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Hurricane Delta Forecast Advisory Number 22
2020-10-10 04:36:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT OCT 10 2020 000 WTNT21 KNHC 100236 TCMAT1 HURRICANE DELTA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL262020 0300 UTC SAT OCT 10 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE STORM SURGE WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED FROM SABINE PASS...TX TO CAMERON...LOUISIANA INCLUDING CALCASIEU LAKE. THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING WEST OF HIGH ISLAND TEXAS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CAMERON TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER...LOUISIANA INCLUDING VERMILION BAY AND LAKE BORGNE A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * HIGH ISLAND TEXAS TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * EAST OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER...INCLUDING NEW ORLEANS * LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.6N 92.6W AT 10/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 25 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 972 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 30SE 25SW 25NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT.......120NE 140SE 80SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 210SE 240SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.6N 92.6W AT 10/0300Z AT 10/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.0N 92.9W FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 32.2N 91.6W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 33.7N 89.9W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 35.1N 87.7W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 37.0N 85.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 39.5N 81.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.6N 92.6W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 10/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/0900Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Tropical Depression Norbert Public Advisory Number 18
2020-10-10 04:36:21| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 PM MDT Fri Oct 09 2020 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 100236 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Norbert Advisory Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192020 900 PM MDT Fri Oct 09 2020 ...NORBERT REMAINS A WEAK TROPICAL DEPRESSION... SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.0N 106.8W ABOUT 385 MI...615 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Norbert was located near latitude 14.0 North, longitude 106.8 West. The depression is moving toward the northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h). A slow northwestward motion is expected over the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next couple of days, and Norbert is expected to dissipate by Sunday night. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Reinhart/Berg
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Tropical Depression Norbert Forecast Advisory Number 18
2020-10-10 04:34:50| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT OCT 10 2020 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 100234 TCMEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NORBERT FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192020 0300 UTC SAT OCT 10 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 106.8W AT 10/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 106.8W AT 10/0300Z AT 10/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 106.6W FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 14.4N 107.0W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 14.9N 107.3W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 15.1N 107.4W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 15.3N 107.4W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.0N 106.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/0900Z $$ FORECASTER REINHART/BERG
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Hurricane Delta Public Advisory Number 21A
2020-10-10 01:52:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 700 PM CDT Fri Oct 09 2020 000 WTNT31 KNHC 092352 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Hurricane Delta Intermediate Advisory Number 21A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL262020 700 PM CDT Fri Oct 09 2020 ...DELTA JUST INLAND ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA COAST... ...HURRICANE CONDITIONS AND A LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE OCCURRING WITHIN THE WARNING AREA... SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...30.0N 93.0W ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM WSW OF JENNINGS LOUISIANA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...971 MB...28.67 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Storm Surge Warning from High Island, Texas to Sabine Pass has been discontinued. The Tropical Storm Warning west of San Luis Pass, Texas has been discontinued. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * East of Sabine Pass to the Mouth of the Pearl River including Calcasieu Lake, Vermilion Bay, and Lake Borgne A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * High Island Texas to Morgan City Louisiana A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * West of High Island to San Luis Pass, Texas * East of Morgan City Louisiana to the mouth of the Pearl River, including New Orleans * Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Delta was located near latitude 30.0 North, longitude 93.0 West. Delta is moving toward the north-northeast near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue through Saturday morning. A motion toward the northeast is then expected through Sunday night. On the forecast track, the center of Delta should move across central and northeastern Louisiana tonight and Saturday morning. After that time, the system is forecast to move across northern Mississippi into the Tennessee Valley. Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher gusts. Rapid weakening is expected overnight and Saturday. Delta is forecast to weaken to a tropical storm tonight and to a tropical depression on Saturday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km). The National Weather Service office at Lake Charles reported sustained winds of 64 mph (103 km/h) with gusts to 95 mph (153 km/h) at the airport. The estimated minimum central pressure is 971 mb (28.67 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Delta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge, LA to Morgan City, LA including Vermilion Bay...7-11 ft Holly Beach, LA to Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge, LA...5-8 ft Morgan City, LA to Port Fourchon, LA...4-6 ft Sabine Pass to Holly Beach, LA...2-4 ft Calcasieu Lake...2-4 ft Port Fourchon, LA to the Mouth of the Pearl River...2-4 ft Lake Borgne...2-4 ft Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas...1-3 ft Mouth of the Pearl River to the AL/FL border including Mobile Bay...1-3 ft Sabine Lake...1-3 ft Port O'Connor, TX to Sabine Pass including Galveston Bay...1-3 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Hurricane conditions are occurring within the hurricane warning area, and should continue during the next few hours. Tropical storm conditions will continue within portions of the tropical storm warning areas through early Saturday. RAINFALL: Today through Saturday, Delta is expected to produce 5 to 10 inches of rain, with isolated maximum totals of 15 inches, from southwest into central Louisiana. These rainfall amounts will lead to significant flash, urban, small stream flooding, along with minor to major river flooding. For extreme east Texas into northern Louisiana, southern Arkansas, and western Mississippi, Delta is expected to produce 3 to 6 inches of rain, with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches. These rainfall amounts will lead to flash, urban, small stream, and isolated minor river flooding. As the remnants of Delta move farther inland, 1 to 3 inches of rain, with locally higher amounts, are expected in the Tennessee Valley and Mid Atlantic this weekend. There is a potential for 3 to 6 inches in the Southern Appalachians, which could lead to isolated flash, urban, and small stream flooding. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible through tonight over the southern portions of Louisiana and Mississippi. SURF: Swells from Delta are affecting portions of the northern and western Gulf coast. These swells are likely to cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Hurricane Delta Forecast Discussion Number 21
2020-10-09 22:56:14| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Fri Oct 09 2020 000 WTNT41 KNHC 092056 TCDAT1 Hurricane Delta Discussion Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL262020 400 PM CDT Fri Oct 09 2020 Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft and WSR-88D Doppler radar data indicate that Delta has weakened some more since the last advisory. The eye structure on the radar has become less organized, with about 50 percent of the eyewall remaining in the northern semicircle. The aircraft reported maximum 700-mb flight-level winds have decreased to the 100-105 kt range, along with maximum SFMR surface wind estimates in the 80-85 kt range. In addition, the central pressure has risen to near 966 mb. Based on these data, the initial intensity is lowered to 90 kt. The initial motion is now north-northeastward or 015/12 kt, with the hurricane moving between a deep-layer ridge over the eastern Gulf of Mexico and a mid- to upper-level trough over the U.S. Southern Plains. This motion should continue through the next 24 h or so, followed by a turn toward the northeast as Delta or its remnants move along the southern edge of the mid-latitude westerlies. While the track guidance remains tightly clustered, the guidance is a little faster than the previous run. So, the new track forecast is similar in direction, but slightly faster than the previous one. The forecast track has the center of Delta making landfall in southwestern Louisiana in the next few hours and then moving across central and northeastern Louisiana tonight and Saturday morning. After that, the system should move across northern Mississippi into the Tennessee Valley before it dissipates. Increasing vertical shear and decreasing oceanic heat content along the forecast track could cause a little more weakening in the last few hours before landfall. However, there will still be significant impacts from winds and storm surge (see Key Messages below). After landfall, rapid weakening is anticipated, with Delta expected to weaken to a tropical storm tonight and to a tropical depression by Saturday afternoon. As in the last advisory, the cyclone is forecast to dissipate between 60-72 h based on the consensus of the global models. Key Messages: 1. Life-threatening storm surge is occurring and will continue near and east of where Delta makes landfall this evening, and a Storm Surge Warning is in effect from High Island, Texas, to the Mouth of the Pearl River, Louisiana. The highest inundation of 7 to 11 feet is expected somewhere between Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge and Morgan City, Louisiana. 2. Hurricane-force winds are expected this afternoon and evening within portions of the Hurricane Warning area, especially along the coast of southwest Louisiana. Hurricane-force winds will also spread inland across portions of southern Louisiana near the path of Deltas center this evening and tonight. 3. Heavy rainfall will lead to significant flash flooding and minor to major river flooding in parts of Louisiana today and Saturday. Additional flooding is expected across portions of the central Gulf Coast into the Lower Mississippi Valley. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/2100Z 29.3N 93.2W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 10/0600Z 31.1N 92.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND 24H 10/1800Z 33.1N 91.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 36H 11/0600Z 34.4N 89.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 48H 11/1800Z 35.9N 87.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 60H 12/0600Z 37.6N 84.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 12/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
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