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Hurricane Marie Wind Speed Probabilities Number 23
2020-10-04 22:32:20| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN OCT 04 2020 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 042032 PWSEP3 HURRICANE MARIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 23 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182020 2100 UTC SUN OCT 04 2020 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MARIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 129.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 130W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) 20N 130W 50 59 X(59) X(59) X(59) X(59) X(59) X(59) 25N 130W 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 20N 135W 34 1 2( 3) 2( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) 25N 135W 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 4( 6) 3( 9) 1(10) X(10) 25N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
Hurricane Marie Public Advisory Number 23
2020-10-04 22:31:49| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Sun Oct 04 2020 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 042031 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Hurricane Marie Advisory Number 23 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182020 200 PM PDT Sun Oct 04 2020 ...MARIE CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.3N 129.5W ABOUT 1270 MI...2045 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB...29.03 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Marie was located near latitude 20.3 North, longitude 129.5 West. Marie is moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). This general motion is expected to continue for the next few days, with a slight decrease in forward speed by the middle of the week. Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is anticipated. Marie is forecast to become a tropical storm later today and could become a tropical depression or remnant low by Wednesday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 983 mb (29.03 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Hurricane Marie Forecast Advisory Number 23
2020-10-04 22:31:18| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN OCT 04 2020 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 042031 TCMEP3 HURRICANE MARIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 23 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182020 2100 UTC SUN OCT 04 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.3N 129.5W AT 04/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 983 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT.......120NE 110SE 100SW 120NW. 12 FT SEAS..210NE 180SE 270SW 270NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.3N 129.5W AT 04/2100Z AT 04/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.1N 129.1W FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 20.7N 130.4W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 80SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 21.4N 131.9W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 70SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 22.1N 133.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 40SE 40SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 22.7N 134.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 23.3N 135.8W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 23.7N 136.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 08/1800Z 24.0N 138.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 09/1800Z 24.0N 140.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.3N 129.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0300Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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Tropical Storm Gamma Public Advisory Number 9A
2020-10-04 19:44:47| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 100 PM CDT Sun Oct 04 2020 000 WTNT35 KNHC 041744 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Gamma Intermediate Advisory Number 9A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL252020 100 PM CDT Sun Oct 04 2020 ...GAMMA MEANDERING JUST NORTH OF THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA... SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.4N 88.0W ABOUT 60 MI...90 KM NNE OF RIO LAGARTOS MEXICO ABOUT 120 MI...190 KM NE OF PROGRESO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 005 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * North and west of Cancun to Dzilam Mexico A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * West of Dzilam to Progreso Mexico A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are occurring somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gamma was located near latitude 22.4 North, longitude 88.0 West. Gamma is moving toward the north near 2 mph (4 km/h), and this general motion with a further decrease in forward speed is expected today. Gamma should turn toward the west or west-southwest tonight or Monday, and a slow southwestward motion should continue Monday night through early Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Gamma will meander offshore of the northern Yucatan Peninsula and over the extreme southern Gulf of Mexico today, and pass near or just offshore of the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula on Monday and Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected through this evening. Gradual weakening is anticipated to begin later tonight or on Monday and continue into Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is 997 mb (29.44 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Storm Gamma can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml. RAINFALL: Gamma is expected to produce an additional 2 to 4 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches across portions of northern Yucatan and far western Cuba through early Tuesday. This rainfall may prolong or enhance any ongoing flash flooding. Through the middle of the week, a separate area of significant rain is possible in the Mexican states of Campeche, Tabasco, and southeast Veracruz, with rainfall of 4 to 6 inches and isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. Another remote area of heavy rain associated with Gamma is expected to bring additional accumulations of 1 to 3 inches and isolated maximum amounts of 5 inches in southern Guatemala towards the Gulf of Fonseca region between eastern El Salvador, southern Honduras, and northwest Nicaragua. WIND: Tropical storm conditions should continue within portions of the Tropical Storm Warning area on northern coast of the Yucatan through today. Tropical Storm conditions are possible within the Tropical Storm Watch area later today through Monday. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Hurricane Marie Forecast Discussion Number 22
2020-10-04 16:45:13| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Sun Oct 04 2020 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 041445 TCDEP3 Hurricane Marie Discussion Number 22 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182020 800 AM PDT Sun Oct 04 2020 Conventional satellite imagery reveals an increasingly apparent asymmetric/vertical tilt due to persistent west-southwesterly shear. The surface center is beginning to become exposed and is now near the western edge of the deep convective mass. The initial intensity is lowered to 80 kt for this advisory and is based on a compromise of the available subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates. Weakening should continue rather quickly through the forecast period while the shear magnitude increases with time and the cyclone traverses cooler oceanic surface temperatures. Marie should degenerate to a post-tropical remnant low in 3 days, or less, and this is in agreement with the majority of the global/regional and statistical guidance. The intensity forecast is near the IVCN intensity consensus and above the ECMWF and GFS Decay SHIPS which actually show dissipation in less than 4 days. Maria's initial motion is estimated to be northwestward, or 315/6 kt, within the mid-tropospheric steering flow provided by a subtropical ridge anchored to the north of the cyclone. Marie should continue moving in either a west-northwestward or northwestward motion through the remainder of forecast period with some reduction in forward speed, day 3 and beyond. The NHC forecast track has been adjusted a little bit south of the previous advisory after the 24 hour period in order to be closer to the various multi-model consensus aids and to conform more with a motion typical of a shallower, vertically limited system moving through the trade wind flow. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/1500Z 20.3N 128.6W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 05/0000Z 20.7N 129.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 05/1200Z 21.3N 131.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 06/0000Z 22.0N 132.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 06/1200Z 22.7N 133.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 07/0000Z 23.4N 135.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 07/1200Z 24.0N 136.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 08/1200Z 24.8N 136.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 09/1200Z 25.3N 137.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Roberts
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