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Tropical Storm Beta Forecast Discussion Number 9
2020-09-19 23:00:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2020 000 WTNT42 KNHC 192100 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Beta Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL222020 400 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2020 Satellite imagery indicates that Beta has a small area of convection over the low-level center, with a dry slot on the northeastern side separating that convection from a larger outer band. Satellite intensity estimates are generally in the 40-55 kt range and have changed little since the past advisory. In addition, a ship just north of the center just reported 47-kt winds and a pressure of 998.6 mb. Based on these data, the initial intensity remains 50 kt. Earlier scatterometer data showed a trough extending from near the center of Beta to just south of the mouth of the Mississippi River, which may be a result of the cyclone's circulation interacting with an old cold front over the northern Gulf. Beta has been nearly stationary since the last advisory, with the center perhaps making a small loop. The guidance is in good agreement that a slow westward to west-northwestward motion should start tonight as a mid-level ridge develops north of the cyclone. A slightly faster west-northwestward motion should then occur through 72 h, bringing the center of Beta near or over the Texas coast in about 60 h. After landfall, a mid-latitude trough moving through the central United States should cause Beta to recurve slowly to the northeast. Despite the current lack of movement, the latest track guidance is a little faster to bring the storm to the coast of Texas with the ECMWF forecasting landfall by 12Z Monday. The new forecast track is a little faster than the previous forecast, but is a little slower than the various consensus models. There remain a lot of uncertainties in the intensity forecast. First, the global models still suggest that the ongoing southwesterly shear may not subside much before landfall. Second, GOES-16 air mass imagery shows abundant upper-level dry air over the western Gulf of Mexico, including near the storm center. Third, surface observations show a drier low-level airmass in place over southeastern Texas, and some of this may be getting entrained into the storm. The intensity guidance has again trended downward, and several of the models now forecast Beta not to strengthen at all as it approaches Texas. Because the sea surface temperatures are warm and the shear is not prohibitively strong, the intensity forecast, while reduced from the earlier forecast, will show slow strengthening to a peak intensity of 60 kt before landfall. This forecast remains above the guidance, and additional downward adjustments may be needed tonight or on Sunday. While the chances that Beta will become a hurricane are decreasing, a Hurricane Warning could still be issued for portions of the Texas coast tonight depending on later intensity trends and forecasts. Key Messages: 1. The expected slow motion of Beta has the potential to produce a long duration rainfall event along the western Gulf Coast. The potentially prolonged period of rainfall could cause flash, urban, and river flooding, especially in coastal areas where tide levels are above normal. 2. There is the danger of life-threatening storm surge near times of high tide from Sunday through Tuesday along portions of the Texas coast within the storm surge warning areas. Residents in these areas should follow advice given by local officials. 3. Tropical storm force winds are expected to begin along portions of the northwestern Gulf Coast by Sunday night within the tropical storm warning area, with hurricane-force winds possible along portions of the Texas coast late Monday and Monday night, where a hurricane watch is in effect. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/2100Z 26.6N 92.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 20/0600Z 26.7N 93.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 20/1800Z 27.1N 94.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 21/0600Z 27.5N 95.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 21/1800Z 27.9N 96.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 60H 22/0600Z 28.3N 96.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 22/1800Z 28.8N 96.4W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 96H 23/1800Z 29.5N 95.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 120H 24/1800Z 31.0N 93.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Storm Beta Public Advisory Number 9
2020-09-19 23:00:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2020 000 WTNT32 KNHC 192100 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Beta Advisory Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL222020 400 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2020 ...BETA NOW STATIONARY OVER THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO... ...STORM SURGE WARNING ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS COAST... SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...26.6N 92.4W ABOUT 320 MI...510 KM ESE OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS ABOUT 245 MI...395 KM SSE OF LAKE CHARLES LOUISIANA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Storm Surge Warning is now in effect for Port Aransas, Texas to High Island, Texas including Copano Bay, Aransas Bay, San Antonio Bay, Matagorda Bay, and Galveston Bay. A Storm Surge Watch has been discontinued for Port Mansfield, Texas to Baffin Bay, Texas. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for * Port Aransas, Texas to High Island, Texas including Copano Bay, Aransas Bay, San Antonio Bay, Matagorda Bay, and Galveston Bay A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Baffin Bay, Texas to Port Aransas, Texas including Baffin Bay and Corpus Christi Bay * High Island, Texas to Cameron, Louisiana including Sabine Lake and Lake Calcasieu A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Port Aransas Texas to High Island Texas A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Port Aransas Texas to Intracoastal City Louisiana A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * South of Port Aransas Texas to the Mouth of the Rio Grande * East of Intracoastal City Louisiana to Morgan City Louisiana A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. A Hurricane Warning may be required for portions of the Texas coast tonight. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Beta was located near latitude 26.6 North, longitude 92.4 West. Beta has been nearly stationary for the past several hours. A westward drift is expected tonight, followed by a slow motion toward the west-northwest that should continue through late Monday. On the forecast track, the center of Beta will slowly approach the Texas coast Sunday and Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow strengthening is expected during the next couple of days, and Beta could be near hurricane strength as it approaches the Texas coast. