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Tropical Depression Norbert Forecast Advisory Number 24
2020-10-14 22:32:16| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC WED OCT 14 2020 235 WTPZ24 KNHC 142032 TCMEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NORBERT FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 24 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192020 2100 UTC WED OCT 14 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.7N 114.9W AT 14/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.7N 114.9W AT 14/2100Z AT 14/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.3N 114.7W FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 25.9N 115.7W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 26.9N 115.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.7N 114.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0300Z $$ FORECASTER REINHART
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Tropical Storm Norbert Forecast Discussion Number 23
2020-10-14 16:46:13| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM MDT Wed Oct 14 2020 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 141446 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Norbert Discussion Number 23 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192020 900 AM MDT Wed Oct 14 2020 Recent satellite imagery suggests Norbert is beginning to feel the effects of deep-layer shear and drier mid-level air associated with a mid- to upper-level low pressure system centered to its west-northwest. While Norbert still shows signs of organization, the deepest convection is now displaced to the north of the estimated center position. The advisory intensity is held at 35 kt this morning based on objective and subjective current intensity Dvorak estimates from UW-CIMSS, SAB, and TAFB. It is likely that Norbert has peaked in terms of its intensity. Norbert's estimated initial motion is 325/13 kt. The cyclone is moving northwestward between a mid-level ridge over northern Mexico and the aforementioned mid- to upper-level low. This motion is expected to continue for the next 24 h, with a gradual decrease in forward speed as the upper low pulls away from Norbert. There is increasing spread noted in the model track guidance as the steering flow weakens between 24-48 h, but the general trend is for a slightly more northward motion during this time. Only minor adjustments were made to the official NHC track forecast, which remains close to the various consensus aids including TVCE and HCCA. Increasing deep-layer shear, drier mid-level air, and cooler sea-surface temperatures are expected to induce a weakening trend beginning later today, and Norbert will likely become a tropical depression this afternoon. The GFS simulated satellite imagery suggests Norbert will lose its deep convection within the next 24-36 h, and the official NHC forecast shows the system degenerating to a remnant low before dissipation at 48 h. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/1500Z 23.1N 114.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 15/0000Z 24.4N 115.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 15/1200Z 25.6N 115.7W 25 KT 30 MPH 36H 16/0000Z 26.6N 115.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 16/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Reinhart/Beven
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Tropical Storm Norbert Public Advisory Number 23
2020-10-14 16:44:41| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM MDT Wed Oct 14 2020 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 141444 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Norbert Advisory Number 23 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192020 900 AM MDT Wed Oct 14 2020 ...NORBERT EXPECTED TO BEGIN WEAKENING LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.1N 114.0W ABOUT 160 MI...255 KM SW OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO ABOUT 260 MI...420 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Norbert was located near latitude 23.1 North, longitude 114.0 West. Norbert is moving toward the northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h). A northwestward motion with a gradual decrease in forward speed is expected through tonight, followed by a slower north-northwestward or northward motion on Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Norbert is expected to begin weakening later today and become a remnant low late tonight or on Thursday. The remnant low is forecast to dissipate by Thursday night. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Reinhart/Beven
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Tropical Storm Norbert Wind Speed Probabilities Number 23
2020-10-14 16:44:41| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC WED OCT 14 2020 442 FOPZ14 KNHC 141444 PWSEP4 TROPICAL STORM NORBERT WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 23 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192020 1500 UTC WED OCT 14 2020 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NORBERT WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 114.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 25N 115W 34 6 11(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) $$ FORECASTER REINHART/BEVEN
Tropical Storm Norbert Forecast Advisory Number 23
2020-10-14 16:44:14| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC WED OCT 14 2020 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 141444 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM NORBERT FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 23 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192020 1500 UTC WED OCT 14 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.1N 114.0W AT 14/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.1N 114.0W AT 14/1500Z AT 14/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.7N 113.7W FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 24.4N 115.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 25.6N 115.7W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 26.6N 115.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.1N 114.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/2100Z $$ FORECASTER REINHART/BEVEN
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