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Hurricane Sam Wind Speed Probabilities Number 31
2021-09-30 10:54:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC THU SEP 30 2021 000 FONT13 KNHC 300854 PWSAT3 HURRICANE SAM WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 31 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182021 0900 UTC THU SEP 30 2021 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SAM WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 59.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 125 KTS...145 MPH...230 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) HIBERNIA OILFD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) HIBERNIA OILFD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) BERMUDA 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 13(16) 7(23) X(23) X(23) BERMUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
Hurricane Sam Forecast Advisory Number 31
2021-09-30 10:53:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC THU SEP 30 2021 000 WTNT23 KNHC 300853 TCMAT3 HURRICANE SAM FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 31 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182021 0900 UTC THU SEP 30 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR BERMUDA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BERMUDA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.5N 59.1W AT 30/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 937 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 125 KT WITH GUSTS TO 150 KT. 64 KT....... 50NE 40SE 35SW 40NW. 50 KT....... 80NE 70SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT.......130NE 120SE 90SW 110NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 150SE 150SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.5N 59.1W AT 30/0900Z AT 30/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.0N 58.8W FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 23.0N 60.2W MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 45SE 35SW 45NW. 50 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...130NE 120SE 90SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 25.6N 61.4W MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 45SE 35SW 45NW. 50 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...130NE 130SE 90SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 28.4N 61.8W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 45SE 40SW 45NW. 50 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...140NE 140SE 100SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 31.1N 61.3W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 50 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 120SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 33.5N 59.9W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...160NE 180SE 130SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 35.5N 58.0W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 80SE 70SW 80NW. 34 KT...160NE 180SE 140SW 160NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 04/0600Z 38.7N 52.6W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 05/0600Z 44.3N 45.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.5N 59.1W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 30/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Hurricane Sam Public Advisory Number 31
2021-09-30 10:53:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Thu Sep 30 2021 000 WTNT33 KNHC 300853 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Sam Advisory Number 31 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182021 500 AM AST Thu Sep 30 2021 ...POWERFUL HURRICANE SAM CONTINUES NORTHWESTWARD... ...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR BERMUDA... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.5N 59.1W ABOUT 345 MI...555 KM NE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS ABOUT 825 MI...1325 KM SSE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...937 MB...27.67 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Bermuda Weather Service has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for Bermuda. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Bermuda A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Sam was located near latitude 21.5 North, longitude 59.1 West. Sam is moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general motion with an increase in forward speed is expected through tonight. A turn toward the north is anticipated by late Friday, and a northeastward motion is forecast to begin on Saturday. On the forecast track, the core of Sam will continue to pass well to the northeast of the northern Leeward Islands this morning, and pass to the east of Bermuda early Saturday. Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the maximum sustained winds are near 145 mph (230 km/h) with higher gusts. Sam is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are expected during the next couple of days, but Sam is forecast to remain a major hurricane through Saturday, with more significant weakening anticipated later in the weekend. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km). NOAA buoy 41044 has recently measured a peak one-minute sustained wind of 78 mph (126 km/h) and a gust to 98 mph (158 km/h). The latest minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force Reserve reconnaissance data is 937 mb (27.67 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Sam can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC, and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?key_messages. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible on Bermuda beginning Friday night or early Saturday. SURF: Swells generated by Sam will impact the Northern Leeward Islands and the Greater Antilles, including Puerto Rico, during the next few days. Swells are expected to reach Bermuda and the Bahamas by Friday, and then spread to the United States east coast by this weekend. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST. Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Storm Victor Forecast Discussion Number 4
2021-09-30 10:42:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 800 AM CVT Thu Sep 30 2021 000 WTNT45 KNHC 300842 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Victor Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202021 800 AM CVT Thu Sep 30 2021 Victor is gradually getting better organized. AMSR2 microwave data from 0300 UTC showed that the low-level circulation has become more defined, with most convective banding features located west and southwest of the center. Victor's intensity is now estimated to be 40 kt based on Dvorak estimates of T3.0 and T2.5 from TAFB and SAB, respectively, and objective numbers from UW-CIMSS around 40 kt. Victor's vector is toward the west-northwest (290 degrees) at 11 kt, and this heading should continue for the next 36 hours while the storm is located to the south a deep-layer ridge located over the subtropical eastern and central Atlantic. In about 2 days, a mid- to upper-level low is forecast to develop over the central Atlantic, causing Victor to curve around the western periphery of the ridge, which gets shunted eastward between the Azores and the Canary Islands. The track models are in generally good agreement on this scenario, and most of them are clustered tightly among each other. Two notable exceptions, which are discounted at this time, are the HWRF and ECMWF models. The HWRF, which is stronger than the other models, is way off to the east, while the ECMWF lies off to the south and west, a tendency that we've observed recently with other storms in the deep tropics. The NHC track forecast is not changed much from the previous iteration and lies close to the GFS, HCCA, Florida State Superensemble, and TVCA solutions. If the low-level circulation is in fact becoming better defined as shown by microwave imagery, Victor should be able to continue strengthening for the next couple of days in an environment of low vertical shear and over warm waters of roughly 28 degrees Celsius. The NHC intensity forecast is near the upper end of the guidance during this period and continues to show Victor reaching hurricane strength in about 36 hours. Once the aforementioned mid- to upper-level low forms, strong southerly to southwesterly deep-layer shear is expected to develop over Victor and induce a weakening trend in about 3 days. The intensity forecast has been lowered a bit during the latter part of the forecast period given the trends in the intensity models, but it is not as low as the HCCA and IVCN aids. Interestingly, many of the global models suggest that the shear could be so strong that Victor might weaken to a depression or even degenerate into a remnant low by day 5. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/0900Z 8.7N 27.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 30/1800Z 9.4N 28.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 01/0600Z 10.2N 30.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 01/1800Z 11.2N 32.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 02/0600Z 12.6N 33.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 60H 02/1800Z 14.4N 35.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 03/0600Z 16.6N 37.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 04/0600Z 22.0N 40.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 05/0600Z 27.3N 41.9W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg
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victor
Tropical Storm Victor Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4
2021-09-30 10:42:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC THU SEP 30 2021 000 FONT15 KNHC 300842 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM VICTOR WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202021 0900 UTC THU SEP 30 2021 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM VICTOR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 8.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 27.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BERG
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