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Tropical Storm Gamma Public Advisory Number 4
2020-10-03 11:00:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Sat Oct 03 2020 847 WTNT35 KNHC 030900 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Gamma Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL252020 400 AM CDT Sat Oct 03 2020 ...GAMMA CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE YUCATAN PENINSULA... ...HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED TO BE THE MAIN THREAT... SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.4N 86.9W ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM S OF COZUMEL MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.29 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the north coast of the Yucatan Peninsula from Cabo Catoche to Dzilam, and a Tropical Storm Watch for the north coast of the Yucatan Peninsula west of Dzilam to Progreso. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Punta Herrero to Dzilam Mexico A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * South of Punta Herrero to Puerto Costa Maya Mexico * West of Dzilam to Progreso Mexico A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gamma was located near latitude 19.4 North, longitude 86.9 West. Gamma is moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this motion should continue at a slower forward speed today. A turn toward the north is expected on Sunday, followed by a turn to the west or west-southwest Sunday night or Monday. On the forecast track, the center of Gamma should move inland over the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula later today, and be near the north coast of the Yucatan Peninsula on Sunday. Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is expected before Gamma makes landfall on the Yucatan Peninsula. After landfall, a slight weakening is expected. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center. The minimum central pressure extrapolated by the Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 992 mb (29.29 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Storm Gamma can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml. RAINFALL: Gamma is expected to produce rainfall of 4 to 8 inches across portions of the Yucatan Peninsula and far western Cuba, with maximum rainfall amounts as high as 10 to 15 inches possible across the northeastern portion of the Mexican state of Quintana Roo. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flash floods. A separate area of significant rain is expected to develop well away from the center in the Mexican states of Campeche, Tabasco, and northern Chiapas with rainfall of 8 to 12 inches and isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. Rainfall of 1 to 3 inches with maximum amounts of 5 inches is expected in the Bay Islands of Honduras and over the Cayman Islands. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are spreading into the Tropical Storm Warning area on the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula, and these conditions should spread across the remainder of the warning area through Sunday. Tropical Storm conditions are possible within the Tropical Storm Watch area later today and on Sunday. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT. Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Storm Gamma Forecast Advisory Number 4
2020-10-03 11:00:28| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT OCT 03 2020 000 WTNT25 KNHC 030900 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM GAMMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL252020 0900 UTC SAT OCT 03 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE NORTH COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CABO CATOCHE TO DZILAM...AND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE NORTH COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WEST OF DZILAM TO PROGRESO. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PUNTA HERRERO TO DZILAM MEXICO A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SOUTH OF PUNTA HERRERO TO PUERTO COSTA MAYA MEXICO * WEST OF DZILAM TO PROGRESO MEXICO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 86.9W AT 03/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 992 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 70NE 40SE 0SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 86.9W AT 03/0900Z AT 03/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 86.6W FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 20.2N 87.4W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 40SE 20SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 21.1N 87.9W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 40SE 20SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 21.7N 88.0W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...120NE 40SE 20SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 21.8N 88.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...120NE 40SE 40SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 21.6N 89.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...110NE 40SE 40SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 21.2N 90.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...100NE 40SE 40SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 07/0600Z 20.5N 92.4W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 08/0600Z 19.5N 93.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.4N 86.9W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 03/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Hurricane Marie Forecast Discussion Number 17
2020-10-03 10:38:20| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Sat Oct 03 2020 122 WTPZ43 KNHC 030838 TCDEP3 Hurricane Marie Discussion Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182020 200 AM PDT Sat Oct 03 2020 Marie continues to be a powerful and dangerous hurricane. Cloud tops surrounding the eye have cooled and the center is now surrounded by a ring of convection with tops colder than -70 degrees C. The latest Dvorak intensity estimate ranges have narrowed considerably to 115-122 kt, so there is higher confidence in the cyclone's strength. The initial advisory intensity is being kept at 115 kt and is in agreement with both of the subjective Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB. The environment surrounding Marie will soon become rather hostile and the hurricane will likely not maintain this intensity for much longer. By later today, increasing southwesterly winds aloft should begin to degrade the symmetry of the cyclone. Later tonight, the cyclone is forecast to cross the 26 degree C SST isotherm. And by Monday, Marie is expected be in an environment characterized by vertical wind shear greater than 30 kt, low- to mid-level relative humidity values of less than 40 percent, and over waters cooler than 25 degrees C. These increasingly negative factors are expected to cause Marie to begin weakening later today, with rapid weakening possible Sunday into Monday. The latest NHC intensity forecast is in good agreement with the various consensus intensity guidance, and indicates that Marie should weaken to a tropical storm on Sunday night and a tropical depression early next week. By the end of the forecast period, the system is expected to become a post tropical cyclone devoid of deep convection. Marie continues to move northwestward and is forecast to continue to do so through the remainder of the weekend as it moves along the southwest periphery of a mid-level ridge. The ridge is forecast to expand westward early next week, which should force the cyclone to turn to the west-northwest. Toward the end of the 5-day forecast period, a large deep-layer trough north of Marie should cause it to begin a turn to the right. The NHC track forecast is little changed from the previous one, and is close to the HFIP corrected consensus HCCA. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/0900Z 17.9N 126.4W 115 KT 130 MPH 12H 03/1800Z 18.6N 127.2W 110 KT 125 MPH 24H 04/0600Z 19.5N 128.2W 90 KT 105 MPH 36H 04/1800Z 20.3N 129.2W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 05/0600Z 20.9N 130.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 60H 05/1800Z 21.5N 131.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 06/0600Z 22.0N 133.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 07/0600Z 23.0N 135.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 08/0600Z 24.5N 136.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Latto
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Hurricane Marie Public Advisory Number 17
2020-10-03 10:37:51| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Sat Oct 03 2020 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 030837 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Hurricane Marie Advisory Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182020 200 AM PDT Sat Oct 03 2020 ...POWERFUL MARIE CONTINUES CHURNING NORTHWESTWARD... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.9N 126.4W ABOUT 1120 MI...1805 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...948 MB...28.00 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Marie was located near latitude 17.9 North, longitude 126.4 West. Marie is moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue through the weekend. A turn to the west-northwest is expected by Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher gusts. Marie is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. The hurricane is forecast to begin weakening later today, and this weakening trend should continue into early next week. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 948 mb (28.00 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Latto
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Hurricane Marie Wind Speed Probabilities Number 17
2020-10-03 10:37:51| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT OCT 03 2020 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 030837 PWSEP3 HURRICANE MARIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182020 0900 UTC SAT OCT 03 2020 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MARIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 126.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 115 KTS...130 MPH...215 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 125W 34 5 3( 8) 3(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) 20N 130W 34 1 30(31) 41(72) 9(81) 1(82) X(82) X(82) 20N 130W 50 X 3( 3) 24(27) 13(40) 2(42) X(42) X(42) 20N 130W 64 X X( X) 9( 9) 8(17) 1(18) X(18) X(18) 25N 130W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) 20N 135W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 6( 9) 3(12) 1(13) 25N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8) 25N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) $$ FORECASTER LATTO
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