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Hurricane Delta Forecast Discussion Number 22
2020-10-10 04:41:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Fri Oct 09 2020 000 WTNT41 KNHC 100241 TCDAT1 Hurricane Delta Discussion Number 22 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL262020 1000 PM CDT Fri Oct 09 2020 Delta made landfall around 23Z on the southwest Louisiana coast, and has been weakening over land. Assuming a fairly rapid weakening since landfall, the estimated current intensity is around 65 kt. Delta will continue weakening, and should become a tropical storm overnight. The system is likely to be reduced to a tropical depression on Saturday. This is in reasonable agreement with the NOAA corrected consensus prediction, HCCA. Center position estimates from surface observations and satellite imagery indicate that the motion is north-northeastward, or 025/13 kt. Over the next couple of days, Delta should turn northeastward on the east side of a mid-level trough and move into the Tennessee Valley region. The official forecast shows dissipation in 72 hours, but the global models suggest that this could occur a little sooner. Nonetheless, the vorticity and moisture remnants of Delta are likely to move over the northeastern United States early next week. Key Messages: 1. Life-threatening storm surge is still occurring along portions of the Louisiana coast, and a Storm Surge Warning is in effect from Cameron, Louisiana, eastward to the Mouth of the Pearl River. Water levels will slowly subside on Saturday as Delta moves farther inland. 2. Tropical-storm-force winds and gusts to hurricane force will continue to spread inland overnight across portions of Louisiana near the path of Deltas center. 3. Heavy rainfall will lead to significant flash flooding and minor to major river flooding in parts of Louisiana through Saturday. Additional flooding is expected across portions of the central Gulf Coast into the Lower Mississippi Valley. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/0300Z 30.6N 92.6W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND 12H 10/1200Z 32.2N 91.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 24H 11/0000Z 33.7N 89.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 36H 11/1200Z 35.1N 87.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 48H 12/0000Z 37.0N 85.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 12/1200Z 39.5N 81.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 13/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Hurricane Delta Public Advisory Number 22
2020-10-10 04:40:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Fri Oct 09 2020 000 WTNT31 KNHC 100240 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Hurricane Delta Advisory Number 22 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL262020 1000 PM CDT Fri Oct 09 2020 ...DELTA CONTINUES MOVING INLAND OVER SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA... ...HURRICANE CONDITIONS AND A LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE STILL OCCURRING WITHIN THE WARNING AREA... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...30.6N 92.6W ABOUT 70 MI...110 KM NE OF CAMERON LOUISIANA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...972 MB...28.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Storm Surge Warning has been discontinued from Sabine Pass, Texas to Cameron, Louisiana, including Calcasieu Lake. The Tropical Storm Warning west of High Island Texas has been discontinued. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Cameron to the Mouth of the Pearl River, Louisiana including Vermilion Bay and Lake Borgne A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * High Island Texas to Morgan City Louisiana A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * East of Morgan City Louisiana to the mouth of the Pearl River, including New Orleans * Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Delta was located near latitude 30.6 North, longitude 92.6 West. Delta is moving toward the north-northeast near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue through Saturday morning. A motion toward the northeast is then expected through Sunday night. On the forecast track, the center of Delta should move across central and northeastern Louisiana tonight and Saturday morning. After that time, the system is forecast to move across northern Mississippi and into the Tennessee Valley. Maximum sustained winds have decreased near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Continued weakening is forecast, and Delta should become a tropical storm, and then a tropical depression, on Saturday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 972 mb (28.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Delta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge, LA to Morgan City, LA including Vermilion Bay...6-10 ft Cameron, LA to Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge, LA...4-6 ft Morgan City, LA to Port Fourchon, LA...3-5 ft Port Fourchon, LA to the Mouth of the Pearl River...2-4 ft Lake Borgne...2-4 ft Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas...1-3 ft Mouth of the Pearl River to the AL/FL border including Mobile Bay...1-3 ft Port O'Connor, TX to Cameron, LA including Galveston Bay, Sabine Lake, and Calcasieu Lake...1-3 ft Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Hurricane conditions are occurring within the hurricane warning area, and should continue during the next few hours. Tropical storm conditions will continue within portions of the tropical storm warning