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Hurricane Sam Public Advisory Number 28
2021-09-29 16:41:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Wed Sep 29 2021 000 WTNT33 KNHC 291441 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Sam Advisory Number 28 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182021 1100 AM AST Wed Sep 29 2021 ...POWERFUL SAM CONTINUES MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.4N 57.0W ABOUT 405 MI...655 KM ENE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...949 MB...28.03 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Sam was located near latitude 19.4 North, longitude 57.0 West. Sam is moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general motion with an increase in forward speed is expected during the next couple of days. A turn toward the north is forecast by Friday. On the forecast track, Sam will pass well to the east-northeast of the northern Leeward Islands through tonight. Maximum sustained winds are near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher gusts. Sam is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are expected during the next couple of days, but Sam is forecast to remain a major hurricane through late this week. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km). The minimum central pressure estimated from NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft observations is 949 mb (28.03 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Sam can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC. SURF: Swells generated by Sam will impact the Lesser Antilles during the next several days. Swells are expected to reach Bermuda and the Bahamas in a day or so, and then spread to the United States east coast by this weekend. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Hurricane Sam Forecast Advisory Number 28
2021-09-29 16:41:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC WED SEP 29 2021 000 WTNT23 KNHC 291441 TCMAT3 HURRICANE SAM FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 28 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182021 1500 UTC WED SEP 29 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 57.0W AT 29/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 949 MB EYE DIAMETER 20 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT. 64 KT....... 35NE 30SE 25SW 30NW. 50 KT....... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT.......110NE 100SE 80SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 105SE 150SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 57.0W AT 29/1500Z AT 29/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 56.6W FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 20.3N 58.1W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 30SE 25SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 110SE 90SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 21.8N 59.6W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 30SE 25SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 110SE 90SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 23.9N 61.0W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 90SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 26.6N 61.8W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 50 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...130NE 140SE 90SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 29.4N 61.8W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...140NE 140SE 100SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 32.0N 60.9W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 120SW 130NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 03/1200Z 36.2N 57.3W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 04/1200Z 39.5N 53.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.4N 57.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/2100Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Tropical Depression Twenty Forecast Discussion Number 1
2021-09-29 16:36:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 200 PM CVT Wed Sep 29 2021 000 WTNT45 KNHC 291436 TCDAT5 Tropical Depression Twenty Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202021 200 PM CVT Wed Sep 29 2021 The area of low pressure located over the far eastern tropical Atlantic that NHC has been monitoring has now become a tropical depression, the twentieth tropical cyclone of the 2021 Atlantic hurricane season. Satellite images indicate that the system is producing a large area of showers and thunderstorms that have become fairly well organized around the center. An ASCAT-A pass from a few hours ago indicated that the system now has a well-defined circulation and that the radius of maximum wind is 30-40 n mi north of the center. The initial intensity is set at 30 kt based on the ASCAT data and the T2.0/30 kt Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB. The minimum pressure of 1007 mb is partially based on data from a ship report that passed near the depression. Based on satellite fixes, the depression appears to be moving west-northwestward at about 12 kt. The system is currently located on the south side of a deep-layer ridge, and that feature should keep the cyclone on a west-northwest track during the next couple of days. After that time, the models show a mid- to upper-level low developing over the central tropical Atlantic, which erodes the western portion of the ridge. This change in the steering flow should cause the system to turn northwestward on Friday and then northward toward the end of the forecast period. Although the models generally agree on the evolution of the large-scale pattern, there are notable differences in the details, which leads to a fair amount of spread concerning when and where the turn to the north occurs. The GFS is farthest east while the ECMWF shows the westernmost solution. The NHC track forecast lies between those models and is near the TVCA multi-model consensus. The depression is expected to remain in conducive environmental conditions for strengthening during the next 2 or 3 days. During that time period, the storm is forecast to move over 28-29 deg C waters while embedded within an airmass of high mid-level moisture and very low wind shear (less than 10 kt). Therefore, steady strengthening seems likely, and the NHC forecast brings the system to a tropical storm by tonight and a hurricane in a couple of days. Beyond a few days, however, the models show a pronounced increase in southwesterly shear and a notably drier atmosphere. These unfavorable conditions should end the opportunity for strengthening and promote a weakening trend. The NHC intensity forecast is a near a blend of the HCCA, IVCN, and IVDR consensus models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/1500Z 8.3N 24.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 30/0000Z 8.8N 25.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 30/1200Z 9.5N 27.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 01/0000Z 10.3N 29.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 01/1200Z 11.2N 31.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 60H 02/0000Z 12.4N 33.7W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 02/1200Z 14.0N 35.4W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 03/1200Z 18.4N 38.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 04/1200Z 24.3N 40.9W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Depression Twenty Public Advisory Number 1
2021-09-29 16:35:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 200 PM CVT Wed Sep 29 2021 000 WTNT35 KNHC 291435 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Twenty Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202021 200 PM CVT Wed Sep 29 2021 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE FAR EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 200 PM CVT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...8.3N 24.6W ABOUT 535 MI...860 KM S OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM CVT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Twenty was located near latitude 8.3 North, longitude 24.6 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue during the next couple of days, followed by a turn to the northwest. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady strengthening is forecast, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm tonight and a hurricane in a couple of days. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM CVT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Depression Twenty Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1
2021-09-29 16:35:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC WED SEP 29 2021 000 FONT15 KNHC 291435 PWSAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202021 1500 UTC WED SEP 29 2021 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 8.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 24.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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