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Tropical Storm Victor Public Advisory Number 4
2021-09-30 10:42:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 800 AM CVT Thu Sep 30 2021 000 WTNT35 KNHC 300842 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Victor Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202021 800 AM CVT Thu Sep 30 2021 ...VICTOR A LITTLE STRONGER... SUMMARY OF 800 AM CVT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...8.7N 27.3W ABOUT 550 MI...885 KM SSW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM CVT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Victor was located near latitude 8.7 North, longitude 27.3 West. Victor is moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A west-northwest to northwest motion over the eastern tropical Atlantic is expected through the weekend. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast, and Victor could become a hurricane on Friday. A weakening trend is expected to begin over the weekend. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM CVT. $$ Forecaster Berg
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Tropical Storm Victor Forecast Advisory Number 4
2021-09-30 10:42:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC THU SEP 30 2021 000 WTNT25 KNHC 300842 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM VICTOR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202021 0900 UTC THU SEP 30 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 8.7N 27.3W AT 30/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 50NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 105SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 8.7N 27.3W AT 30/0900Z AT 30/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 8.5N 26.8W FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 9.4N 28.8W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 90NE 50SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 10.2N 30.6W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 60SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 11.2N 32.3W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 70SE 40SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 12.6N 33.8W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 14.4N 35.3W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 16.6N 37.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 30SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 04/0600Z 22.0N 40.2W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 05/0600Z 27.3N 41.9W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 8.7N 27.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Hurricane Sam Forecast Discussion Number 30
2021-09-30 04:56:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Wed Sep 29 2021 000 WTNT43 KNHC 300256 TCDAT3 Hurricane Sam Discussion Number 30 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182021 1100 PM AST Wed Sep 29 2021 Sam is intensifying tonight after completing an eyewall replacement cycle. A recent NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft showed peak 700 mb flight-level winds of 138 kt, multiple SFMR surface winds of 120 kt or greater, plus falling central pressure to about 940 mb. This deepening trend is also seen on recent satellite imagery, with significant warming within the eye noted. These data support raising the initial intensity to 125 kt for this advisory. It is of note that the NOAA mission has been quite helpful for both the size and intensity analysis, with dropsondes and SFMR data showing that the hurricane has grown quite a bit since earlier today, mostly on the eastern side. Additionally, reflectivity data from the core confirmed the end of the eyewall replacement cycle. The hurricane could strengthen a little more overnight while it moves over a warm ocean eddy in fairly light shear. Afterward, gradually cooling SSTs, falling ocean heat content, and the inevitable future eyewall replacement cycles should cause a weakening trend. However, this will likely not be as steady as shown below, and significant deviations (upward or downward) from the forecast can be expected. Faster weakening is expected by the weekend due to cool SSTs and increasing shear. The new forecast is close to the intensity consensus, and is a little higher than the previous NHC prediction early on, primarily due to the initial wind speed. Sam has sped up tonight, now estimated at 315/10 kt. It sounds like a broken record, but there are no changes to the forecast during the first few days as model guidance is in excellent agreement on a gradually rightward-curving track, passing a couple of hundred n mi or more east of Bermuda. Afterward, guidance is actually in worse agreement over the weekend, with widely divergent solutions from an upper-level trough picking up Sam and turning it north toward Newfoundland or the trough leaving Sam behind, causing a slow eastward motion. The trend in the guidance is for a slower motion at long range, so I've elected to keep the day 4 and 5 points almost the same as the previous advisory, just a hair faster than the latest consensus aids. Key Messages: 1. Swells generated by Sam will impact the Lesser Antilles during the next several days. Swells are expected to reach Bermuda and the Bahamas in a day or so, and then spread to the United States east coast by this weekend. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. 2. A Tropical Storm Watch could be required for Bermuda on Thursday, and interests there should monitor the progress of Sam. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/0300Z 20.6N 58.4W 125 KT 145 MPH 12H 30/1200Z 21.9N 59.6W 130 KT 150 MPH 24H 01/0000Z 24.1N 60.9W 125 KT 145 MPH 36H 01/1200Z 26.8N 61.8W 120 KT 140 MPH 48H 02/0000Z 29.6N 61.8W 115 KT 130 MPH 60H 02/1200Z 32.2N 60.7W 110 KT 125 MPH 72H 03/0000Z 34.3N 59.2W 100 KT 115 MPH 96H 04/0000Z 37.5N 54.5W 85 KT 100 MPH 120H 05/0000Z 42.0N 48.5W 70 KT 80 MPH $$ Forecaster Blake
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Hurricane Sam Wind Speed Probabilities Number 30
2021-09-30 04:53:26| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC THU SEP 30 2021 000 FONT13 KNHC 300253 PWSAT3 HURRICANE SAM WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 30 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182021 0300 UTC THU SEP 30 2021 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SAM WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 58.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 125 KTS...145 MPH...230 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) BERMUDA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 14(23) 1(24) X(24) BERMUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
Hurricane Sam Public Advisory Number 30
2021-09-30 04:52:50| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Wed Sep 29 2021 760 WTNT33 KNHC 300252 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Sam Advisory Number 30 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182021 1100 PM AST Wed Sep 29 2021 ...SAM GAINING STRENGTH AND SIZE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.6N 58.4W ABOUT 350 MI...560 KM ENE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS ABOUT 900 MI...1445 KM SSE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...940 MB...27.76 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of Sam. A Tropical Storm Watch could be required for the island on Thursday. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Sam was located near latitude 20.6 North, longitude 58.4 West. Sam is moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general motion with an increase in forward speed is expected during the next couple of days. A turn toward the north and northeast is anticipated by Friday night. On the forecast track, Sam will continue to pass well to the east-northeast of the northern Leeward Islands through tonight, and pass to the east of Bermuda early Saturday. Data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 145 mph (230 km/h) with higher gusts. Sam is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are expected during the next couple of days, but Sam is forecast to remain a major hurricane through late this week, with more significant weakening anticipated over the weekend. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 65 miles (100 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km). The estimated minimum central pressure based on NOAA Hurricane Hunter data is 940 mb (27.76 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Sam can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC. SURF: Swells generated by Sam will impact the Lesser Antilles during the next several days. Swells are expected to reach Bermuda and the Bahamas in a day or so, and then spread to the United States east coast by this weekend. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Blake
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