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Remnants of Norbert Forecast Discussion Number 19
2020-10-10 10:35:26| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Sat Oct 10 2020 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 100835 TCDEP4 Remnants Of Norbert Discussion Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192020 300 AM MDT Sat Oct 10 2020 Recent satellite imagery shows multiple low-level cloud swirls in the vicinity of Norbert's last estimated center position. A 0350Z ASCAT-A pass depicts a broad cyclonic circulation with at least two centers, and the only 20 kt or higher winds are displaced well to the southeast and likely associated with the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). In fact, the most well-defined circulation in the scatterometer data appears to have originated from the ITCZ and not Norbert. Additionally, Dvorak estimates from SAB and TAFB indicate the system is too weak to classify or barely classifiable. Therefore, this will be the final NHC advisory on Norbert as its remnants appear to have merged into a broader ITCZ circulation over the eastern Pacific Ocean. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/0900Z 13.8N 106.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...REMNANTS OF NORBERT 12H 10/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Reinhart/Zelinsky
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Remnants of Norbert Wind Speed Probabilities Number 19
2020-10-10 10:34:55| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT OCT 10 2020 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 100834 PWSEP4 REMNANTS OF NORBERT WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192020 0900 UTC SAT OCT 10 2020 AT 0900Z THE REMNANTS OF NORBERT WERE LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 106.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 20 KTS...25 MPH...35 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER REINHART/ZELINSKY
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Remnants of Norbert Public Advisory Number 19
2020-10-10 10:34:22| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Sat Oct 10 2020 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 100834 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Remnants Of Norbert Advisory Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192020 300 AM MDT Sat Oct 10 2020 ...NORBERT DISSIPATES WELL OFFSHORE OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.8N 106.7W ABOUT 395 MI...630 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...25 MPH...35 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the remnants of Norbert were located near latitude 13.8 North, longitude 106.7 West. The remnants of Norbert will likely drift northward over the next day or so. Maximum sustained winds are near 25 mph (35 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next day or so. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system. For additional information on the remnants of Norbert please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php $$ Forecaster Reinhart/Zelinsky
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Remnants of Norbert Forecast Advisory Number 19
2020-10-10 10:34:21| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT OCT 10 2020 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 100834 TCMEP4 REMNANTS OF NORBERT FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192020 0900 UTC SAT OCT 10 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. REMNANTS OF CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 106.7W AT 10/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 0 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 106.7W AT 10/0900Z AT 10/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 106.7W FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.8N 106.7W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANTS OF NORBERT PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC. $$ FORECASTER REINHART/ZELINSKY
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Tropical Storm Delta Public Advisory Number 22A
2020-10-10 07:55:50| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 100 AM CDT Sat Oct 10 2020 000 WTNT31 KNHC 100555 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Delta Intermediate Advisory Number 22A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL262020 100 AM CDT Sat Oct 10 2020 ...DELTA NOW A TROPICAL STORM... ...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AND HEAVY RAINS OCCURRING OVER MUCH OF LOUISIANA... SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...31.2N 92.3W ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM ESE OF ALEXANDRIA LOUISIANA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Hurricane Warning from High Island Texas to Morgan City Louisiana has been replaced with a Tropical Storm Warning. The Storm Surge Warning has been discontinued from Port Fourchon to Mouth of the Pearl River, Louisiana including Lake Borgne. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Cameron to Port Fourchon, Louisiana including Vermilion Bay. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * High Island Texas to the mouth of the Pearl River, including New Orleans * Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Delta was located near latitude 31.2 North, longitude 92.3 West. Delta is moving toward the north-northeast near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue through the morning. A motion toward the northeast is expected this afternoon through Sunday night. On the forecast track, the center of Delta should move across central and northeastern Louisiana this morning and across northern Mississippi and into the Tennessee Valley later today and Sunday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Continued weakening is forecast, and Delta should become a tropical depression later today. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km). A wind gust of 68 mph (110 km/h) was recently reported at LSU Tiger Stadium in Baton Rouge, Louisiana. Wind gusts of 55 mph (89 km/h) were recently reported at Adams County airport in Natchez, Mississippi and in Lacassine, Louisiana, and a gust to 59 mph (95 km/h) was just reported in Monroe, Louisiana. The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface observations is 985 mb (29.09 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Delta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge, LA to Morgan City, LA including Vermilion Bay...4-6 ft Cameron, LA to Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge, LA...2-4 ft Morgan City, LA to Port Fourchon, LA...2-4 ft Port Fourchon, LA to the AL/FL border including Lake Borgne, Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas and Mobile Bay...1-3 ft Port O'Connor, TX to Cameron, LA including Galveston Bay, Sabine Lake, and Calcasieu Lake...1-3 ft Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue within portions of the tropical storm warning area through the morning. RAINFALL: Through Saturday, Delta is expected to produce 5 to 10 inches of rain, with isolated maximum totals of 15 inches, from southwest into central Louisiana. These rainfall amounts will lead to significant flash, urban, small stream flooding, along with minor to major river flooding. For extreme eastern Texas into northern Louisiana, southern Arkansas, and western Mississippi, Delta is expected to produce 3 to 6 inches of rain, with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches. These rainfall amounts will lead to flash, urban, small stream, and isolated minor river flooding. As the remnants of Delta move farther inland, 1 to 3 inches of rain, with locally higher amounts, are expected in the Tennessee Valley and Mid Atlantic this weekend. There is a potential for 3 to 6 inches in the Southern Appalachians, which could lead to isolated flash, urban, and small stream flooding. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible early this morning over southern portions of Louisiana and Mississippi, and over Alabama, central and eastern Mississippi, southern Tennessee and the western Florida Panhandle on Saturday. SURF: Swells from Delta are still affecting portions of the northern and western Gulf coast. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi/Zelinsky
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