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Hurricane Delta Wind Speed Probabilities Number 17
2020-10-08 22:55:19| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC THU OCT 08 2020 000 FONT11 KNHC 082055 PWSAT1 HURRICANE DELTA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL262020 2100 UTC THU OCT 08 2020 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DELTA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 93.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 100 KTS...115 MPH...185 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT DESTIN EXEC AP 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BIRMINGHAM AL 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) MONTGOMERY AL 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) WHITING FLD FL 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MOBILE AL 34 X 2( 2) 11(13) 2(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) GULFPORT MS 34 X 4( 4) 17(21) 3(24) 1(25) X(25) X(25) STENNIS MS 34 X 6( 6) 27(33) 3(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) BURAS LA 34 1 6( 7) 22(29) 2(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) GFMX 280N 890W 34 3 6( 9) 5(14) 1(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) JACKSON MS 34 X 3( 3) 29(32) 17(49) 1(50) X(50) X(50) JACKSON MS 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) JACKSON MS 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 1 9(10) 41(51) 2(53) X(53) X(53) X(53) NEW ORLEANS LA 50 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) NEW ORLEANS LA 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) GFMX 280N 910W 34 11 47(58) 3(61) X(61) X(61) X(61) X(61) GFMX 280N 910W 50 X 6( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) GFMX 280N 910W 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) BATON ROUGE LA 34 1 18(19) 57(76) 2(78) X(78) X(78) X(78) BATON ROUGE LA 50 X 1( 1) 22(23) 2(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) BATON ROUGE LA 64 X X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) MORGAN CITY LA 34 3 31(34) 41(75) 1(76) X(76) X(76) X(76) MORGAN CITY LA 50 X 3( 3) 17(20) 1(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) MORGAN CITY LA 64 X X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ALEXANDRIA LA 34 1 12(13) 70(83) 4(87) X(87) X(87) X(87) ALEXANDRIA LA 50 X 1( 1) 43(44) 6(50) X(50) X(50) X(50) ALEXANDRIA LA 64 X X( X) 19(19) 2(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) LAFAYETTE LA 34 2 42(44) 49(93) 1(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) LAFAYETTE LA 50 X 4( 4) 52(56) 2(58) X(58) X(58) X(58) LAFAYETTE LA 64 X 1( 1) 28(29) 2(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) NEW IBERIA LA 34 3 46(49) 42(91) 1(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) NEW IBERIA LA 50 X 4( 4) 47(51) 2(53) X(53) X(53) X(53) NEW IBERIA LA 64 X 1( 1) 22(23) 1(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) GFMX 280N 930W 34 75 25(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) GFMX 280N 930W 50 4 82(86) 1(87) X(87) X(87) X(87) X(87) GFMX 280N 930W 64 1 58(59) 3(62) X(62) X(62) X(62) X(62) SHREVEPORT LA 34 X 4( 4) 23(27) 4(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) SHREVEPORT LA 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) FORT POLK LA 34 1 20(21) 61(82) 2(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) FORT POLK LA 50 X 2( 2) 38(40) 3(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) FORT POLK LA 64 X X( X) 17(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) LAKE CHARLES 34 2 58(60) 34(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) LAKE CHARLES 50 X 11(11) 61(72) 2(74) X(74) X(74) X(74) LAKE CHARLES 64 X 3( 3) 38(41) 1(42) X(42) X(42) X(42) CAMERON LA 34 5 83(88) 10(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) CAMERON LA 50 X 40(40) 43(83) 1(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) CAMERON LA 64 X 15(15) 44(59) X(59) X(59) X(59) X(59) JASPER TX 34 2 19(21) 46(67) 2(69) X(69) X(69) X(69) JASPER TX 50 X 2( 2) 17(19) 1(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) JASPER TX 64 X X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) KOUNTZE TX 34 2 36(38) 32(70) 1(71) X(71) X(71) X(71) KOUNTZE TX 50 X 4( 4) 18(22) 1(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) KOUNTZE TX 64 X 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) PORT ARTHUR TX 34 3 61(64) 21(85) X(85) X(85) X(85) X(85) PORT ARTHUR TX 50 X 13(13) 32(45) 1(46) X(46) X(46) X(46) PORT ARTHUR TX 64 X 2( 2) 16(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) GALVESTON TX 34 7 69(76) 3(79) X(79) X(79) X(79) X(79) GALVESTON TX 50 X 24(24) 5(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) GALVESTON TX 64 X 6( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) HOUSTON TX 34 3 19(22) 12(34) 1(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) HOUSTON TX 50 X 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) AUSTIN TX 34 1 3( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) SAN ANTONIO TX 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) FREEPORT TX 34 4 35(39) 3(42) 1(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) FREEPORT TX 50 1 4( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) GFMX 280N 950W 34 56 32(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) GFMX 280N 950W 50 4 29(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) GFMX 280N 950W 64 1 8( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) HIGH ISLAND TX 34 4 68(72) 7(79) 1(80) X(80) X(80) X(80) HIGH ISLAND TX 50 X 18(18) 12(30) 1(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) HIGH ISLAND TX 64 X 3( 3) 5( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) MATAGORDA TX 34 6 29(35) 2(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) MATAGORDA TX 50 1 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) PORT O CONNOR 34 5 14(19) 1(20) 1(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) PORT O CONNOR 50 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ROCKPORT TX 34 3 3( 6) 1( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) CORPUS CHRISTI 34 2 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) GFMX 270N 960W 34 39 7(46) 1(47) X(47) X(47) X(47) X(47) GFMX 270N 960W 50 3 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) MCALLEN TX 34 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) HARLINGEN TX 34 2 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) BROWNSVILLE TX 34 3 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GFMX 250N 960W 34 10 3(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) PENSACOLA NAS 34 X X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) KEESLER AB 34 X 7( 7) 13(20) 3(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