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km) from the center, mainly in the northern semicircle. A ship near the center of Beta recently reported winds of 54 mph (87 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb (29.36 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Beta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Baffin Bay, TX to Cameron, LA including Baffin Bay, Corpus Christi Bay, Copano Bay, Aransas Bay, Matagorda Bay, Galveston Bay, Sabine Lake, Calcasieu Lake, San Antonio Bay...2-4 ft Cameron, LA to Ocean Springs, MS including Vermilion Bay...1-3 ft Lake Borgne, Lake Pontchartrain, and Lake Maurepas...1-3 ft Mouth of the Rio Grande to Baffin Bay, TX...1-2 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning area by Sunday night. Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area by late Monday or Monday night. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the tropical storm watch area along the southwestern Louisiana coast as early as tonight, and are possible within the tropical storm watch area along the south Texas coast Sunday night or Monday. RAINFALL: Beta has the potential to produce a long duration rainfall event along the western Gulf Coast. Today through Tuesday, Beta is expected to produce rainfall accumulations of 8 to 12 inches with isolated totals of 20 inches beginning Saturday across southern Louisiana and spreading into coastal Texas on Sunday. Flash and urban flooding is likely as well as minor river flooding. Additional heavy rainfall amounts across the western Gulf Coast are possible through late week as Beta is expected to move slowly near the Texas coast. SURF: Swells are increasing and reaching the coast of Texas and the Gulf Coast of Mexico, generated by a combination of Beta and a cold front entering the northern Gulf of Mexico. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Storm Beta Wind Speed Probabilities Number 9
2020-09-19 23:00:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT SEP 19 2020 000 FONT12 KNHC 192100 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM BETA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL222020 2100 UTC SAT SEP 19 2020 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BETA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 92.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) MOBILE AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) GULFPORT MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) STENNIS MS 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) BURAS LA 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 2( 4) 4( 8) GFMX 280N 890W 34 2 2( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) 3( 9) 3(12) JACKSON MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) 3( 6) 4(10) GFMX 280N 910W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) GFMX 280N 910W 50 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) BATON ROUGE LA 34 X 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) 4( 9) 5(14) MORGAN CITY LA 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) 2( 6) 4(10) 7(17) ALEXANDRIA LA 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 3( 6) 5(11) 5(16) LAFAYETTE LA 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) 3( 8) 5(13) 7(20) LAFAYETTE LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) NEW IBERIA LA 34 1 1( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) 3( 8) 5(13) 7(20) NEW IBERIA LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) GFMX 280N 930W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) GFMX 280N 930W 50 6 10(16) 1(17) 1(18) 1(19) 2(21) 2(23) GFMX 280N 930W 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) SHREVEPORT LA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 3( 7) 4(11) FORT POLK LA 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) 6(11) 6(17) 5(22) FORT POLK LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) LAKE CHARLES 34 1 1( 2) 2( 4) 4( 8) 6(14) 8(22) 6(28) LAKE CHARLES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) CAMERON LA 34 7 14(21) 8(29) 3(32) 6(38) 8(46) 4(50) CAMERON LA 50 X 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 3( 6) 4(10) CAMERON LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) JASPER TX 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) 3( 6) 9(15) 7(22) 4(26) JASPER TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) KOUNTZE TX 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 4( 9) 10(19) 9(28) 5(33) KOUNTZE TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) PORT ARTHUR TX 34 1 3( 4) 4( 8) 4(12) 10(22) 8(30) 6(36) PORT ARTHUR TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) PORT ARTHUR TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) GALVESTON TX 34 7 20(27) 17(44) 10(54) 5(59) 4(63) 2(65) GALVESTON TX 50 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 4( 9) 4(13) 5(18) 2(20) GALVESTON TX 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) HOUSTON TX 34 1 3( 4) 8(12) 9(21) 12(33) 8(41) 3(44) HOUSTON TX 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 4( 6) 4(10) X(10) HOUSTON TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) AUSTIN TX 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 4( 7) 12(19) 6(25) 1(26) AUSTIN TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) SAN ANTONIO TX 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 5( 7) 10(17) 5(22) 1(23) SAN ANTONIO TX 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) FREEPORT TX 34 1 11(12) 20(32) 13(45) 8(53) 4(57) 1(58) FREEPORT TX 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 4(11) 3(14) 2(16) FREEPORT TX 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) GFMX 280N 950W 34 24 35(59) 19(78) 5(83) 1(84) 1(85) 1(86) GFMX 280N 950W 50 1 11(12) 23(35) 7(42) 2(44) 2(46) 1(47) GFMX 280N 950W 64 X 1( 1) 6( 7) 3(10) 2(12) 1(13) 1(14) HIGH ISLAND TX 34 1 7( 8) 9(17) 6(23) 9(32) 8(40) 4(44) HIGH ISLAND TX 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 3( 7) 2( 9) HIGH ISLAND TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) MATAGORDA TX 34 5 20(25) 25(50) 15(65) 6(71) 2(73) 1(74) MATAGORDA TX 50 X 1( 1) 8( 9) 14(23) 6(29) 2(31) 2(33) MATAGORDA TX 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) PORT O CONNOR 34 3 16(19) 27(46) 17(63) 7(70) 2(72) 1(73) PORT O CONNOR 50 X 1( 1) 8( 9) 16(25) 7(32) 2(34) 1(35) PORT O CONNOR 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 4( 9) X( 9) 1(10) ROCKPORT TX 34 X 3( 3) 14(17) 18(35) 12(47) 5(52) 1(53) ROCKPORT TX 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 7(14) 2(16) 1(17) ROCKPORT TX 