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Hurricane Felicia Forecast Discussion Number 12

2021-07-17 04:32:32| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 500 PM HST Fri Jul 16 2021 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 170232 TCDEP1 Hurricane Felicia Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062021 500 PM HST Fri Jul 16 2021 Felicia continues to exhibit characteristics of a classic major hurricane. The eye remains clear while the CDO is symmetrical with uniform cold cloud tops surrounding the center. The latest Dvorak T-numbers from TAFB and SAB support keeping the initial intensity at 115 kt for this advisory. Felicia is a small hurricane, and recent ASCAT overpasses showed that the tropical-storm-force winds extend only about 40-50 n mi from the center. Since earlier this afternoon, the hurricane has been moving south of due west, or 260/08 kt. A strong ridge to the north of the Felicia is expected to maintain it on a generally westward motion for the next several days. Late in the forecast period, the model guidance has trended toward a slightly faster forward motion. The latest NHC forecast track is close to the previous one through 72 h, but now lies in between the previous forecast and the track consensus guidance thereafter. Felicia is expected to move over gradually decreasing SSTs over the next few days which should induce a slow weakening trend beginning later tonight or on Saturday. Although the hurricane is surrounded by dry air, it is maintaining an annular structure while it is expected to remain in an environment of low vertical wind shear for at least a few more days. These factors may prevent this dry air from entraining into the cyclone's circulation for some time. Because of this, the latest NHC intensity prediction remains on the high end of the guidance for the entire forecast period, with the main factor contributing to weakening being the cooler SSTs. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/0300Z 14.8N 123.2W 115 KT 130 MPH 12H 17/1200Z 14.6N 124.5W 110 KT 125 MPH 24H 18/0000Z 14.7N 126.1W 100 KT 115 MPH 36H 18/1200Z 15.1N 128.0W 95 KT 110 MPH 48H 19/0000Z 15.4N 129.9W 85 KT 100 MPH 60H 19/1200Z 15.5N 131.9W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 20/0000Z 15.5N 134.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 21/0000Z 14.7N 138.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 22/0000Z 13.9N 143.2W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Latto

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Hurricane Felicia Forecast Advisory Number 12

2021-07-17 04:32:02| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0300 UTC SAT JUL 17 2021 873 WTPZ21 KNHC 170231 TCMEP1 HURRICANE FELICIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062021 0300 UTC SAT JUL 17 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 123.2W AT 17/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 260 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 954 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 90SE 90SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 123.2W AT 17/0300Z AT 17/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 122.8W FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 14.6N 124.5W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 14.7N 126.1W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 15.1N 128.0W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 15.4N 129.9W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 15.5N 131.9W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 15.5N 134.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 21/0000Z 14.7N 138.2W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 22/0000Z 13.9N 143.2W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.8N 123.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/0900Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO

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Hurricane Felicia Forecast Discussion Number 10

2021-07-16 16:52:52| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 800 AM PDT Fri Jul 16 2021 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 161452 CCA TCDEP1 Hurricane Felicia Discussion Number 10...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062021 800 AM PDT Fri Jul 16 2021 Corrected 24-hour forecast position Compact Hurricane Felicia has continued to rapidly strengthen this morning with a well-defined, warm (>15C) clear eye now evident in infrared satellite imagery. However, the convective cloud tops surrounding the eye have warmed by almost 10 deg C during the past several hours, and a 1022Z ATMS microwave satellite pass showed the inner core convection a little less organized. Subjective satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB were a consensus T6.0/115 kt and objective estimates from UW-CIMSS ADT over the past couple of hours have averaged T5.7/105 kt. The initial intensity is raised to 110 kt, and just below category 4 strength, for this advisory based on a blend of the various satellite intensity estimates and the slightly degraded aforementioned convective features. Felicia is moving west-southwestward or 255/07 kt. Strong deep-layer ridging to the north of the hurricane is expected to keep Felicia moving west-southwestward for the next 12-24 h. Thereafter, the global and regional models all show the ridge relaxing somewhat, which should allow Felicia to move more westward in the 24-120-hour forecast period. The new NHC track forecast is essentially on top of and just an update of the previous advisory track, and lies near the middle of the tightly packed simple and corrected consensus models TVCE, GFEX, and NOAA-HCCA. Some additional slight strengthening could occur this morning due to low vertical shear and warm SSTs conditions, with Felicia briefly becoming a category 4 hurricane. However, the warm water beneath the powerful hurricane isn't very deep as indicated by upper-ocean heat content values currently only around 5 units, which suggests that cold upwelling could begin at any time during the next 12 hours. Ocean heat content values are forecast to remain below 10 units from 24-96 hours, and decreasing to less than zero thereafter. Thus, slow weakening is forecast to begin by 24 h and continue through the remainder of the forecast period despite the favorable low (

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Hurricane Felicia Wind Speed Probabilities Number 10

2021-07-16 16:50:30| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 1500 UTC FRI JUL 16 2021 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 161449 CCA PWSEP1 HURRICANE FELICIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10...CORRECTED NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062021 1500 UTC FRI JUL 16 2021 CORRECTED 24-HOUR PROBABILITIES AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FELICIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 121.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 110 KTS...125 MPH...205 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 10N 125W 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 125W 34 1 74(75) 19(94) 1(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) 15N 125W 50 X 38(38) 38(76) 1(77) X(77) X(77) X(77) 15N 125W 64 X 10(10) 36(46) X(46) X(46) X(46) X(46) 10N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) 15N 130W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 21(23) 61(84) 2(86) 1(87) 15N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 48(53) 1(54) X(54) 15N 130W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 28(29) 1(30) X(30) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) 10N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) 15N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 42(49) 9(58) 15N 135W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 16(17) 5(22) 15N 135W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 3( 9) 20N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 10N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 15N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 15(17) 15N 140W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) $$ FORECASTER STEWART

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Hurricane Felicia Forecast Advisory Number 10

2021-07-16 16:49:21| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 1500 UTC FRI JUL 16 2021 445 WTPZ21 KNHC 161448 CCA TCMEP1 HURRICANE FELICIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10...CORRECTED NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062021 1500 UTC FRI JUL 16 2021 CORRECTED 24-HOUR FORECAST POSITION THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 121.6W AT 16/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 255 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 962 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 60SE 90SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 121.6W AT 16/1500Z AT 16/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 121.2W FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 14.8N 122.7W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 14.6N 124.3W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 14.6N 126.0W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 14.7N 127.8W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 14.8N 129.6W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 14.8N 131.4W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 20/1200Z 14.4N 135.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 21/1200Z 13.7N 138.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.0N 121.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/2100Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART

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