Hurricane Delta Public Advisory Number 17
2020-10-08 22:55:16| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Thu Oct 08 2020 000 WTNT31 KNHC 082055 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Hurricane Delta Advisory Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL262020 400 PM CDT Thu Oct 08 2020 ...DELTA REGAINS MAJOR HURRICANE STRENGTH OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO... ...HURRICANE CONDITIONS AND LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE EXPECTED TO BEGIN ALONG PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST ON FRIDAY... SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.8N 93.4W ABOUT 345 MI...555 KM S OF CAMERON LOUISIANA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...959 MB...28.32 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Tropical Storm Warning is now in effect for the Texas coast west of San Luis Pass to Sargent. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * High Island Texas to Ocean Springs Mississippi including Calcasieu Lake, Vermilion Bay, Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Lake Borgne A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * High Island Texas to Morgan City Louisiana A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * West of High Island to Sargent Texas * East of Morgan City Louisiana to the mouth of the Pearl River, including New Orleans * Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * East of the mouth of the Pearl River to Bay St. Louis Mississippi A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm- force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Delta was located near latitude 24.8 North, longitude 93.4 West. Delta is moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this motion with a reduction in forward speed is expected this evening. A turn toward the north is forecast to occur late tonight, followed by a north-northeastward motion Friday and Friday night. On the forecast track, the center of Delta will move over the western Gulf of Mexico this evening, over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico on Friday, and then move inland within the hurricane warning area Friday afternoon or Friday night. Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher gusts. Delta is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Additional strengthening is possible tonight. Some weakening is possible as Delta approaches the northern Gulf coast on Friday, with rapid weakening expected after the center moves inland. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km). The minimum central pressure just reported by the Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 959 mb (28.32 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Delta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge, LA to Morgan City, LA including Vermilion Bay...7-11 ft Holly Beach, LA to Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge, LA...5-8 ft Sabine Pass to Holly Beach, LA...4-7 ft Morgan City, LA to Port Fourchon, LA...4-7 ft Port Fourchon, LA to the Mouth of the Mississippi River...3-5 ft Calcasieu Lake...3-5 ft High Island, TX to Sabine Pass...2-4 ft Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs, MS...2-4 ft Lake Borgne, Lake Pontchartrain, and Lake Maurepas...2-4 ft Ocean Springs, MS to the AL/FL border including Mobile Bay...1-3 ft Sabine Lake...1-3 ft Port O'Connor, TX to High Island, TX including Galveston Bay... 1-3 ft It is important to note that small changes in the track, structure, or intensity of Delta could have large impacts on where the highest storm surge occurs. Users are urged to stay tuned for possible changes and updates. The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning area by Friday afternoon or evening, with tropical storm conditions expected within this area by early Friday. Tropical storm conditions are expected within the tropical storm warning areas on Friday, and are possible in the tropical storm watch area Friday night. RAINFALL: Friday through Saturday, Delta is expected to produce 5 to 10 inches of rain, with isolated maximum totals of 15 inches, from southwest into south-central Louisiana. These rainfall amounts will lead to significant flash, urban, small stream flooding, along with minor to major river flooding. For extreme east Texas into northern Louisiana, southern Arkansas and western Mississippi, Delta is expected to produce 3 to 6 inches of rain, with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches. These rainfall amounts will lead to flash, urban, small stream and isolated minor river flooding. As Delta moves farther inland, 1 to 3 inches of rain, with locally higher amounts, are expected in the Tennessee Valley and Mid Atlantic this weekend. TORNADOES: There is a risk of a few tornadoes beginning late tonight and continuing through Friday over southern portions of Louisiana and Mississippi. SURF: Swells from Delta will begin to affect portions of the northern and western Gulf coast during the next several hours. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Beven
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Hurricane Delta Forecast Advisory Number 17
