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Tropical Depression Nine Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1
2021-08-26 16:46:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC THU AUG 26 2021 000 FONT14 KNHC 261445 PWSAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092021 1500 UTC THU AUG 26 2021 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT FT LAUDERDALE 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MARATHON FL 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 3( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) KEY WEST FL 34 X 1( 1) 8( 9) 5(14) 2(16) X(16) X(16) NAPLES FL 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) 2(11) X(11) X(11) FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) VENICE FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 4(13) X(13) X(13) TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) X( 8) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) 2(17) X(17) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 15(20) 2(22) X(22) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) 3(19) 1(20) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 6(13) 2(15) COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) BIRMINGHAM AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) MONTGOMERY AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 2( 8) WHITING FLD FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 8(16) 2(18) PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 9(19) 2(21) PENSACOLA FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 38(42) 3(45) 1(46) GFMX 290N 870W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 2(11) X(11) GFMX 290N 870W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MOBILE AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 14(27) 3(30) MOBILE AL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) MOBILE AL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) GULFPORT MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18) 20(38) 4(42) GULFPORT MS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 7(11) 2(13) GULFPORT MS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) STENNIS MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 21(21) 23(44) 4(48) STENNIS MS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 10(15) 2(17) STENNIS MS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) BURAS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 37(37) 18(55) 3(58) BURAS LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 12(22) 1(23) BURAS LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) X(10) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 71(75) 7(82) X(82) GFMX 280N 890W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 44(44) 7(51) 1(52) GFMX 280N 890W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 23(23) 6(29) X(29) JACKSON MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 22(27) 9(36) JACKSON MS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 4( 9) JACKSON MS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 27(27) 28(55) 6(61) NEW ORLEANS LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 18(24) 3(27) NEW ORLEANS LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 2(11) GFMX 280N 910W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 60(61) 18(79) 1(80) GFMX 280N 910W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 30(30) 22(52) 1(53) GFMX 280N 910W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) 15(31) 1(32) BATON ROUGE LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) 38(55) 8(63) BATON ROUGE LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 21(25) 5(30) BATON ROUGE LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 2(11) MORGAN CITY LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 27(27) 35(62) 6(68) MORGAN CITY LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 24(31) 3(34) MORGAN CITY LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) 2(14) ALEXANDRIA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 35(42) 12(54) ALEXANDRIA LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) 5(20) ALEXANDRIA LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) LAFAYETTE LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) 41(57) 9(66) LAFAYETTE LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 23(26) 6(32) LAFAYETTE LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 3(14) NEW IBERIA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) 42(59) 8(67) NEW IBERIA LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 24(28) 5(33) NEW IBERIA LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 2(14) GFMX 280N 930W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 26(26) 27(53) 3(56) GFMX 280N 930W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 19(26) 2(28) GFMX 280N 930W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 12(15) 1(16) SHREVEPORT LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 22(23) 10(33) SHREVEPORT LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 5(10) FORT POLK LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 34(40) 10(50) FORT POLK LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) 6(22) FORT POLK LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8) LAKE CHARLES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 37(46) 9(55) LAKE CHARLES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 21(22) 6(28) LAKE CHARLES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 3(12) CAMERON LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) 37(54) 5(59) CAMERON LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 24(27) 4(31) CAMERON LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 2(15) JASPER TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 29(33) 9(42) JASPER TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 4(17) JASPER TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) KOUNTZE TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 28(32) 7(39) KOUNTZE TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 4(16) KOUNTZE TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) PORT ARTHUR TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 31(37) 6(43) PORT ARTHUR TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) 4(19) PORT ARTHUR TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 2( 9) GALVESTON TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 24(31) 4(35) GALVESTON TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 2(14) GALVESTON TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) HOUSTON TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 16(18) 5(23) HOUSTON TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8) HOUSTON TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) AUSTIN TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) SAN