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Post-Tropical Cyclone Marty Public Advisory Number 7
2021-08-24 22:40:43| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Tue Aug 24 2021 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 242040 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Post-Tropical Cyclone Marty Advisory Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132021 200 PM PDT Tue Aug 24 2021 ...MARTY DEGENERATES INTO A REMNANT LOW... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.5N 119.2W ABOUT 620 MI...995 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Marty was located near latitude 20.5 North, longitude 119.2 West. The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h). A westward motion at a slightly slower forward speed is expected over the next couple of days, followed by a turn to the west-southwest on Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is expected, and Marty is forecast to dissipate on Friday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on Marty. For additional information on the remnant low please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Marty Forecast Advisory Number 7
2021-08-24 22:40:43| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE AUG 24 2021 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 242040 TCMEP3 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE MARTY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132021 2100 UTC TUE AUG 24 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 119.2W AT 24/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 119.2W AT 24/2100Z AT 24/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 118.6W FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 20.5N 120.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 20.5N 122.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 20.4N 125.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 20.2N 127.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 19.8N 129.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.5N 119.2W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON MARTY. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC. $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Marty Wind Speed Probabilities Number 7
2021-08-24 22:40:43| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE AUG 24 2021 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 242040 PWSEP3 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE MARTY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132021 2100 UTC TUE AUG 24 2021 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE MARTY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 119.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 120W 34 7 X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 20N 125W 34 X 1( 1) 6( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
Tropical Depression Marty Forecast Discussion Number 6
2021-08-24 16:33:07| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Tue Aug 24 2021 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 241433 TCDEP3 Tropical Depression Marty Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132021 800 AM PDT Tue Aug 24 2021 There has been no significant deep convection within 100 nmi of Marty's center since about 0600 UTC. The cyclone's cloud pattern now consists of some mid-level clouds and mostly low-level cold-air stratocumulus clouds. The current intensity of 30 kt is based on a unanimous Dvorak satellite classification of T1.5/2.5 (25 kt/35 kt) from TAFB and SAB, which has resulted in Marty being downgraded to a tropical depression. Due to the cyclone's future track remaining over sub-26C sea-surface temperatures, coupled with additional entrainment of stable low clouds, Marty is now forecast to degenerate to a post-tropical remnant low later today. The new NHC intensity forecast closely follows the trends of the intensity consensus models IVCN and NOAA-HCCA. The initial motion remains westward, or 270/10 kt. The strong deep-layer ridge to the north of the weakening shallow cyclone is expected to keep Marty on a generally westward track over the next 36 hours or so, followed by a west-southwestward motion thereafter until the cyclone dissipates. The new official forecast track lies near the extreme southern edge of the model guidance envelope, owing to the models' slight poleward bias noted over the past 36 hours. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/1500Z 20.6N 118.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 25/0000Z 20.6N 119.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 25/1200Z 20.6N 121.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 26/0000Z 20.6N 124.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 26/1200Z 20.5N 126.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 27/0000Z 20.2N 128.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 27/1200Z 19.6N 130.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 28/1200Z...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Depression Marty Wind Speed Probabilities Number 6
2021-08-24 16:32:46| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE AUG 24 2021 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 241432 PWSEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION MARTY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132021 1500 UTC TUE AUG 24 2021 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION MARTY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 118.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 120W 34 5 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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