flooding impacts. As Ida moves inland, flooding impacts are possible across portions of the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/0300Z 23.0N 84.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 28/1200Z 24.4N 85.6W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 29/0000Z 26.1N 87.7W 105 KT 120 MPH 36H 29/1200Z 27.8N 89.6W 120 KT 140 MPH 48H 30/0000Z 29.2N 90.8W 110 KT 125 MPH...INLAND 60H 30/1200Z 30.7N 91.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND 72H 31/0000Z 32.3N 90.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 96H 01/0000Z 34.9N 88.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 120H 02/0000Z 36.8N 83.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

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