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Tropical Storm Gamma Public Advisory Number 10A
2020-10-05 01:56:51| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 700 PM CDT Sun Oct 04 2020 000 WTNT35 KNHC 042356 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Gamma Intermediate Advisory Number 10A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL252020 700 PM CDT Sun Oct 04 2020 ...GAMMA CONTINUES TO DRIFT NEAR THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA... ...AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE INVESTIGATING THE TROPICAL STORM NOW... SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.9N 87.4W ABOUT 185 MI...295 KM NE OF PROGRESO MEXICO ABOUT 170 MI...275 KM N OF COZUMEL MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 75 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...5 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * North and west of Cancun to Dzilam Mexico A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * West of Dzilam to Progreso Mexico A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are occurring somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gamma was located by an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter Aircraft near latitude 22.9 North, longitude 87.4 West. The tropical storm is currently drifting east-northeastward near 3 mph (5 km/h). Gamma is forecast to gradually turn toward the southwest or west-southwest on Monday and move slowly in that direction through mid-week. On the forecast track, the center of Gamma will continue to meander offshore of the northern Yucatan Peninsula tonight and pass near or just offshore of the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula on Monday and Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is anticipated to begin later tonight or on Monday and continue into Tuesday. Afterward, little change in strength is forecast. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure based on preliminary data from the Hurricane Hunter plane is 998 mb (29.47 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Storm Gamma can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml. RAINFALL: Gamma is expected to produce an additional 3 to 6 inches of rainfall, with isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches, across portions of the Mexican states of Yucatan, Campeche and Tabasco. This rainfall may enhance any ongoing flash flooding and result in new areas of flash flooding into the middle of the week. WIND: Tropical storm conditions should continue within portions of the Tropical Storm Warning area on northern coast of the Yucatan through today. Tropical Storm conditions are possible within the Tropical Storm Watch area later today through Monday. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Potential Tropical Cyclone Twenty-Six Public Advisory Number 1A
2020-10-05 01:32:19| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 800 PM EDT Sun Oct 04 2020 000 WTNT31 KNHC 042332 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Twenty-Six Intermediate Advisory Number 1A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL262020 800 PM EDT Sun Oct 04 2020 ...DISTURBANCE JUST SOUTH OF JAMAICA FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA... SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.9N 76.9W ABOUT 75 MI...125 KM S OF KINGSTON JAMAICA ABOUT 325 MI...525 KM ESE OF GRAND CAYMAN MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Cuban provinces of Pinar del Rio and Artemisa * Isle of Youth A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Cayman Islands including Little Cayman and Cayman Brac A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Cuba province of La Habana A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 16.9 North, longitude 76.9 West. The system is moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this general motion should continue for the next day or so. A faster northwestward motion is expected on Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of the disturbance is expected to pass just south of Jamaica tonight and early Monday, move near or over the Cayman Islands Monday night, and approach the Isle of Youth and western Cuba Tuesday afternoon or evening. The system is forecast to move into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico Tuesday night or early Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is expected during the next few days and the system is forecast to be a tropical storm when it nears the Cayman Islands on Monday, and a hurricane when it moves near or over western Cuba on Tuesday. Conditions are conducive for development and the system is forecast to become a tropical depression or storm tonight or early Monday. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...high...near 100 percent The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Twenty-Six can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 3 to 5 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast of the Isle of Youth and along the south coast of western Cuba near and to right of where the center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. RAINFALL: Through midweek, this system has the potential to produce 3 to 5 inches of rain with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches across Jamaica, southern Haiti, and western Cuba. This rainfall could lead to life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. Over the Cayman Islands, 2 to 4 inches of rainfall will be possible with this system. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Cayman Islands beginning late Monday. Hurricane conditions are possible within the Hurricane Watch area by Tuesday afternoon, with tropical storm conditions possible by early Tuesday. Tropical Storm conditions are possible in the Tropical Storm Watch area in Cuba by early Tuesday. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Potential Tropical Cyclone Twenty-Six Forecast Discussion Number 1
2020-10-04 23:02:19| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM EDT Sun Oct 04 2020 000 WTNT41 KNHC 042102 TCDAT1 Potential Tropical Cyclone Twenty-Six Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL262020 500 PM EDT Sun Oct 04 2020 Visible satellite imagery and earlier scatterometer data indicated that the circulation associated with the area of low pressure in the central Caribbean Sea has gradually become better defined. The associated deep convection does not yet have enough organization to classify the system as a tropical depression, but there has been some increase in convection just south of the estimated center. The earlier ASCAT data revealed peak winds of around 30 kt over the northeastern portion of the circulation, and that is the basis for the initial intensity. The disturbance is located over warm waters and in a moist environment, but there is some modest northeasterly shear over the system. The global models indicate that the shear will decrease overnight, and the oceanic and atmospheric environment is expected to quite favorable for both the development of a tropical cyclone and subsequent strengthening of the system over the northwestern Caribbean Sea during the next couple of days. The intensity guidance is quite aggressive, but also assumes that the system already has a tropical cyclone structure. Therefore, the NHC intensity forecast is a little below the intensity consensus during the first 24-48 hours, but does show the system at or near hurricane strength by the time is near western Cuba on Tuesday. Environmental conditions are expected to remain favorable for strengthening