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Tropical Storm Beta Public Advisory Number 12
2020-09-20 16:57:33| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Sun Sep 20 2020 000 WTNT32 KNHC 201457 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Beta Advisory Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL222020 1000 AM CDT Sun Sep 20 2020 ...BETA TRUDGING SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE TEXAS COAST... ...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FINDS NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.2N 93.0W ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM SE OF GALVESTON TEXAS ABOUT 225 MI...360 KM ESE OF PORT OCONNOR TEXAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Tropical Storm Watch has been discontinued south of Baffin Bay, Texas. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Port Aransas, Texas to Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge, Louisiana, including Copano Bay, Aransas Bay, San Antonio Bay, Matagorda Bay, Galveston Bay, Sabine Lake, and Lake Calcasieu A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Port Aransas Texas to Morgan City Louisiana A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Baffin Bay to Port Aransas Texas A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Beta was located by an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft near latitude 27.2 North, longitude 93.0 West. Beta is moving slowly toward the west-northwest near 3 mph (6 km/h). A slightly faster motion toward the west-northwest is forecast to occur during the next couple of days, followed by a slow down and a turn to the north and northeast Monday night and Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Beta will move toward the coast of Texas and will likely move inland Monday or Monday night, and remain close to the coast of southeastern Texas on Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next couple of days before Beta reaches the Texas coast. Weakening is anticipated once Beta moves inland. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195 miles (315 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from the reconnaissance aircraft is 996 mb (29.42 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Beta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge, LA to Ocean Springs, MS including Vermilion Bay, Lake Borgne, Lake Pontchartrain, and Lake Maurepas...1-3 ft Port Aransas, TX to Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge, LA including Copano Bay, Aransas Bay, San Antonio Bay, Matagorda Bay, Galveston Bay, Sabine Lake, and Calcasieu Lake... 2-4 ft Baffin Bay, TX to Port Aransas, TX including Corpus Christi Bay and Baffin Bay... 1-3 ft Mouth of the Rio Grande to Baffin Bay, TX...1-2 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring in the tropical storm warning area along the southwestern Louisiana coast and will spread westward to the warning areas in Texas late today through early Monday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the tropical storm watch area along the south Texas coast on Monday. RAINFALL: Through Thursday, Beta is expected to produce rainfall accumulations of 8 to 12 inches with isolated totals of 20 inches from the middle Texas coast to southern Louisiana, with 4 to 8 inches spreading northward into the lower Mississippi River Valley by mid-week. Flash and urban flooding is likely, as well as minor to isolated moderate river flooding. TORNADOES: A tornado or two could occur Monday near the middle-to-upper Texas coast or the southwestern Louisiana coast. SURF: Swells are increasing and reaching the coast of Texas and the Gulf Coast of Mexico, generated by a combination of Beta and a cold front entering the northern Gulf of Mexico. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Storm Beta Forecast Advisory Number 12
2020-09-20 16:56:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN SEP 20 2020 000 WTNT22 KNHC 201456 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM BETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL222020 1500 UTC SUN SEP 20 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED SOUTH OF BAFFIN BAY TEXAS. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PORT ARANSAS...TEXAS TO ROCKEFELLER WILDLIFE REFUGE...LOUISIANA...INCLUDING COPANO BAY...ARANSAS BAY...SAN ANTONIO BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...GALVESTON BAY...SABINE LAKE...AND LAKE CALCASIEU A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PORT ARANSAS TEXAS TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS TEXAS A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE... DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.2N 93.0W AT 20/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 80NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT.......170NE 30SE 40SW 140NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 0SE 180SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.2N 93.0W AT 20/1500Z AT 20/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.1N 92.8W FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 27.6N 93.9W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT...140NE 30SE 40SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 28.1N 95.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT...130NE 40SE 40SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 28.6N 95.8W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT...110NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 29.0N 96.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 40SE 40SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 29.6N 95.7W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 50SE 50SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 30.2N 94.7W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z 32.1N 92.1W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z 34.4N 89.4W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.2N 93.0W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 20/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/2100Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Hurricane Teddy Forecast Discussion Number 33
2020-09-20 16:55:58| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Sun Sep 20 2020 000 WTNT45 KNHC 201455 TCDAT5 Hurricane Teddy Discussion Number 33 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020 1100 AM AST Sun Sep 20 2020 The satellite signature of Teddy has degraded from an eye pattern overnight into a central dense overcast this morning. Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft data indicate that the hurricane has weakened, and the initial wind speed is set to 90 kt, perhaps generously. The aircraft data does still show that Teddy remains a large hurricane, with hurricane-force winds extending outward in the northeastward quadrant to about 70 n mi. While the forecast intensity does not change much over the next couple of days, the hurricane should undergo significant changes during that time. Teddy should not lose any more strength by late today due to favorable positioning with an approaching trough, and the gale-force winds should greatly expand due to this trough interaction. In 2 or 3 days, after the system occludes and becomes post-tropical, the cyclone should weaken because of a loss of extratropical forcing while over the cooler water south of Nova Scotia. Eventually Teddy will probably get absorbed by a larger extratropical low around day 5. Model guidance is fairly tightly packed around the official wind forecast, which leans on the global models given the substantial extratropical contributions, plus or minus 5 kt throughout the forecast period. The hurricane has resumed a northwestward motion or 320/8 kt. Teddy is likely to turn northward today and north-northeastward tomorrow due to the aforementioned trough. By early Tuesday, the cyclone should turn back to the north-northwest as it rotates around the same trough, then turn northeastward early Wednesday ahead of yet another trough moving into from eastern Canada. Although the forecast evolution is complex, model guidance is in remarkably good agreement, and no substantial changes were made to the previous forecast. Regardless of the details, every model has a rather large and strong post-tropical cyclone south of Nova Scotia in about 3 days. Key Messages: 1. The center of Teddy is forecast to move east of Bermuda on Monday. Tropical storm conditions are likely on the island beginning this evening and could continue into Monday evening. 2. Teddy is expected to transition to a powerful post-tropical cyclone as it moves near or over portions of Atlantic Canada early next week, where there is an increasing risk of direct impacts from wind, rain, and storm surge. Residents there should closely monitor the progress of Teddy and updates to the forecast. 3. Large swells produced by Teddy are expected to affect portions of the Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada during the next few days. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/1500Z 28.3N 62.8W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 21/0000Z 29.2N 63.4W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 21/1200Z 31.0N 62.9W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 22/0000Z 34.8N 62.1W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 22/1200Z 38.8N 63.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 60H 23/0000Z 41.7N 63.4W 75 KT 85 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 23/1200Z 44.5N 62.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 24/1200Z 53.0N 53.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 25/1200Z 60.5N 39.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Blake
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Hurricane Teddy Public Advisory Number 33
2020-09-20 16:52:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Sun Sep 20 2020 000 WTNT35 KNHC 201451 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Hurricane Teddy Advisory Number 33 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020 1100 AM AST Sun Sep 20 2020 ...TEDDY RESUMES A NORTHWESTWARD MOTION, TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXPECTED ON BERMUDA STARTING TONIGHT... ...RIP CURRENTS EXPECTED ALONG WESTERN ATLANTIC BEACHES FOR SEVERAL DAYS... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...28.3N 62.8W ABOUT 300 MI...485 KM SSE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...964 MB...28.47 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Bermuda A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area. Interests in Atlantic Canada should closely monitor the progress of Teddy. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Teddy was located near latitude 28.3 North, longitude 62.8 West. Teddy is moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A turn toward the north is expected tonight and then Teddy is forecast to continue generally northward for another couple days. On the forecast track, Teddy will approach Bermuda tonight, and the center should pass east of the island Monday morning. Teddy should be approaching Nova Scotia on Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected today. Teddy is expected to remain a large and powerful hurricane through Monday, then become a strong post-tropical cyclone on Tuesday. Teddy remains a large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 964 mb (28.47 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Teddy can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to affect Bermuda tonight and could continue into Monday night. SURF: Large swells generated by Teddy are affecting the Lesser Antilles, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada. These swells are likely to cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST. Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Blake
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Hurricane Teddy Wind Speed Probabilities Number 33
2020-09-20 16:52:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN SEP 20 2020 000 FONT15 KNHC 201451 PWSAT5 HURRICANE TEDDY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 33 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202020 1500 UTC SUN SEP 20 2020 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE TEDDY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 90 KTS...105 MPH...165 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) X(10) ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 21(30) X(30) ILE ST PIERRE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) ILE ST PIERRE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 28(40) X(40) BURGEO NFLD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) X(10) BURGEO NFLD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) PTX BASQUES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) 27(44) X(44) PTX BASQUES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 13(16) X(16) PTX BASQUES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 36(36) 14(50) X(50) EDDY POINT NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 6(18) X(18) EDDY POINT NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 36(36) 20(56) X(56) SYDNEY NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 9(19) X(19) SYDNEY NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 49(53) 6(59) X(59) SABLE ISLAND 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18) 3(21) X(21) SABLE ISLAND 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 54(56) 4(60) X(60) HALIFAX NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 26(26) 2(28) X(28) HALIFAX NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 1(12) X(12) YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 33(35) 1(36) X(36) YARMOUTH NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8) YARMOUTH NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) MONCTON NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18) 3(21) X(21) MONCTON NB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) MONCTON NB 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) ST JOHN NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 1(16) X(16) ST JOHN NB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) EASTPORT ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) 1(18) X(18) BAR HARBOR ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) AUGUSTA ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BERMUDA 34 14 38(52) 14(66) X(66) X(66) X(66) X(66) BERMUDA 50 X 6( 6) 6(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) BERMUDA 64 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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