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Tropical Storm Norbert Forecast Discussion Number 7
2020-10-07 10:48:12| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Wed Oct 07 2020 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 070848 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Norbert Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192020 300 AM MDT Wed Oct 07 2020 Norbert has weakened as entrainment of dry air has disrupted the compact system. The center was partially exposed overnight, but recent infrared imagery shows a new burst of deep convection near the center. Microwave imagery and ASCAT scatterometer wind data indicated the center had drifted southwest from its previous position, as the storm is beginning to meander within the weak steering flow. The initial intensity has been lowered to 35 kt based on the recent ASCAT-A overpass that showed a peak wind of 33 kt, as well as a T2.5 Dvorak estimate from TAFB. The intensity forecast for Norbert remains tricky given its small circulation and the presence of dry air in the surrounding environment. Sea-surface temperatures are more than sufficient for at least modest strengthening, but the question will be whether Norbert can survive the increased southeasterly shear that the SHIPS guidance calls for during the next 24-48 h. If so, Norbert may remain a tropical storm through the next 5 days. Alternatively, the shear and additional bouts of dry air entrainment could weaken the system to a depression or even a remnant low late in the forecast period. While small intensity changes due to diurnal fluctuations in convection are certainly possible, the official NHC forecast keeps Norbert's intensity forecast at 35 kt in consideration of the mixed signals noted in the latest intensity guidance. As previously mentioned, the center of Norbert has drifted to the southwest overnight. The storm is expected to remain nearly stationary over the next couple of days as distant Hurricane Delta over the northwestern Caribbean Sea has weakened the ridge that had been steering Norbert. Therefore, the forecast track through 48 h is more uncertain than usual given the potential for erratic motion as indicated by the diverging model solutions. By Friday, Norbert should begin moving slowly westward or west-northwestward as the ridge gradually builds to the north. The NHC track forecast remains fairly close to the various consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/0900Z 14.0N 107.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 07/1800Z 13.9N 107.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 08/0600Z 13.9N 107.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 08/1800Z 14.0N 107.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 09/0600Z 14.0N 108.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 09/1800Z 14.1N 108.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 10/0600Z 14.6N 109.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 11/0600Z 15.5N 111.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 12/0600Z 16.5N 112.5W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ Forecaster Reinhart/Stewart
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Tropical Storm Norbert Public Advisory Number 7
2020-10-07 10:46:09| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Wed Oct 07 2020 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 070846 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Norbert Advisory Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192020 300 AM MDT Wed Oct 07 2020 ...NORBERT WEAKENS OVERNIGHT AS DRY AIR IMPACTS THE COMPACT SYSTEM... SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.0N 107.1W ABOUT 390 MI...630 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...SW OR 230 DEGREES AT 1 MPH...2 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Norbert was located near latitude 14.0 North, longitude 107.1 West. Norbert is drifting toward the southwest near 1 mph (2 km/h). The storm is forecast to meander or remain nearly stationary over the next couple of days. Satellite-derived wind data indicate that maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some fluctuations in strength will be possible during the next few days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Reinhart/Stewart
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Tropical Storm Norbert Wind Speed Probabilities Number 7
2020-10-07 10:46:09| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC WED OCT 07 2020 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 070846 PWSEP4 TROPICAL STORM NORBERT WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192020 0900 UTC WED OCT 07 2020 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NORBERT WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 105W 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CLIPPERTON IS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 15N 110W 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 12(16) 6(22) 2(24) 15N 110W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 15N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) $$ FORECASTER REINHART/STEWART
Tropical Storm Norbert Forecast Advisory Number 7
2020-10-07 10:45:09| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC WED OCT 07 2020 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 070845 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM NORBERT FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192020 0900 UTC WED OCT 07 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 107.1W AT 07/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST OR 230 DEGREES AT 1 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 0SE 20SW 20NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 107.1W AT 07/0900Z AT 07/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 107.1W FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 13.9N 107.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 10NE 10SE 20SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 13.9N 107.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 14.0N 107.6W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 14.0N 108.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 14.1N 108.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 14.6N 109.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 10NE 10SE 0SW 30NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 11/0600Z 15.5N 111.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 12/0600Z 16.5N 112.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.0N 107.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/1500Z $$ FORECASTER REINHART/STEWART
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Hurricane Delta Public Advisory Number 10A
2020-10-07 07:52:33| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 100 AM CDT Wed Oct 07 2020 000 WTNT31 KNHC 070552 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Hurricane Delta Intermediate Advisory Number 10A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL262020 100 AM CDT Wed Oct 07 2020 ...HURRICANE DELTA AIMING FOR THE NORTHEAST YUCATAN COAST WITH A LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND STRONG WINDS... SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.0N 85.7W ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM ESE OF COZUMEL MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...972 MB...28.70 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Tulum to Dzilam Mexico * Cozumel A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Cuba province of Pinar del Rio * Isle of Youth * Punta Herrero to Tulum Mexico * Dzilam to Progreso Mexico A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. Interests along the northern Gulf of Mexico coast should monitor the progress of Delta. Hurricane and Storm Surge Watches will likely be issued for a portion of this area later today. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Delta was located by a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft near latitude 20.0 North, longitude 85.7 West. Delta is moving toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h). A west-northwestward to northwestward motion is expected over the next day or so. A slower northwestward to north-northwestward motion is forecast to begin on Thursday, and a northward motion is expected Thursday night and Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Delta will move over the northeastern portion of the Yucatan Peninsula this morning. Delta is forecast to move over the southern Gulf of Mexico this afternoon, be over the southern or central Gulf of Mexico through Thursday, and approach the northern Gulf coast on Friday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 120 mph (195 km/h) with higher gusts. Delta is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Little change in strength is expected before the center reaches the coast of the Yucatan peninsula. Although some weakening is likely when Delta moves over the Yucatan peninsula, re-strengthening is forecast when the hurricane moves over the southern Gulf of Mexico Wednesday night and Thursday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km). NOAA buoy 42056 recently measured a sustained wind of 82 mph (132 km/h) and a gust to 94 mph (151 km/h), and a minimum central pressure of 976 mb (28.82 inches). The estimated minimum central pressure based on NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft data is 972 mb (28.70 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Delta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml. STORM SURGE: A life-threatening storm surge will raise water levels in areas of onshore winds by as much as 8 to 12 ft above normal tide levels along the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula from Cabo Catoche to Progresso, and 6 to 8 ft above normal tide levels along the eastern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula from Tulum to Cabo Catoche. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. WIND: In the Yucatan Peninsula, extremely dangerous hurricane conditions are expected in portions of the warning area during the next several hours, with tropical storm conditions beginning in the next few hours. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning area overnight. In Cuba, tropical storm conditions are expected overnight in the warning area. RAINFALL: Delta is expected to produce 4 to 6 inches of rain, with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches, across portions of the northern Yucatan Peninsula through midweek. This rainfall may result in areas of significant flash flooding. Over the next few days, Delta is expected to produce 2 to 4 inches of rain, with isolated higher amounts, across portions of the Cayman Islands and western Cuba. This rainfall may result in areas of flash flooding and mudslides. Later this week, Delta is expected to produce 4 to 8 inches of rain, with isolated maximum totals of 12 inches, over portions of the central Gulf Coast. These rainfall amounts may lead to flash, urban and minor river flooding. Heavy rainfall will eventually spread into the Tennessee Valley, and interior southeastern United States as well. SURF: Swells generated by Delta will affect land areas around the northwestern Caribbean Sea for the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Blake
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