over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico, and additional strengthening is predicted during that time. Late in the period, conditions are forecast to become less conducive as the vertical wind shear increases and the system nears the cooler shelf waters of the northern Gulf of Mexico. The disturbance is moving west-northwestward or 290/9 kt. A mid- to upper-level ridge over the western Atlantic is forecast to build westward over the next few days, which should continue to steer the system west-northwestward to northwestward over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and southeastern Gulf of Mexico. The forward speed of the system is likely to increase in 48 to 72 hours while it moves between the ridge and Tropical Storm Gamma to its southwest. After 72 hours, the cyclone is forecast to slow down and turn northward around the western portion of the ridge and a mid- to upper-level trough over the south-central United States. The track guidance is in relatively good agreement during the first 48 to 72 hours, but there is increasing spread thereafter. Users are reminded that the average 4- and 5-day NHC track forecast errors are about 160 to 200 miles at those time periods. Key Messages: 1. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Cayman Islands beginning late Monday, and a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect. 2. Dangerous storm surge and hurricane conditions are possible in portions of western Cuba and the Isle of Youth by Tuesday afternoon, and a Hurricane Watch is in effect. 3. Heavy rainfall will affect portions of Hispaniola, Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and western Cuba during the next few days and could lead to life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. 4. The system is forecast to approach the northern Gulf Coast late this week as a hurricane. While there is large uncertainty in the track and intensity forecasts at these time ranges, there is a risk of dangerous storm surge, wind, and rainfall hazards along the coast from Louisiana to the western Florida Panhandle. Residents in these areas should monitor the progress of the system and check for updates to the forecast during the week. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/2100Z 16.7N 76.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 12H 05/0600Z 17.1N 77.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 24H 05/1800Z 18.0N 79.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 06/0600Z 19.0N 80.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 06/1800Z 21.0N 82.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 60H 07/0600Z 23.1N 85.4W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 07/1800Z 24.7N 87.9W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 08/1800Z 26.5N 90.3W 85 KT 100 MPH 120H 09/1800Z 28.6N 90.3W 85 KT 100 MPH $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Storm Gamma Forecast Discussion Number 10
2020-10-04 22:58:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Sun Oct 04 2020 000 WTNT45 KNHC 042058 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Gamma Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL252020 400 PM CDT Sun Oct 04 2020 The last aircraft reconnaissance fix, recorded a couple of hours ago, indicated that Gamma's center had wobbled a little to the right of the previous 6-hour motion and is located near the southeastern edge of the convective canopy. Flight-level winds adjusted to the surface, SFMR wind data, and a blend of Dvorak satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB still support an initial intensity of 50 kt for this advisory. The UW-CIMSS shear analysis reveals stiff 20-25 kt southerly shear impinging on the south portion of the cyclone. Subsequently, the large-scale models and the ECMWF/GFS statistical-dynamical intensity guidance show the shear magnitude increasing during the next 24 hours. This inhibiting upper wind pattern should induce weakening soon. Although the shear is predicted to decrease somewhat around mid-period, Gamma should exhibit little change in strength through the remaining period which is in best agreement with all of the skilled intensity guidance. As mentioned in previous advisories, it cannot be stressed enough the relatively high level of uncertainty in this intensity forecast, and that it's primarily dependent on whether or not the cyclone moves back over the Yucatan Peninsula. Gamma should continue to move little, or meander over the southern Gulf of Mexico, near the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula through most of tomorrow. By Monday night, the global models are in good agreement with the western extent of a subtropical ridge reestablishing temporarily over the central Gulf of Mexico. This change in the synoptic steering pattern should cause the cyclone to turn and move west-southwestward through the 72 hour forecast period. After a brief reduction in forward speed late Wednesday, while Potential-Tropical Cyclone Twenty-Six moves into the central Gulf of Mexico, a turn toward the northwest is expected on Thursday as the ridge, once again, builds back over the central Gulf in response to PTC Twenty-Six approaching the northern Gulf coast. The official track forecast is adjusted to the left of the previous one through the 60 hour period to agree more with the HCCA consensus, and shifted to the right through day 5. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Gamma is expected to produce heavy rainfall for several days over portions of southeastern Mexico, the Yucatan Peninsula, Central America, and far western Cuba. This rainfall could result in life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides, particularly in the mountainous regions of southeastern Mexico and Central America. 2. Even though Gamma is just offshore, tropical storm conditions will continue across portions of the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula today. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/2100Z 22.4N 87.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 05/0600Z 22.3N 88.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 05/1800Z 22.1N 88.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 06/0600Z 21.7N 89.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 06/1800Z 21.3N 90.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 07/0600Z 20.8N 91.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 07/1800Z 20.1N 91.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 08/1800Z 21.0N 92.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 09/1800Z 22.2N 92.7W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Roberts
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Tropical Storm Gamma Wind Speed Probabilities Number 10
2020-10-04 22:57:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN OCT 04 2020 000 FONT15 KNHC 042057 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM GAMMA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL252020 2100 UTC SUN OCT 04 2020 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GAMMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT GFMX 250N 960W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) VERACRUZ MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) FRONTERA MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) MERIDA MX 34 1 1( 2) 6( 8) 5(13) 3(16) 3(19) 1(20) MERIDA MX 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) COZUMEL MX 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) 1( 6) BELIZE CITY 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 1 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
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