je.st
news
Tag: number
Tropical Depression Norbert Forecast Discussion Number 15
2020-10-09 10:38:30| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Fri Oct 09 2020 089 WTPZ44 KNHC 090838 TCDEP4 Tropical Depression Norbert Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192020 300 AM MDT Fri Oct 09 2020 Norbert is clearly struggling to remain a tropical depression. The low-level center is exposed in recent satellite imagery, likely due to a combination of east-southeasterly vertical wind shear and dry mid-level air in the surrounding environment. The nearest deep convection is located roughly 50 miles south of the center, and it is very poorly organized. Unfortunately, overnight ASCAT passes missed the center of Norbert, but a partial overpass of the eastern semicircle revealed 20 kt winds. A blend of the UW-CIMSS objective estimate and the TAFB subjective Dvorak estimate supports an intensity of 25 kt, which may be generous given the lack of sustained convection near the cyclone's center. Vertical wind shear is taking its toll on Norbert, and the latest SHIPS guidance suggests the deep-layer shear will increase over the next 24-48 h. Thus, Norbert is unlikely to survive the five-day forecast period. If new convection doesn't develop soon, it could degenerate into a remnant low as early as today. The latest NHC forecast explicitly calls for dissipation by 72 h. Norbert is starting to drift northwestward, and this general motion should continue over the next couple of days as a weak mid-level ridge builds to the northeast of the depression. The NHC track forecast closely follows the consensus aids and remains very close to the previous forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/0900Z 13.2N 106.0W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 09/1800Z 13.4N 106.3W 25 KT 30 MPH 24H 10/0600Z 13.9N 106.9W 25 KT 30 MPH 36H 10/1800Z 14.4N 107.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 11/0600Z 14.7N 107.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 11/1800Z 14.9N 107.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 12/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Reinhart/Zelinsky
Tags: number
discussion
tropical
depression
Tropical Depression Norbert Wind Speed Probabilities Number 15
2020-10-09 10:38:30| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC FRI OCT 09 2020 040 FOPZ14 KNHC 090838 PWSEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NORBERT WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192020 0900 UTC FRI OCT 09 2020 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NORBERT WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 106.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 105W 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 110W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER REINHART/ZELINSKY
Tags: number
speed
wind
tropical
Tropical Depression Norbert Public Advisory Number 15
2020-10-09 10:38:04| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Fri Oct 09 2020 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 090837 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Norbert Advisory Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192020 300 AM MDT Fri Oct 09 2020 ...WEAKLY NORBERT STRUGGLING WITH WIND SHEAR... SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.2N 106.0W ABOUT 415 MI...670 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 1 MPH...2 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Norbert was located near latitude 13.2 North, longitude 106.0 West. The depression is moving toward the northwest near 1 mph (2 km/h), and this general motion with a slight increase in forward speed is expected over the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next couple of days. Norbert is expected to become a remnant low by Saturday and dissipate by Monday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Reinhart/Zelinsky
Tags: number
public
advisory
tropical
Tropical Depression Norbert Forecast Advisory Number 15
2020-10-09 10:37:33| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC FRI OCT 09 2020 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 090837 TCMEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NORBERT FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192020 0900 UTC FRI OCT 09 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 106.0W AT 09/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 1 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 106.0W AT 09/0900Z AT 09/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.1N 105.9W FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 13.4N 106.3W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 13.9N 106.9W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 14.4N 107.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 14.7N 107.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 14.9N 107.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.2N 106.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/1500Z $$ FORECASTER REINHART/ZELINSKY
Tags: number
advisory
tropical
depression
Hurricane Delta Public Advisory Number 18A
2020-10-09 07:52:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 100 AM CDT Fri Oct 09 2020 000 WTNT31 KNHC 090552 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Hurricane Delta Intermediate Advisory Number 18A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL262020 100 AM CDT Fri Oct 09 2020 ...MAJOR HURRICANE DELTA HEADED TOWARD SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA... ...EXPECTED TO BRING HURRICANE CONDITIONS AND A LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE TO PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...26.2N 93.6W ABOUT 250 MI...400 KM S OF CAMERON LOUISIANA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...953 MB...28.14 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * High Island Texas to Ocean Springs Mississippi including Calcasieu Lake, Vermilion Bay, Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Lake Borgne A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * High Island Texas to Morgan City Louisiana A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * West of High Island to Sargent Texas * East of Morgan City Louisiana to the mouth of the Pearl River, including New Orleans * Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * East of the mouth of the Pearl River to Bay St. Louis Mississippi A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm- force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Delta was located near latitude 26.2 North, longitude 93.6 West. Delta is moving toward the north-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A turn toward the north is forecast during the next few hours, followed by a north-northeastward motion by tonight. On the forecast track, the center of Delta will move over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico on today, and then move inland within the hurricane warning area this evening. Maximum sustained winds are near 120 mph (195 km/h) with higher gusts. Delta is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some slight strengthening is possible overnight. Slow weakening is expected to begin as Delta approaches the northern Gulf coast later today, with rapid weakening expected after the center moves inland. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km). NOAA buoy 42002 near Delta's eastern eyewall recently reported a sustained wind of 78 mph (126 km/h) and a wind gust to 99 mph (159 km/h). The buoy also reported a significant wave height of about 35 feet (almost 11 meters). The minimum central pressure based on data by from the NOAA and Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 953 mb (28.14 inches). NOAA buoy 42002 very near the center of Delta also recently reported a minimum pressure of 953 mb (28.14 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Delta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge, LA to Morgan City, LA including Vermilion Bay...7-11 ft Holly Beach, LA to Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge, LA...5-8 ft Sabine Pass to Holly Beach, LA...4-7 ft Morgan City, LA to Port Fourchon, LA...4-7 ft Port Fourchon, LA to the Mouth of the Mississippi River...3-5 ft Calcasieu Lake...3-5 ft High Island, TX to Sabine Pass...2-4 ft Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs, MS...2-4 ft Lake Borgne, Lake Pontchartrain, and Lake Maurepas...2-4 ft Ocean Springs, MS to the AL/FL border including Mobile Bay...1-3 ft Sabine Lake...1-3 ft Port O'Connor, TX to High Island, TX including Galveston Bay... 1-3 ft It is important to note that small changes in the track, structure, or intensity of Delta could have large impacts on where the highest storm surge occurs. Users are urged to stay tuned for possible changes and updates. The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning area by this afternoon, with tropical storm conditions expected within this area later this morning. Tropical storm conditions are expected within the tropical storm warning areas later today, and are possible within the tropical storm watch area by tonight. RAINFALL: Friday through Saturday, Delta is expected to produce 5 to 10 inches of rain, with isolated maximum totals of 15 inches, from southwest into south-central Louisiana. These rainfall amounts will lead to significant flash, urban, small stream flooding, along with minor to major river flooding. For extreme east Texas into northern Louisiana, southern Arkansas and western Mississippi, Delta is expected to produce 3 to 6 inches of rain, with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches. These rainfall amounts will lead to flash, urban, small stream and isolated minor river flooding. As Delta moves farther inland, 1 to 3 inches of rain, with locally higher amounts, are expected in the Tennessee Valley and Mid- Atlantic this weekend. TORNADOES: There is a risk of a few tornadoes today over southern portions of Louisiana and Mississippi. SURF: Swells from Delta are affecting portions of the northern and western Gulf coast. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
Tags: number
public
delta
advisory
Sites : [715] [716] [717] [718] [719] [720] [721] [722] [723] [724] [725] [726] [727] [728] [729] [730] [731] [732] [733] [734] next »