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Tropical Depression Norbert Forecast Advisory Number 12
2020-10-08 16:41:48| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC THU OCT 08 2020 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 081441 TCMEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NORBERT FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192020 1500 UTC THU OCT 08 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 106.2W AT 08/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT STATIONARY ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 106.2W AT 08/1500Z AT 08/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 106.2W FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 13.0N 106.3W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 13.0N 106.7W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 13.4N 107.2W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 14.1N 107.8W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 14.9N 108.1W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 15.5N 108.4W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 12/1200Z 15.8N 109.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 13/1200Z 15.9N 110.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.2N 106.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/2100Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO
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Hurricane Delta Public Advisory Number 15A
2020-10-08 13:55:09| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 700 AM CDT Thu Oct 08 2020 000 WTNT31 KNHC 081155 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Hurricane Delta Intermediate Advisory Number 15A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL262020 700 AM CDT Thu Oct 08 2020 ...NOAA AND AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING DELTA... ...HURRICANE CONDITIONS AND LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE EXPECTED TO BEGIN ALONG PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST ON FRIDAY... SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.7N 92.3W ABOUT 425 MI...685 KM S OF CAMERON LOUISIANA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB...28.64 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Storm Surge Watch has been discontinued from east of Ocean Springs, Mississippi, to the Mississippi/Alabama border. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Sabine Pass to Ocean Springs, Mississippi including Calcasieu Lake, Vermilion Bay, Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Lake Borgne A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * High Island, TX to Sabine Pass A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * East of Sabine Pass to Morgan City, Louisiana A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * San Luis Pass, Texas to Sabine Pass * East of Morgan City, Louisiana to the mouth of the Pearl River, including New Orleans * Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * East of the mouth of the Pearl River to Bay St. Louis Mississippi A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Delta was located by NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft near latitude 23.7 North, longitude 92.3 West. Delta is moving toward the northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this motion with a reduction in forward speed is expected today. A turn to the north is forecast to occur by late tonight, followed by a north- northeastward motion by Friday night. On the forecast track, the center of Delta will move over the central Gulf of Mexico today, and move inland within the hurricane warning area Friday afternoon or Friday night. Reports from the Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast, and Delta is expected to become a major hurricane again by tonight. Some weakening is forecast when Delta approaches the northern Gulf coast on Friday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km). The minimum central pressure just reported by the Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 970 mb (28.64 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Delta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Pecan Island, LA to Port Fourchon, LA including Vermilion Bay... 7-11 ft Cameron, LA to Pecan Island, LA...4-7 ft Port Fourchon, LA to the Mouth of the Mississippi River4-6 ft Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs, MS...2-4 ft Lake Borgne, Lake Pontchartrain, and Lake Maurepas...2-4 ft High Island, TX to Cameron, LA including Calcasieu Lake...2-4 ft Ocean Springs, MS to the AL/FL border including Mobile Bay...1-3 ft Sabine Lake...1-3 ft Port O'Connor, TX to High Island, TX including Galveston Bay... 1-3 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning area by Friday afternoon or evening, with tropical storm conditions expected within this area by early Friday. Tropical storm conditions are expected within the tropical storm warning areas on Friday. RAINFALL: Friday through Saturday, Delta is expected to produce 5 to 10 inches of rain, with isolated maximum totals of 15 inches, for southwest into south central Louisiana. These rainfall amounts will lead to significant flash, urban, small stream flooding, along with minor to isolated moderate river flooding. For extreme east Texas into northern Louisiana, southern Arkansas and western Mississippi, Delta is expected to produce 3 to 6 inches of rain, with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches. These rainfall amounts will lead to flash, urban, small stream and isolated minor river flooding. As Delta moves farther inland, 1 to 3 inches of rain, with locally higher amounts, are expected in the Ohio Valley and Mid Atlantic this weekend. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible late tonight through Friday over southern parts of Louisiana and Mississippi SURF: Swells from Delta will begin to affect portions of the northern and western Gulf coast later today. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Depression Norbert Forecast Discussion Number 11
2020-10-08 10:44:08| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Thu Oct 08 2020 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 080843 TCDEP4 Tropical Depression Norbert Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192020 300 AM MDT Thu Oct 08 2020 Norbert was very close to becoming a remnant low overnight. A recent burst of deep convection to the southeast of the partially exposed low-level center was sufficient to keep Norbert as a tropical depression for this advisory. Water vapor imagery indicates the depression is still battling dry mid-level air on the northern periphery of the circulation. The initial intensity has been lowered to 25 kt based on a 04 UTC ASCAT-B overpass that showed max winds of 25 kt in the southwest quadrant of Norbert. Norbert is presently drifting east-southeastward under weak steering currents, and the cyclone may continue meandering erratically for the next 6-12 h. Then, Norbert is forecast to move slowly west-southwestward or westward through 48 h. Thereafter, a mid-level ridge is expected to build to the north and northeast of Norbert, which should steer the system northwestward at a slightly faster speed. The NHC forecast track is shifted slightly to the right of the previous one based on the guidance consensus aids including TVCE and HCCA. Although drier mid-level air continues to impinge on the northern side of Norbert's circulation, the depression remains in an otherwise favorable environment of high oceanic heat content and light vertical wind shear. If Norbert can survive the slight increase in deep-layer shear depicted by the SHIPS guidance during the next 24 h, improving environmental conditions thereafter could allow Norbert to at least remain a depression for several days. Alternatively, moderate shear and additional dry air intrusions could cause Norbert to degenerate into a remnant low at almost any time. The NHC intensity forecast assumes the first scenario and keeps Norbert as a 25-30 kt depression for the next several days. By 96-120 h, GFS simulated satellite imagery suggests the cyclone will be devoid of convection as it moves into a drier mid-level environment. Thus, the official forecast depicts a transition to remnant low status by day 4. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/0900Z 13.2N 106.3W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 08/1800Z 13.0N 106.2W 25 KT 30 MPH 24H 09/0600Z 13.0N 106.5W 25 KT 30 MPH 36H 09/1800Z 13.2N 107.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 10/0600Z 13.5N 107.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 10/1800Z 14.4N 108.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 11/0600Z 15.3N 108.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 12/0600Z 16.0N 109.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 13/0600Z 16.5N 110.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Reinhart/Zelinsky
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Tropical Depression Norbert Wind Speed Probabilities Number 11
2020-10-08 10:43:07| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC THU OCT 08 2020 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 080842 PWSEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NORBERT WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192020 0900 UTC THU OCT 08 2020 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NORBERT WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 106.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 105W 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) 15N 110W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 7( 9) 4(13) 1(14) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) $$ FORECASTER REINHART/ZELINSKY
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Tropical Depression Norbert Public Advisory Number 11
2020-10-08 10:42:42| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Thu Oct 08 2020 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 080842 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Norbert Advisory Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192020 300 AM MDT Thu Oct 08 2020 ...MODEST INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL DEPRESSION NORBERT... SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.2N 106.3W ABOUT 420 MI...680 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ESE OR 110 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Norbert was located near latitude 13.2 North, longitude 106.3 West. The depression is moving toward the east-southeast near 3 mph (6 km/h). Little movement is expected today, with a west-southwestward motion forecast to begin tonight into Friday. A slightly faster westward or west-northwestward motion is expected by this weekend. Satellite-derived wind data indicate that maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next few days. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Reinhart/Zelinsky
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