2020-10-08 22:54:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC THU OCT 08 2020 000 WTNT21 KNHC 082054 TCMAT1 HURRICANE DELTA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL262020 2100 UTC THU OCT 08 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE TEXAS COAST WEST OF SAN LUIS PASS TO SARGENT. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * HIGH ISLAND TEXAS TO OCEAN SPRINGS MISSISSIPPI INCLUDING CALCASIEU LAKE...VERMILION BAY...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...LAKE MAUREPAS...AND LAKE BORGNE A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * HIGH ISLAND TEXAS TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * WEST OF HIGH ISLAND TO SARGENT TEXAS * EAST OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER...INCLUDING NEW ORLEANS * LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * EAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER TO BAY ST. LOUIS MISSISSIPPI A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM- FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.8N 93.4W AT 08/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 959 MB EYE DIAMETER 30 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT.......140NE 130SE 80SW 110NW. 12 FT SEAS..270NE 120SE 120SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.8N 93.4W AT 08/2100Z AT 08/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.4N 93.2W FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 26.3N 93.9W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...140NE 130SE 90SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 28.6N 93.5W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...140NE 130SE 100SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 31.0N 92.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 25SE 20SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 140SE 100SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 32.9N 91.1W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 34.3N 89.2W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 35.8N 87.2W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 12/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.8N 93.4W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 09/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Tropical Depression Norbert Forecast Discussion Number 13
2020-10-08 22:33:20| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM MDT Thu Oct 08 2020 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 082033 TCDEP4 Tropical Depression Norbert Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192020 300 PM MDT Thu Oct 08 2020 Norbert has a ragged and disorganized appearance, with asymmetrical convection bursting intermittently around the center. Satellite imagery suggests that the system is now experiencing some southeasterly shear. A recent ASCAT overpass sampled peak winds of 24 kt, so the advisory intensity will remain 25 kt. The current environment surrounding Norbert is not forecast to change much over the next few days. Therefore, only minor fluctuations in intensity are expected to occur during that time. By 72 h, model guidance is indicating that the cyclone should encounter a more stable atmosphere, which would limit convection and cause Norbert to weaken. The cyclone is forecast to degenerate into a remnant low devoid of deep convection by day 4, but it is possible that the deep convection could dissipate long enough for Norbert to be declared a remnant low before that time. Another plausible scenario is that Norbert's low level circulation dissipates and opens up into a surface trough later in the forecast period. The only change to the latest NHC forecast is that no further strengthening is indicated, which is agreement with every available intensity model except the SHIPS guidance. Norbert has barely budged since early this morning due to a lack of steering currents. A weak mid-level ridge is forecast to build to the northeast of the cyclone Friday through Saturday, which should cause Norbert to eventually move west-northwest to northwest. By Sunday, however, a mid-upper level low digging across northern Mexico should weaken the ridge, and the model guidance has trended toward Norbert once again meandering for a couple of days. By day 5, low-level ridging building to the northwest of Norbert should cause the shallow system to begin a westward motion. Due to the lack of run-to-run model consistency in the 3-5 day period, that portion of the track forecast is of low confidence. The NHC forecast track was changed little through 48 h, then is slower at 60-96 h to reflect the second collapse of the steering currents. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/2100Z 13.1N 106.1W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 09/0600Z 13.0N 106.2W 25 KT 30 MPH 24H 09/1800Z 13.3N 106.7W 25 KT 30 MPH 36H 10/0600Z 13.9N 107.3W 25 KT 30 MPH 48H 10/1800Z 14.5N 107.6W 25 KT 30 MPH 60H 11/0600Z 14.8N 107.6W 25 KT 30 MPH 72H 11/1800Z 14.9N 107.7W 25 KT 30 MPH 96H 12/1800Z 15.0N 107.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 13/1800Z 15.1N 109.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Latto
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Tropical Depression Norbert Public Advisory Number 13
2020-10-08 22:32:50| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM MDT Thu Oct 08 2020 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 082032 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Norbert Advisory Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192020 300 PM MDT Thu Oct 08 2020 ...POORLY ORGANIZED NORBERT REMAINS PARKED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES OFFSHORE OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.1N 106.1W ABOUT 425 MI...685 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Norbert was located near latitude 13.1 North, longitude 106.1 West. The depression is stationary and little motion is expected through tonight. A slow west-northwest to northwest motion is expected Friday through Saturday. The system is then forecast to meander again later this weekend. Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next few days. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Latto
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