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Hurricane Marie Public Advisory Number 18
2020-10-03 16:35:54| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Sat Oct 03 2020 289 WTPZ33 KNHC 031435 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Hurricane Marie Advisory Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182020 800 AM PDT Sat Oct 03 2020 ...POWERFUL MARIE EXPECTED TO BEGIN WEAKENING LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.4N 126.9W ABOUT 1140 MI...1835 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...948 MB...28.00 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Marie was located near latitude 18.4 North, longitude 126.9 West. Marie is moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general motion with little change in speed is expected to continue through early next week. Maximum sustained winds are near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher gusts. Marie is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. The hurricane is expected to begin weakening later today, and a more rapid weakening trend is forecast into early next week. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 948 mb (28.00 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Reinhart/Berg
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Hurricane Marie Forecast Advisory Number 18
2020-10-03 16:35:00| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT OCT 03 2020 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 031434 TCMEP3 HURRICANE MARIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182020 1500 UTC SAT OCT 03 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 126.9W AT 03/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 948 MB EYE DIAMETER 20 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT.......130NE 130SE 60SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..300NE 360SE 270SW 345NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 126.9W AT 03/1500Z AT 03/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 126.7W FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 19.1N 127.7W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...130NE 120SE 70SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 20.0N 128.7W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 15SE 15SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 80SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 20.6N 129.8W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 10SE 10SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...110NE 100SE 70SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 21.2N 131.2W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 95NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 60SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 21.9N 132.4W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...100NE 70SE 40SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 22.5N 133.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 30SE 20SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 07/1200Z 23.5N 135.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 08/1200Z 24.5N 136.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.4N 126.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/2100Z $$ FORECASTER REINHART/BERG
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Tropical Storm Gamma Public Advisory Number 4A
2020-10-03 13:44:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 700 AM CDT Sat Oct 03 2020 000 WTNT35 KNHC 031144 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Gamma Intermediate Advisory Number 4A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL252020 700 AM CDT Sat Oct 03 2020 ...GAMMA STRENGTHENS SOME MORE AS IT APPROACHES THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA... SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.7N 87.2W ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM SSE OF TULUM MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Punta Herrero to Dzilam Mexico A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * South of Punta Herrero to Puerto Costa Maya Mexico * West of Dzilam to Progreso Mexico A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gamma was located near latitude 19.7 North, longitude 87.2 West. Gamma is moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this motion should continue at a slower forward speed today. A turn toward the north is expected on Sunday, followed by a turn to the west or west-southwest Sunday night or Monday. On the forecast track, the center of Gamma should move inland over the eastern Yucatan Peninsula later today, and be near the north coast of the Yucatan Peninsula on Sunday. Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight additional strengthening is possible before Gamma makes landfall on the Yucatan Peninsula today. After landfall, some weakening is expected. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center. The minimum central pressure estimated from Hurricane Hunter observations is 987 mb (29.15 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Storm Gamma can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml. RAINFALL: Gamma is expected to produce rainfall of 4 to 8 inches across portions of the Yucatan Peninsula and far western Cuba, with maximum rainfall amounts as high as 10 to 15 inches possible across the northeastern portion of the Mexican state of Quintana Roo. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flash floods. A separate area of significant rain is expected to develop well away from the center in the Mexican states of Campeche, Tabasco, and northern Chiapas with rainfall of 8 to 12 inches and isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. Rainfall of 1 to 3 inches with maximum amounts of 5 inches is expected in the Bay Islands of Honduras and over the Cayman Islands. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are spreading into the Tropical Storm Warning area on the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula, and these conditions should spread across the remainder of the warning area through Sunday. Tropical Storm conditions are possible within the Tropical Storm Watch area later today and on Sunday. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Storm Gamma Forecast Discussion Number 4
2020-10-03 11:05:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Sat Oct 03 2020 000 WTNT45 KNHC 030905 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Gamma Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL252020 400 AM CDT Sat Oct 03 2020 Satellite imagery and reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that Gamma is strengthening. A central dense overcast with cloud tops to -85C has formed, along with an outer convective band in the eastern semicircle. The aircraft has reported maximum 850 mb flight-level winds of 58 kt and reliable- looking surface wind estimates from the Stepped Frequency Microwave Radiometer of 40-45 kt. Based on this, the initial intensity is increased to 45 kt. The initial motion is again a little to the left of the previous advisory, 305/8 kt. During the next 24-36 h, Gamma is expected to turn northward as it tries to recurve into a break in the subtropical ridge caused by a mid-latitude trough over the eastern United States. The track guidance, however, is in good agreement that the trough will bypass the tropical cyclone, with a ridge building to the north after 36 h. This should cause Gamma to turn westward or southwestward between the ridge and the Central American cyclonic gyre to the south. There is uncertainty as to whether Gamma will move over the Gulf of Mexico before this turn occurs, as the ECMWF keeps the center inland or very near the coast. The new forecast track is north of the ECMWF, but a little to the south of the previous track. The foreast track calls for landfall on the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula in about 12 h, followed by the center reaching the Gulf of Mexico in about 36 h and a track near the coast of the Yucatan Peninsula thereafter. Conditions appear favorable for strengthening until landfall, and the forecast 12-h intensity of 50 kt could be conservative given current trends. The remainder of the intensity forecast is quite uncertain due to the possibility of land interaction, dry air entrainment, shear, and possible interaction with another system to the east. The intensity guidance again does not show much strengthening if Gamma emerges into the Gulf of Mexico, and that part of the new intensity forecast has only minor adjustments from the previous one. It should be noted that several models show a low pressure area over the northern Gulf of Mexico after 120 h. Whether this will be Gamma or a new system is unclear at this time. The biggest threat from this large and slow-moving storm is the the potential for heavy rainfall and flooding, particularly near and over mountainous terrain. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Gamma is expected to produce heavy rainfall that could result in life-threatening flash flooding over portions of the Yucatan Peninsula, far western Cuba and well away from the center in the Mexican states of Campeche, Tabasco, and northern Chiapas. 2. Gamma is forecast to bring tropical storm conditions to portions of the Yucatan Peninsula today and Sunday, where a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/0900Z 19.4N 86.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 03/1800Z 20.2N 87.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 04/0600Z 21.1N 87.9W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 36H 04/1800Z 21.7N 88.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER 48H 05/0600Z 21.8N 88.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 05/1800Z 21.6N 89.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 06/0600Z 21.2N 90.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 07/0600Z 20.5N 92.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 08/0600Z 19.5N 93.5W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Storm Gamma Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4
2020-10-03 11:01:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT OCT 03 2020 000 FONT15 KNHC 030901 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM GAMMA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL252020 0900 UTC SAT OCT 03 2020 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GAMMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT VERACRUZ MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 4( 8) FRONTERA MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) MERIDA MX 34 2 6( 8) X( 8) 3(11) 5(16) 2(18) 1(19) MERIDA MX 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) COZUMEL MX 34 76 4(80) 1(81) X(81) 1(82) X(82) X(82) COZUMEL MX 50 7 2( 9) X( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) COZUMEL MX 64 1 X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) BELIZE CITY 34 1 X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 3 2( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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