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Tropical Storm Gamma Forecast Discussion Number 9
2020-10-04 16:43:47| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Sun Oct 04 2020 000 WTNT45 KNHC 041443 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Gamma Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL252020 1000 AM CDT Sun Oct 04 2020 An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft has found the center of Gamma over the far southern Gulf of Mexico, just north of the Yucatan Peninsula. Early morning visible satellite imagery has revealed decent banding structure over the northern and western portions of the circulation. The aircraft has measured a peak 850 mb flight-level wind of 66 kt and SFMR winds of 47 kt. A blend of these data support an initial intensity of 50 kt, which is also in line with the latest Dvorak classifications of T3.0 and T3.5 from SAB and TAFB, respectively. Gamma appears to be slowing down as anticipated, with an initial motion estimate of 360/3 kt. Gamma is expected to meander over the southern Gulf of Mexico, just north of the northern coast of the Yucatan peninsula during the next 12-24 hours. By late Monday, the western portion of a subtropical ridge is expected to build westward over the northern Gulf of Mexico. This should cause Gamma to turn westward to west-southwestward through the remainder of the forecast period. The dynamical model guidance is in general agreement on this scenario, but there are some differences in how close Gamma tracks to the northwestern portion of the Yucatan peninsula. The NHC track splits these differences and is a blend TCVA multi-model consensus and the HFIP corrected consensus. The new track forecast is very close to the previous official forecast. Although Gamma has re-strengthened this morning, increasing southerly wind shear is expected over the cyclone by tonight. This unfavorable upper-level environment is likely to cause some gradual weakening by late tonight and Monday. Since the vertical shear expected to remain moderate to strong through the latter portion of the forecast period, little overall change in strength is shown after 48 hours. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Gamma is expected to produce heavy rainfall for several days over portions of southeastern Mexico, the Yucatan Peninsula, Central America, and far western Cuba. This rainfall could result in life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides, particularly in the mountainous regions of southeastern Mexico and Central America. 2. Even though Gamma is offshore, tropical storm conditions will continue across portions of the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula today. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/1500Z 22.2N 88.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 05/0000Z 22.6N 88.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 05/1200Z 22.6N 88.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 06/0000Z 22.3N 89.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 06/1200Z 22.0N 90.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 07/0000Z 21.5N 91.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 07/1200Z 21.0N 91.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 08/1200Z 20.4N 92.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 09/1200Z 20.4N 93.0W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Storm Gamma Forecast Advisory Number 9
2020-10-04 16:43:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN OCT 04 2020 000 WTNT25 KNHC 041443 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM GAMMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL252020 1500 UTC SUN OCT 04 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH AND WEST OF CANCUN TO DZILAM MEXICO A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * WEST OF DZILAM TO PROGRESO MEXICO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.2N 88.2W AT 04/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 2 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT.......100NE 40SE 40SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.2N 88.2W AT 04/1500Z AT 04/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.1N 88.2W FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 22.6N 88.2W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 50SE 30SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 22.6N 88.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...100NE 40SE 20SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 22.3N 89.3W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...100NE 40SE 20SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 22.0N 90.2W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 40SE 20SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 21.5N 91.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 40SE 20SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 21.0N 91.6W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 40SE 20SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 08/1200Z 20.4N 92.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 09/1200Z 20.4N 93.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.2N 88.2W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 04/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Tropical Storm Gamma Public Advisory Number 8
2020-10-04 10:52:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Sun Oct 04 2020 000 WTNT35 KNHC 040852 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Gamma Advisory Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL252020 400 AM CDT Sun Oct 04 2020 ...GAMMA LOCATED OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO... ...TORRENTIAL RAINS OCCURRING OVER THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA... SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.0N 88.2W ABOUT 110 MI...175 KM ENE OF PROGRESO MEXICO ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM N OF RIO LAGARTOS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning south of Cancun. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * North and west of Cancun to Dzilam Mexico A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * West of Dzilam to Progreso Mexico A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are occurring somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gamma was located near latitude 22.0 North, longitude 88.2 West. Gamma is moving toward the north near 5 mph (7 km/h), and this general motion with a further decrease in forward speed is forecast today. Gamma should turn toward the west or west-southwest tonight or Monday. On the forecast track, the center of Gamma will meander offshore of the northern Yucatan Peninsula and over the extreme southern Gulf of Mexico today, and pass near or just offshore of the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula on Monday and Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Some re-strengthening is expected today, followed by weakening tonight or Monday, which should continue into Wednesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km), mainly north and east of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.39 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Storm Gamma can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml. RAINFALL: Gamma is expected to produce an additional 2 to 4 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches across portions of northern Yucatan and far western Cuba through early Tuesday. This rainfall may prolong or enhance any ongoing flash flooding. Through the middle of the week, a separate area of significant rain is possible in the Mexican states of Campeche, Tabasco, northern Chiapas, and southeast Veracruz, with rainfall of 6 to 8 inches and isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. Another area of heavy rain will impact southern Guatemala towards the Gulf of Fonseca region between eastern El Salvador, southern Honduras, and northwest Nicaragua, with accumulations of 4 to 6 inches and isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches. WIND: Tropical storm conditions should continue within the Tropical Storm Warning area on northern coast of the Yucatan through today. Tropical Storm conditions are possible within the Tropical Storm Watch area on Monday. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT. Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Storm Gamma Wind Speed Probabilities Number 8
2020-10-04 10:52:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN OCT 04 2020 000 FONT15 KNHC 040852 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM GAMMA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL252020 0900 UTC SUN OCT 04 2020 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GAMMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 88.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT VERACRUZ MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 4( 7) FRONTERA MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) MERIDA MX 34 1 1( 2) 3( 5) 3( 8) 3(11) 1(12) 1(13) COZUMEL MX 34 2 2( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) 1( 7) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 2 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
Tropical Storm Gamma Forecast Advisory Number 8
2020-10-04 10:52:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN OCT 04 2020 000 WTNT25 KNHC 040852 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM GAMMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL252020 0900 UTC SUN OCT 04 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING SOUTH OF CANCUN. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH AND WEST OF CANCUN TO DZILAM MEXICO A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * WEST OF DZILAM TO PROGRESO MEXICO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.0N 88.2W AT 04/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 355 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT.......100NE 0SE 0SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 0SE 0SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.0N 88.2W AT 04/0900Z AT 04/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.8N 88.2W FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 22.6N 88.3W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 50SE 20SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 22.7N 88.6W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...100NE 40SE 20SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 22.4N 89.4W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...100NE 40SE 20SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 22.0N 90.2W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...100NE 40SE 20SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 21.5N 90.9W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...100NE 40SE 20SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 21.0N 91.6W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...100NE 40SE 20SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 08/0600Z 20.4N 92.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 09/0600Z 20.4N 93.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.0N 88.2W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 04/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/1500Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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