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Tropical Storm Marie Wind Speed Probabilities Number 25
2020-10-05 10:30:59| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC MON OCT 05 2020 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 050830 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM MARIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 25 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182020 0900 UTC MON OCT 05 2020 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 131.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 130W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) 20N 135W 34 1 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 25N 135W 34 X 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 25N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
Tropical Storm Marie Forecast Advisory Number 25
2020-10-05 10:30:26| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC MON OCT 05 2020 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 050830 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM MARIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 25 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182020 0900 UTC MON OCT 05 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.8N 131.1W AT 05/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 0SW 60NW. 34 KT.......110NE 100SE 80SW 110NW. 12 FT SEAS..210NE 150SE 180SW 210NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.8N 131.1W AT 05/0900Z AT 05/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 130.7W FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 21.2N 132.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 80SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 21.8N 133.6W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 70SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 22.4N 135.2W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 22.9N 136.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 23.2N 137.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 23.2N 138.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 09/0600Z 23.0N 140.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 10/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.8N 131.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Tropical Depression Twenty-Six Public Advisory Number 2A
2020-10-05 07:50:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 200 AM EDT Mon Oct 05 2020 000 WTNT31 KNHC 050550 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Twenty-Six Intermediate Advisory Number 2A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL262020 200 AM EDT Mon Oct 05 2020 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA THROUGH TUESDAY... SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.9N 77.8W ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM SW OF KINGSTON JAMAICA ABOUT 280 MI...450 KM SE OF GRAND CAYMAN MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Cuban provinces of Pinar del Rio and Artemisa * Isle of Youth A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Cayman Islands including Little Cayman and Cayman Brac A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Cuba province of La Habana A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Twenty-Six was located near latitude 16.9 North, longitude 77.8 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general motion should continue for the next day or so. A faster northwestward motion is expected on Tuesday and Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of the depression is expected to pass just south of Jamaica through this morning, move near or over the Cayman Islands later tonight, and approach the Isle of Youth and western Cuba Tuesday afternoon or evening. The tropical cyclone is forecast to move into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico Tuesday night or early Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is expected during the next few days, and the depression is forecast to become a tropical storm when it nears the Cayman Islands later today, and be a hurricane when it moves near or over western Cuba on Tuesday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Depression Twenty-Six can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 3 to 5 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast of the Isle of Youth and along the south coast of western Cuba near and to right of where the center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. RAINFALL: Through midweek, this system is expected to produce 3 to 5 inches of rain with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches across Jamaica and western Cuba. This rainfall could lead to life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. Over the Cayman Islands, 2 to 4 inches of rainfall will be possible with this system. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Cayman Islands beginning late today. Hurricane conditions are possible within the Hurricane Watch area by Tuesday afternoon, with tropical storm conditions possible by early Tuesday. Tropical Storm conditions are possible in the Tropical Storm Watch area in Cuba by early Tuesday. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Storm Gamma Public Advisory Number 11A
2020-10-05 07:46:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 100 AM CDT Mon Oct 05 2020 000 WTNT35 KNHC 050546 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Gamma Intermediate Advisory Number 11A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL252020 100 AM CDT Mon Oct 05 2020 ...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FINDS GAMMA A LITTLE WEAKER WHILE IT CONTINUES TO MEANDER JUST NORTH OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA... SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.8N 87.4W ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM ENE OF PROGRESO MEXICO ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM NNW OF COZUMEL MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * North and west of Cancun to Dzilam Mexico A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * West of Dzilam to Campeche Mexico A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are occurring somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicated that the center of Tropical Storm Gamma was located near latitude 22.8 North, longitude 87.4 West. The tropical storm is drifting toward the west near 2 mph (4 km/h). Gamma is forecast to gradually turn toward the southwest or west-southwest later today, and continue to move slowly in that direction through mid-week. On the forecast track, the center of Gamma will continue to meander offshore of the northern Yucatan Peninsula this morning, and pass near or just offshore of the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula late today and on Tuesday. Data from the reconnaissance aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Further weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Afterward, little change in strength is forecast. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure based on measurements from the hurricane hunter plane is 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Storm Gamma can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml. RAINFALL: Gamma is expected to produce an additional 3 to 6 inches of rainfall, with isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches, across portions of the Mexican states of Yucatan, Campeche and Tabasco. This rainfall may enhance any ongoing flash flooding and result in new areas of flash flooding into the middle of the week. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are likely in portions of the Tropical Storm Warning area along the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula today. Tropical Storm conditions are possible within the Tropical Storm Watch area late today and on Tuesday. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Storm Gamma Forecast Discussion Number 11
2020-10-05 04:39:22| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Sun Oct 04 2020 000 WTNT45 KNHC 050239 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Gamma Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL252020 1000 PM CDT Sun Oct 04 2020 Gamma has moved much farther northeast than previously anticipated. With little in the way of low or mid-level large-scale steering flow currently in place, it seems likely that upper-level southwesterlies, also responsible for the shear affecting the tropical storm, are causing this recent northeastward motion. This may be either through reformations of the center closer to the convection or a direct contribution to the net steering. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is currently investigating Gamma and so far has found max SFMR winds of 47 kt but flight level winds of only 45 kt. Given the data so far, there is no indication that Gamma is any stronger than the 50 kt intensity, but it seems prudent to let the plane finish its pattern before lowering the winds at this time. Gamma's future track is highly uncertain. The track guidance spread is much higher than usual, and confidence in the forecast is accordingly low. Most of the global models indicate that Gamma will soon begin moving generally west-southwestward as a mid-level ridge briefly builds over the eastern and central Gulf of Mexico. Unfortunately, there is little agreement on exactly when this will happen or how fast Gamma will move once it turns. After about 48 h, Gamma could interact with Tropical Depression Twenty-Six, which is forecast to move over the northwestern Caribbean Sea at that time. Current dynamical models are notoriously bad at forecasting such interactions, but if the two systems do interact it will likely cause Gamma to move inland over the Yucatan. Whether such an interaction occurs or not, continued shear and proximity to land should cause the tropical storm to gradually weaken, and Gamma could dissipate if it moves over land (and stays there) in a few days, as shown by the GFS. The ECMWF shows the vortex remaining over water but dissipating nonetheless, while a couple other global models maintain the vortex longer and show it moving north over the central Gulf of Mexico late in the forecast period. The NHC forecast is a compromise between those solutions, showing a remnant low moving north over the southern Gulf of Mexico by day 5. In general, the NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous one, but slightly lower to account for the system potentially moving inland. Due to the uncertainty in the forecast at this time, future advisories may feature larger than normal changes to the track or intensity forecast. It is also worth noting that several dynamical model trackers appear to lose Gamma and jump to tracking Tropical Depression Twenty-Six when it reaches the Gulf of Mexico, resulting in unrealistic depictions of the intensity and track forecasts. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Gamma is expected to produce heavy rainfall for several days over portions of southeastern Mexico, the Yucatan Peninsula, Central America, and far western Cuba. This rainfall could result in life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides, particularly in the mountainous regions of southeastern Mexico and Central America. 2. Even though Gamma is just offshore, tropical storm conditions are likely along portions of the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula on Monday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/0300Z 22.8N 87.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 05/1200Z 22.7N 87.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 06/0000Z 22.3N 88.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 06/1200Z 21.8N 89.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 07/0000Z 21.3N 90.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 07/1200Z 20.3N 90.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 08/0000Z 20.2N 90.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 96H 09/0000Z 22.0N 90.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...OVER WATER 120H 10/0000Z 24.0N 91.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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