areas through early Saturday. RAINFALL: Through Saturday, Delta is expected to produce 5 to 10 inches of rain, with isolated maximum totals of 15 inches, from southwest into central Louisiana. These rainfall amounts will lead to significant flash, urban, small stream flooding, along with minor to major river flooding. For extreme eastern Texas into northern Louisiana, southern Arkansas, and western Mississippi, Delta is expected to produce 3 to 6 inches of rain, with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches. These rainfall amounts will lead to flash, urban, small stream, and isolated minor river flooding. As the remnants of Delta move farther inland, 1 to 3 inches of rain, with locally higher amounts, are expected in the Tennessee Valley and Mid Atlantic this weekend. There is a potential for 3 to 6 inches in the Southern Appalachians, which could lead to isolated flash, urban, and small stream flooding. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible tonight over southern portions of Louisiana and Mississippi, and over Alabama, central and eastern Mississippi, southern Tennessee and the western Florida Panhandle on Saturday. SURF: Swells from Delta are affecting portions of the northern and western Gulf coast. These swells are likely to cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Hurricane Delta Wind Speed Probabilities Number 22
2020-10-10 04:40:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT OCT 10 2020 000 FONT11 KNHC 100240 PWSAT1 HURRICANE DELTA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL262020 0300 UTC SAT OCT 10 2020 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DELTA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 92.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BIRMINGHAM AL 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) STENNIS MS 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) JACKSON MS 34 10 8(18) 1(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 6 X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) BATON ROUGE LA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) MORGAN CITY LA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) ALEXANDRIA LA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) ALEXANDRIA LA 50 29 X(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) LAFAYETTE LA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) LAFAYETTE LA 50 8 X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) NEW IBERIA LA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) FORT POLK LA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) LAKE CHARLES 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) LAKE CHARLES 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) LAKE CHARLES 64 5 X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) CAMERON LA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) CAMERON LA 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) JASPER TX 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) KOUNTZE TX 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) PORT ARTHUR TX 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
Tropical Depression Norbert Forecast Discussion Number 18
2020-10-10 04:37:50| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 PM MDT Fri Oct 09 2020 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 100237 TCDEP4 Tropical Depression Norbert Discussion Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192020 900 PM MDT Fri Oct 09 2020 Small, sporadic bursts of deep convection continue to pulse near the center of Norbert, mainly in the western semicircle due to some easterly vertical wind shear. Earlier satellite-derived wind data suggested that Norbert's low-level circulation is becoming elongated, and its structure will be reassessed overnight when new scatterometer data becomes available. The initial intensity remains 25 kt with this advisory. The global models suggest Norbert will open up into a trough and merge with the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) within the next 48-72 h. However, it could degenerate into a remnant low even sooner if convection wanes. The official forecast hangs on to pesky Norbert for a couple more days before showing dissipation by 60 h. Norbert is moving northwestward at 4 kt. A weak mid-level ridge to the northeast of the cyclone will continue steering Norbert slowly to the northwest for the next couple of days. The NHC track forecast is very similar to the previous one and remains near the track model consensus guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/0300Z 14.0N 106.8W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 10/1200Z 14.4N 107.0W 25 KT 30 MPH 24H 11/0000Z 14.9N 107.3W 25 KT 30 MPH 36H 11/1200Z 15.1N 107.4W 25 KT 30 MPH 48H 12/0000Z 15.3N 107.4W 25 KT 30 MPH 60H 12/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Reinhart/Berg
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Tropical Depression Norbert Wind Speed Probabilities Number 18
2020-10-10 04:36:51| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT OCT 10 2020 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 100236 PWSEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NORBERT WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192020 0300 UTC SAT OCT 10 2020 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NORBERT WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 106.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 105W 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER REINHART/BERG
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