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Hurricane Ida Forecast Advisory Number 8
2021-08-28 10:58:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT AUG 28 2021 000 WTNT24 KNHC 280858 TCMAT4 HURRICANE IDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092021 0900 UTC SAT AUG 28 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS DISCONTINUED ALL WARNINGS FOR CUBA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * EAST OF ROCKEFELLER WILDLIFE REFUGE LOUISIANA TO THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER * VERMILION BAY...LAKE BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...AND LAKE MAUREPAS A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER * LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...LAKE MAUREPAS...AND METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SABINE PASS TO ROCKEFELLER WILDLIFE REFUGE LOUISIANA * MOBILE BAY A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CAMERON LOUISIANA TO WEST OF INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA * MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER TO THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CAMERON LOUISIANA TO WEST OF INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA * MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER TO THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE- THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE NORTHERN U.S. GULF COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.0N 85.2W AT 28/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 987 MB EYE DIAMETER 25 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT.......100NE 60SE 40SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 60SE 60SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.0N 85.2W AT 28/0900Z AT 28/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.5N 84.7W FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 25.4N 86.9W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 80SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 27.1N 88.9W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 70SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 28.6N 90.5W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...130NE 110SE 80SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 30.1N 91.3W...INLAND MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 110SE 70SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 31.6N 91.2W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 100SE 40SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 33.2N 90.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 01/0600Z 36.0N 87.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 02/0600Z 37.5N 82.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.0N 85.2W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 28/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Hurricane Nora Forecast Advisory Number 11
2021-08-28 10:58:08| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT AUG 28 2021 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 280858 TCMEP4 HURRICANE NORA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142021 0900 UTC SAT AUG 28 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING NORTH OF CABO CORRIENTES TO SAN BLAS MEXICO. THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ALSO ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FROM NORTH OF SAN BLAS TO MAZATLAN MEXICO...AND HAS UPGRADED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH TO A WARNING. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MANZANILLO NORTHWARD TO SAN BLAS MEXICO A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * LAZARO CARDENAS TO SOUTH OF MANZANILLO MEXICO * NORTH OF SAN BLAS TO MAZATLAN MEXICO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * TECPAN DE GALEANA TO MANZANILLO MEXICO * NORTH SAN BLAS TO MAZATLAN MEXICO A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE FURTHER UP ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF NORA. ADDITIONAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THESE AREAS TONIGHT OR ON SATURDAY. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 105.2W AT 28/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 983 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 70SE 0SW 50NW. 34 KT.......180NE 150SE 120SW 140NW. 12 FT SEAS..240NE 360SE 180SW 210NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 105.2W AT 28/0900Z AT 28/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 105.0W FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 18.8N 105.5W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 50NE 60SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 120SE 80SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 20.8N 106.1W...NEAR MAINLAND MEXICO MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 22.4N 107.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 80SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 23.3N 107.8W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 24.1N 108.6W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 24.9N 109.4W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 01/0600Z 26.4N 110.6W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 02/0600Z 28.7N 111.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.1N 105.2W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPEP4...AT 28/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/1500Z $$ FORECASTER PAPIN/BEVEN
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Tropical Depression Ten Forecast Discussion Number 1
2021-08-28 10:55:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Sat Aug 28 2021 000 WTNT45 KNHC 280855 TCDAT5 Tropical Depression Ten Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102021 500 AM AST Sat Aug 28 2021 The tropical wave and associated low pressure system that the NHC has been tracking for the past several days has finally acquired a well-defined surface circulation and enough organized deep convection to be classified as a tropical depression. The last few visible satellite images yesterday evening indicated a tight swirl in the low-cloud field and a 27/2325Z partial ASCAT-A pass showed the circulation was also well-defined, albeit with only 23-kt surface winds. Since the time of that scatterometer pass, however, a significant increase in deep convection with cloud tops colder than -80 deg C has developed very near and to the northeast of he center, with a few cells also now having developed just to the southwest of the center. Based on the structure noted in the ASCAT data and the pronounced increase in the amount and organization of the convection, the advisory intensity is estimated to be 30 kt. The initial motion estimate is 340/06 kt. The system has slowed down markedly during the past several hours, likely due to the sharp increase in the associated convection. A turn toward the north is forecast to begin later this afternoon as the system moves into a break in the Atlantic subtropical ridge pattern, with a general northward motion continuing through the remainder of the forecast period. The latest NHC model guidance is surprisingly in good agreement on this track scenario, with only minor forward speed differences noted between the models. The 18-20 kt of westerly vertical wind shear affecting the depression is expected to abate somewhat during the next 12-24 hours, which should allow for some slight strengthening to occur while the system moves over 27.5 deg C sea-surface temperatures. By 48 hours, however, the shear is forecast to increase again in excess of 25 kt, which should act to weaken the cyclone, possibly even causing it to degenerate into a remnant low. For now, however, the official intensity forecast calls for the system to remain a tropical depression at days 3 and 4 in the event the cyclone regenerates at day 5 when the shear is forecast to decrease below 10 kt, which may allow for convection to redevelop. The official intensity forecast closely follows a blend of the intensity consensus models IVCN and NOAA-HCCA. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/0900Z 14.0N 49.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 28/1800Z 14.8N 50.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 29/0600Z 16.1N 50.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 29/1800Z 17.7N 50.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 30/0600Z 19.1N 50.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 30/1800Z 20.7N 49.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 31/0600Z 21.9N 49.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 01/0600Z 24.5N 50.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 02/0600Z 27.5N 52.8W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Depression Ten Public Advisory Number 1
2021-08-28 10:54:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Sat Aug 28 2021 000 WTNT35 KNHC 280854 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Ten Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102021 500 AM AST Sat Aug 28 2021 ...NEW DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.0N 49.9W ABOUT 820 MI...1320 KM ESE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Ten was located near latitude 14.0 North, longitude 49.9 West. The depression is moving toward the north-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h) and this motion is forecast to continue this morning. By this afternoon, the depression is forecast to move northward, and then maintain that general motion into early next week. On the forecast track, the system is expected to remain over the open Atlantic well to the east of the Lesser Antilles. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm later today. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Depression Ten Forecast Advisory Number 1
2021-08-28 10:54:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT AUG 28 2021 000 WTNT25 KNHC 280854 TCMAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102021 0900 UTC SAT AUG 28 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 49.9W AT 28/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 49.9W AT 28/0900Z AT 28/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 49.8W FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 14.8N 50.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 16.1N 50.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 17.7N 50.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 19.1N 50.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 20.7N 49.7W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 21.9N 49.7W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 01/0600Z 24.5N 50.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 02/0600Z 27.5N 52.8W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.0N 49.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/1500Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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