je.st
news
Tag: number
Post-Tropical Cyclone Delta Public Advisory Number 25
2020-10-10 22:40:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
The NHC has issued its final advisory on this system. Public Advisories from the Weather Prediction Center will provide updates as long as the system remains a flood threat. Issued at 400 PM CDT Sat Oct 10 2020
Tags: number
public
delta
advisory
Tropical Depression Delta Forecast Discussion Number 24
2020-10-10 16:41:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Sat Oct 10 2020 000 WTNT41 KNHC 101441 TCDAT1 Tropical Depression Delta Discussion Number 24 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL262020 1000 AM CDT Sat Oct 10 2020 Surface observations, Doppler radar data, and satellite imagery indicate that Delta has continued to weaken as it moves from northeastern Louisiana into western Mississippi. There are no recent surface observations of sustained tropical-storm-force winds in the areas where the radar data show the strongest winds are occurring, so based on this the initial intensity is reduced to 30 kt. It should be noted that wind gusts to tropical-storm force are still occurring over portions of northern Mississippi and southeastern Arkansas, and these should continue through this afternoon. The initial motion is now northeastward or 035/14. The flow between a mid-to upper-level ridge over the Gulf of Mexico and the mid-latitude westerlies over the United States should steer Delta or its remnants generally northeastward until the system dissipates. The new forecast track has only minor adjustments from the previous forecast, and it lies near the consensus models. Continued weakening is expected, and Delta is forecast to degenerate to a remnant low pressure area in about 24 h. The global models are in good agreement that the cyclone should weaken to a trough between 48-60 h, and the intensity forecast follows this scenario. This is the last advisory on Delta issued by the National Hurricane Center. Future information on this system can be found in Public Advisories issued by the Weather Prediction Center beginning at 4 PM CDT, under AWIPS header TCPAT1, WMO header WTNT31 KWNH, and on the web at http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov. Key Messages: 1. Water levels will continue to subside today along the Louisiana coast. Consult products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office for additional information. 2. Tropical-storm-force wind gusts will persist for a few more hours over portions of northern Mississippi and southeastern Arkansas. 3. Heavy rainfall will lead to flash flooding and minor river flooding across portions of the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys today, and into the Southern Appalachians through Sunday. Minor to major river flooding will continue across portions of Louisiana and Mississippi though much of next week. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/1500Z 33.1N 90.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 12H 11/0000Z 34.1N 89.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 24H 11/1200Z 35.5N 87.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 12/0000Z 37.5N 84.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 12/1200Z 39.7N 82.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 13/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
Tags: number
discussion
delta
tropical
Tropical Depression Delta Forecast Advisory Number 24
2020-10-10 16:41:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT OCT 10 2020 000 WTNT21 KNHC 101441 TCMAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION DELTA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 24 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL262020 1500 UTC SAT OCT 10 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.1N 90.8W AT 10/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 35 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.1N 90.8W AT 10/1500Z AT 10/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.6N 91.2W FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 34.1N 89.3W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 35.5N 87.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 37.5N 84.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 39.7N 82.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.1N 90.8W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FUTURE INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN PUBLIC ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER BEGINNING AT 2100Z, UNDER AWIPS HEADER TCPAT1, WMO HEADER WTNT31 KWNH, AND ON THE WEB AT HTTP://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV. $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
Tags: number
delta
advisory
tropical
Tropical Depression Delta Wind Speed Probabilities Number 24
2020-10-10 16:41:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT OCT 10 2020 000 FONT11 KNHC 101441 PWSAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION DELTA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 24 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL262020 1500 UTC SAT OCT 10 2020 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION DELTA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 33.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 90.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT JACKSON MS 34 14 X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
Tropical Depression Delta Public Advisory Number 24
2020-10-10 16:41:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Sat Oct 10 2020 000 WTNT31 KNHC 101441 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Delta Advisory Number 24 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL262020 1000 AM CDT Sat Oct 10 2020 ...DELTA WEAKENS TO A DEPRESSION OVER WESTERN MISSISSIPPI... ...HEAVY RAIN THREAT CONTINUES... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...33.1N 90.8W ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM NNW OF JACKSON MISSISSIPPI MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Delta was located near latitude 33.1 North, longitude 90.8 West. The depression is moving toward the northeast near 16 mph (26 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue with a decrease in forward speed through Sunday night. On the forecast track, the center of Delta should move across western and northern Mississippi today and into the Tennessee Valley tonight and Sunday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is expected, and Delta is expected to decay to a remnant low pressure area on Sunday. Greenwood, Mississippi, recently reported a wind gust of 43 mph (69 km/h), and an automated station near Monticello, Arkansas, recently reported a wind gust of 41 mph (66 km/h). The minimum central pressure estimated from surface observations is 994 mb (29.36 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Delta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml. WIND: Wind gusts to tropical-storm force are possible this afternoon over portions of northern Mississippi and southeastern Arkansas. STORM SURGE: Water levels will continue to subside today along the Louisiana coast. Consult products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office for additional information. RAINFALL: For eastern Arkansas and northern Mississippi, Delta is expected to produce an additional 2 to 4 inches of rain, with isolated storm totals of 10 inches. These rainfall amounts will lead to flash, urban, small stream, and minor river flooding. As the remnants of Delta move further inland, 1 to 3 inches of rain, with locally higher amounts, are expected in northern Alabama and the Tennessee Valley into the Mid-Atlantic through the weekend. There is a potential for 3 to 6 inches in the Southern to Central Appalachians, which could lead to flash, urban, small stream, along with isolated minor river flooding. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible across parts of Alabama, the Florida Panhandle, and western Georgia through early tonight. SURF: Swells from Delta are gradually subsiding along the northern Gulf coast. Please consult products from your local weather office for additional information. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last Public Advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system. Future information on this system can be found in Public Advisories issued by the Weather Prediction Center beginning at 4 PM CDT, under AWIPS header TCPAT1, WMO header WTNT31 KWNH, and on the web at http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov. $$ Forecaster Beven
Tags: number
public
delta
advisory
Sites : [707] [708] [709] [710] [711] [712] [713] [714] [715] [716] [717] [718] [719] [720] [721] [722] [723] [724] [725] [726] next »