ANTONIO TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) FREEPORT TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 15(17) 4(21) FREEPORT TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) FREEPORT TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) GFMX 280N 950W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 17(23) 2(25) GFMX 280N 950W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) GFMX 280N 950W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) HIGH ISLAND TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 27(31) 5(36) HIGH ISLAND TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 3(16) HIGH ISLAND TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8) MATAGORDA TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 13(16) 3(19) MATAGORDA TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) MATAGORDA TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) PORT O CONNOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 3(15) PORT O CONNOR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) PORT O CONNOR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) ROCKPORT TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) CORPUS CHRISTI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) GFMX 270N 960W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 2(11) GFMX 270N 960W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) GFMX 270N 960W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) GFMX 250N 960W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) COZUMEL MX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X 1( 1) 15(16) 11(27) 2(29) X(29) X(29) CP SAN ANTONIO 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) CP SAN ANTONIO 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) HAVANA 34 X 3( 3) 32(35) 4(39) 1(40) X(40) X(40) HAVANA 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ISLE OF PINES 34 X 16(16) 47(63) 1(64) X(64) X(64) X(64) ISLE OF PINES 50 X 1( 1) 14(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) ISLE OF PINES 64 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) CIENFUEGOS 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GRAND CAYMAN 34 1 45(46) X(46) X(46) X(46) X(46) X(46) GRAND CAYMAN 50 X 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) GRAND CAYMAN 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Tropical Depression Nine Public Advisory Number 1
2021-08-26 16:45:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM EDT Thu Aug 26 2021 000 WTNT34 KNHC 261445 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Nine Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092021 1100 AM EDT Thu Aug 26 2021 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN CUBA... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.9N 79.2W ABOUT 115 MI...180 KM SSW OF NEGRIL JAMAICA ABOUT 210 MI...340 KM SE OF GRAND CAYMAN MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of the Cayman Islands has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the Cayman Islands, including Grand Cayman, Little Cayman, and Cayman Brac. The government of Cuba has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the Cuban provinces of Matanzas, Mayabeque, Havana, Artemisa, Pinar del Rio, and the Isle of Youth. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Cayman Islands * Cuban provinces of Matanzas, Mayabeque, Havana, Artemisa, Pinar del Rio, and the Isle of Youth A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. Interests elsewhere in central and western Cuba, in the northern Yucatan Peninsula, and along the northern U.S. Gulf coast should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Nine was located near latitude 16.9 North, longitude 79.2 West. The depression is moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this general motion should continue over the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of the depression will pass near of over the Cayman Islands tonight, the Isle of Youth and Western Cuba Friday, and move over the southeastern and central Gulf of Mexico Friday night and Saturday. The system is forecast to approach the U.S. northern Gulf coast on Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady strengthening is forecast during the next few days. The depression is expected to become a tropical storm tonight, and become a hurricane when it is near western Cuba or over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. Additional strengthening is likely over the Gulf of Mexico and the system could be near major hurricane strength when it approaches the northern Gulf coast. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Depression Nine can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?key_messages. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore flow along the immediate coast of the Isle of Youth and near and to the east of where the center crosses the coast of western Cuba. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Cayman Islands tonight, and are expected to reach the Isle of Youth and portions of western Cuba in the warning area on Friday. RAINFALL: The depression is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 6 to 10 inches with maximum totals of 15 inches across Jamaica. Rainfall totals of 8 to 12 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches are expected across the Cayman Islands, western Cuba, including the Isle of Youth and the northeast portions of the Yucatan Peninsula. These rainfall amounts may produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. Rainfall from this system is likely to begin impacting portions of the central U.S. Gulf Coast by early Sunday. SURF: Swells generated by this system will begin affecting Jamaica, the Cayman Islands and Cuba tonight and Friday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Depression Nine Forecast Advisory Number 1