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CORPUS CHRISTI 34 X 2( 2) 7( 9) 15(24) 11(35) 6(41) 1(42) CORPUS CHRISTI 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 6( 9) 1(10) 1(11) CORPUS CHRISTI 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) GFMX 270N 960W 34 6 19(25) 21(46) 9(55) 10(65) 2(67) 1(68) GFMX 270N 960W 50 X 2( 2) 11(13) 8(21) 7(28) 3(31) 1(32) GFMX 270N 960W 64 X X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 3( 9) 1(10) X(10) MCALLEN TX 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 6(10) 4(14) X(14) HARLINGEN TX 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 4( 6) 9(15) 4(19) X(19) HARLINGEN TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) BROWNSVILLE TX 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 4( 6) 7(13) 4(17) X(17) GFMX 250N 960W 34 2 3( 5) 4( 9) 5(14) 7(21) 4(25) 1(26) GFMX 250N 960W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) LA PESCA MX 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) PENSACOLA NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) KEESLER AB 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) 4( 7) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
Tropical Storm Beta Forecast Advisory Number 9
2020-09-19 22:59:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT SEP 19 2020 000 WTNT22 KNHC 192059 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM BETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL222020 2100 UTC SAT SEP 19 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... A STORM SURGE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR PORT ARANSAS TEXAS TO HIGH ISLAND TEXAS INCLUDING COPANO BAY...ARANSAS BAY...SAN ANTONIO BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...AND GALVESTON BAY. A STORM SURGE WATCH HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED FOR PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS TO BAFFIN BAY TEXAS. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR * PORT ARANSAS TEXAS TO HIGH ISLAND TEXAS INCLUDING COPANO BAY...ARANSAS BAY...SAN ANTONIO BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...AND GALVESTON BAY A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BAFFIN BAY TEXAS TO PORT ARANSAS TEXAS INCLUDING BAFFIN BAY AND CORPUS CHRISTI BAY * HIGH ISLAND TEXAS TO CAMERON LOUISIANA INCLUDING SABINE LAKE AND LAKE CALCASIEU A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PORT ARANSAS TEXAS TO HIGH ISLAND TEXAS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PORT ARANSAS TEXAS TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SOUTH OF PORT ARANSAS TEXAS TO THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE * EAST OF INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS. A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE- THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. A HURRICANE WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS COAST TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.6N 92.4W AT 19/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 0 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 60NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. 34 KT.......150NE 40SE 40SW 140NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 0SE 120SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.6N 92.4W AT 19/2100Z AT 19/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.5N 92.5W FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 26.7N 93.1W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. 34 KT...150NE 60SE 40SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 27.1N 94.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 30SE 0SW 60NW. 34 KT...150NE 60SE 40SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 27.5N 95.1W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW. 34 KT...150NE 80SE 60SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 27.9N 96.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...150NE 80SE 80SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 28.3N 96.4W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...140NE 80SE 80SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 28.8N 96.4W...INLAND MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 80SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 23/1800Z 29.5N 95.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 24/1800Z 31.0N 93.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.6N 92.4W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 20/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Hurricane Teddy Forecast Advisory Number 30
2020-09-19 22:34:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT SEP 19 2020 000 WTNT25 KNHC 192034 TCMAT5 HURRICANE TEDDY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 30 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202020 2100 UTC SAT SEP 19 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BERMUDA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.7N 60.2W AT 19/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 958 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT. 64 KT....... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT.......130NE 90SE 80SW 90NW. 34 KT.......220NE 200SE 140SW 150NW. 12 FT SEAS..450NE 270SE 360SW 450NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.7N 60.2W AT 19/2100Z AT 19/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.3N 59.8W FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 27.9N 61.6W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT...130NE 90SE 80SW 90NW. 34 KT...220NE 200SE 140SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 29.1N 62.7W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT...130NE 90SE 80SW 90NW. 34 KT...220NE 200SE 140SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 30.7N 62.7W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT...130NE 110SE 80SW 90NW. 34 KT...240NE 200SE 150SW 210NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 33.6N 61.8W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT...130NE 130SE 80SW 110NW. 34 KT...320NE 230SE 240SW 290NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 38.3N 61.9W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT...170NE 130SE 100SW 150NW. 34 KT...350NE 330SE 270SW 320NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 41.9N 62.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT...150NE 120SE 100SW 130NW. 34 KT...350NE 310SE 250SW 270NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 23/1800Z 47.7N 58.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 24/1800Z 55.5N 45.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.7N 60.2W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 20/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0300Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO
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