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Hurricane Marie Forecast Discussion Number 15
2020-10-02 22:41:59| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Fri Oct 02 2020 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 022041 TCDEP3 Hurricane Marie Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182020 200 PM PDT Fri Oct 02 2020 Marie remains a powerful hurricane this afternoon. A 1530 UTC SSMIS 91 GHz microwave image showed a well-defined, closed eyewall with a 20 nm eye, which is still evident in recent GOES-17 visible and infrared satellite imagery. The initial intensity is held at 115 kt based on T6.0 Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB, which are consistent with recent ADT and earlier SATCON estimates. The 34-kt radii are expanded slightly with this package based on recent ASCAT data. Marie is moving west-northwestward (295 degrees) at 10 kt, around the southwestern periphery of a mid-level ridge centered over the southwestern United States. A break in the ridge should allow Marie to turn northwestward within the next 24 hours and maintain that motion over the next several days. By day 5, an approaching upper-level trough moving across the eastern Pacific Ocean should turn Marie more toward the north-northwest. There is still more noticeable spread in the guidance at days 4 and 5, likely related to differences in the amplitude of the upper-level trough. It is worth noting that the GFS depicts a deeper upper trough, and thus a more drastic northerly turn, than the rest of the global models. Overall, the NHC forecast was again slowed down a bit and shifted slightly to the right to align better with the latest TVCE multi-model consensus and HCCA aids. Marie is expected to remain in a low-shear environment with sea surface temperatures of 26 degrees Celsius for the next 18-24 hours. Although slight additional strengthening cannot be ruled out, the storm is running out of time before environmental conditions become more hostile. After 24 hours, increasing deep-layer southwesterly shear and cooler waters should support a steady weakening trend through the rest of the forecast period. Marie is expected to fall below hurricane strength by 60 hours and become a tropical depression by day 5. The latest NHC intensity forecast shows a slightly faster weakening trend and remains very close to the IVCN consensus and the HCCA aid. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/2100Z 16.9N 125.0W 115 KT 130 MPH 12H 03/0600Z 17.6N 126.1W 115 KT 130 MPH 24H 03/1800Z 18.6N 127.4W 105 KT 120 MPH 36H 04/0600Z 19.5N 128.4W 90 KT 105 MPH 48H 04/1800Z 20.1N 129.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 60H 05/0600Z 20.6N 130.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 05/1800Z 21.2N 132.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 06/1800Z 22.0N 134.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 07/1800Z 23.5N 136.0W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ Forecaster Reinhart/Berg
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Hurricane Marie Wind Speed Probabilities Number 15
2020-10-02 22:40:20| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI OCT 02 2020 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 022040 PWSEP3 HURRICANE MARIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182020 2100 UTC FRI OCT 02 2020 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MARIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 125.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 115 KTS...130 MPH...215 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 125W 34 2 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 20N 125W 34 3 9(12) 4(16) 2(18) 1(19) X(19) X(19) 15N 130W 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 20N 130W 34 X 5( 5) 43(48) 27(75) 9(84) X(84) X(84) 20N 130W 50 X X( X) 10(10) 24(34) 10(44) X(44) X(44) 20N 130W 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 13(15) 7(22) X(22) X(22) 25N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) 20N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 8(17) 2(19) 20N 135W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 25N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) $$ FORECASTER REINHART/BERG
Hurricane Marie Public Advisory Number 15
2020-10-02 22:39:44| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Fri Oct 02 2020 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 022039 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Hurricane Marie Advisory Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182020 200 PM PDT Fri Oct 02 2020 ...CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE MARIE HOLDING STEADY IN INTENSITY... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.9N 125.0W ABOUT 1065 MI...1710 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...948 MB...28.00 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Marie was located near latitude 16.9 North, longitude 125.0 West. Marie is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A motion toward the west-northwest or northwest with a gradual decrease in forward speed is expected during the next several days. Maximum sustained winds are near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher gusts. Marie is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are possible through tonight, followed by weakening beginning on Saturday. This weakening trend will continue into early next week. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 948 mb (28.00 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Reinhart/Berg
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Hurricane Marie Forecast Advisory Number 15
2020-10-02 22:39:15| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI OCT 02 2020 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 022039 TCMEP3 HURRICANE MARIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182020 2100 UTC FRI OCT 02 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 125.0W AT 02/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 948 MB EYE DIAMETER 20 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT.......130NE 130SE 60SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..300NE 330SE 210SW 240NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 125.0W AT 02/2100Z AT 02/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 124.6W FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 17.6N 126.1W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...130NE 130SE 60SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 18.6N 127.4W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 30SE 30SW 35NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 110SE 80SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 19.5N 128.4W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 25SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 80SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 20.1N 129.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 80SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 20.6N 130.8W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 70SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 21.2N 132.1W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 50SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 06/1800Z 22.0N 134.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 07/1800Z 23.5N 136.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.9N 125.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0300Z $$ FORECASTER REINHART/BERG
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Tropical Depression Twenty-Five Forecast Discussion Number 2
2020-10-02 22:34:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Fri Oct 02 2020 000 WTNT45 KNHC 022034 TCDAT5 Tropical Depression Twenty-Five Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL252020 400 PM CDT Fri Oct 02 2020 Convective banding features have become a little better defined over the southern portion of the circulation, but otherwise the system has not changed much in organization since earlier today. The current intensity estimate remains at 30 kt in agreement with a Dvorak estimate from TAFB, and scatterometer observations from a few hours ago. The SHIPS model output now shows some south-southwesterly shear affecting the system during the next few days. Otherwise, the environment should favor at least gradual strengthening, and the cyclone is likely to become a tropical storm prior to moving near the Yucatan Peninsula. The official intensity forecast is within the range of most of the model guidance. The initial motion estimate is the same as in the morning advisory, 315/8 kt. The depression should move along the southwestern periphery of a mid-tropospheric high pressure area for the next couple of days, causing the cyclone to move on a northwestward to north-northwestward heading. Later in the forecast period, the global models build a weak ridge across the northern half of the Gulf of Mexico. This should induce the cyclone to turn westward or even a little south of west in 3-5 days. The latest NHC forecast lies between the simple and corrected dynamical model consensus predictions, TVCA and HCCA, and is quite similar to the previous official forecast. At this time, the biggest threat from this slow-moving system is rain and flooding, particularly near and over mountainous terrain. KEY MESSAGES: 1. The system is expected to produce heavy rainfall that could result in life-threatening flash flooding over portions of the Yucatan Peninsula, far western Cuba and well away from the center in the Mexican states of Campeche, Tabasco, and northern Chiapas. 2. The depression is forecast to become a tropical storm and bring tropical storm conditions to portions of the Yucatan Peninsula on Saturday, where a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/2100Z 18.8N 85.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 03/0600Z 19.5N 86.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 03/1800Z 20.5N 87.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 04/0600Z 21.6N 87.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 04/1800Z 22.3N 87.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 05/0600Z 22.5N 88.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 05/1800Z 22.5N 88.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 06/1800Z 22.5N 91.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 07/1800Z 22.0N 92.5W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Pasch
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