2021-08-26 16:45:01| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC THU AUG 26 2021 000 WTNT24 KNHC 261444 TCMAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092021 1500 UTC THU AUG 26 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...INCLUDING GRAND CAYMAN...LITTLE CAYMAN...AND CAYMAN BRAC. THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF MATANZAS...MAYABEQUE...HAVANA...ARTEMISA...PINAR DEL RIO...AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CAYMAN ISLANDS * CUBAN PROVINCES OF MATANZAS...MAYABEQUE...HAVANA...ARTEMISA... PINAR DEL RIO...AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN CUBA...IN THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND ALONG THE NORTHERN U.S. GULF COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 79.2W AT 26/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 79.2W AT 26/1500Z AT 26/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 79.0W FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 18.2N 80.4W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 20.3N 82.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 50SE 20SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 22.5N 83.9W...OVER WESTERN CUBA MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 90NE 60SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 24.4N 86.0W...OVER SOUTHEASTERN GULF MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 80SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 26.1N 88.1W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...130NE 110SE 60SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 27.7N 90.0W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...140NE 130SE 70SW 120NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 30/1200Z 30.5N 92.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 31/1200Z 33.7N 91.2W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.9N 79.2W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 26/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Tropical Depression Fourteen-E Forecast Discussion Number 3
2021-08-26 10:38:24| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Thu Aug 26 2021 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 260838 TCDEP4 Tropical Depression Fourteen-E Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142021 400 AM CDT Thu Aug 26 2021 Satellite imagery indicates that convection is increasing near the center of Tropical Depression Fourteen-E, but it is occurring in bands that are not showing a lot of curvature at this time. Satellite intensity estimates are currently 35 kt from SAB and 30 kt from TAFB, and the CIMSS ADT and satellite consensus techniques are also in the 30-35 kt range. In addition, earlier scatterometer data showed 25-30 kt winds, although there was no data close to the center. The initial intensity remains 30 kt for this advisory. The initial motion is a somewhat uncertain 290/7 kt. The cyclone is being steered generally westward along the southern extent of a mid-level ridge over the south-central United States. A deep-layer trough over the western U.S. is forecast to weaken this ridge during the next couple of days, with the cyclone moving northwestward to north-northwestward as a result. The track guidance continues to show a motion close to the coast of southwestern Mexico between 48-72 h, and the GFS and Canadian models on the eastern side of the guidance show a landfall in Mexico. The ECMWF model is farther to the left and keeps the system offshore of Mexico, while the UKMET is between these extremes and keeps the center offshore of mainland Mexico before taking the system near the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula. The forecast track is similar to the previous track, following the consensus models in keeping the center offshore of mainland Mexico before coming near Baja California Sur. However, there remains above average uncertainty in the track forecast, and interests along the coast of southwestern Mexico and in Baja California Sur should closely monitor the progress of the system and potential changes to the forecast. The depression is currently being affected by northeasterly vertical shear, which is likely to persist for another 24 h. After that time, conditions appear favorable for strengthening if the center stays far enough offshore. The new intensity forecast is similar to the previous forecast, and it lies near the upper edge of the intensity guidance. The 48-120 h portion of the forecast again has lower than average confidence due to the possibility of land interaction. Key Messages: 1. The depression is forecast to strengthen to a tropical storm on Thursday and be near hurricane intensity by Saturday or Saturday night. While the core of the storm is currently expected to pass near but offshore the southwestern coast of Mexico, strong winds and heavy rainfall, possibly resulting in flash floods and mudslides, could affect portions of that area over the next several days. Interests in this area should closely monitor the progress of this system and updates to the forecast. 2. The system is forecast to pass near the southern portion of Baja California Sur as a hurricane early next week, bringing a risk of wind and rain impacts to that area. Given the above average uncertainty in the forecast, it is too soon to determine the magnitude and location of these potential impacts. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/0900Z 12.0N 100.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 26/1800Z 12.8N 101.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 27/0600Z 13.9N 102.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 27/1800Z 15.2N 104.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 28/0600Z 16.5N 105.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 60H 28/1800Z 18.0N 105.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 29/0600Z 19.5N 106.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 30/0600Z 21.5N 108.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 31/0600Z 23.5N 111.0W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Depression Fourteen-E Forecast Advisory Number 3
2021-08-26 10:37:25| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC THU AUG 26 2021 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 260837 TCMEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142021 0900 UTC THU AUG 26 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION. WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THE COAST LATER TODAY. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.0N 100.6W AT 26/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.0N 100.6W AT 26/0900Z AT 26/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.9N 100.5W FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 12.8N 101.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 13.9N 102.8W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 20SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 15.2N 104.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 70SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 16.5N 105.1W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...140NE 130SE 70SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 18.0N 105.7W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...130NE 120SE 80SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 19.5N 106.3W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...120NE 110SE 80SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 30/0600Z 21.5N 108.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 31/0600Z 23.5N 111.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.0N 100.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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