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Tropical Storm Wilfred Forecast Discussion Number 6
2020-09-19 22:33:11| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Sat Sep 19 2020 000 WTNT43 KNHC 192033 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Wilfred Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL232020 500 PM AST Sat Sep 19 2020 A small low-level swirl that is apparently Wilfred's circulation center was noted in late afternoon visible imagery. The coldest cloud tops are in a small area of bursting convection to the northeast of the center with a ragged convective band noted to the south and southwest. The latest objective and subjective satellite intensity estimates remain 35 kt, and that will be the intensity for this advisory, but could be a bit generous. Increasing westerly shear and a drying airmass along the forecast track should result in weakening within 36 to 48 hours, and global models show the cyclone dissipating by 60 h. However, given the small size of the system, it wouldn't be surprising if the cyclone weakened or dissipated sooner than shown here. The initial motion estimate is 290/12. Wilfred should continue west-northwestward for the next 24 to 36 hours before turning westward in the low-level flow prior to dissipation. The new NHC track forecast is close to the previous one and lies near the consensus aids and the middle of the guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/2100Z 14.0N 39.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 20/0600Z 14.8N 41.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 20/1800Z 15.6N 44.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 21/0600Z 16.0N 46.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 21/1800Z 16.2N 48.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 22/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brennan
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Tropical Storm Wilfred Wind Speed Probabilities Number 6
2020-09-19 22:32:41| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT SEP 19 2020 000 FONT13 KNHC 192032 PWSAT3 TROPICAL STORM WILFRED WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL232020 2100 UTC SAT SEP 19 2020 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM WILFRED WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 39.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
Tropical Storm Wilfred Public Advisory Number 6
2020-09-19 22:32:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Sat Sep 19 2020 000 WTNT33 KNHC 192032 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Wilfred Advisory Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL232020 500 PM AST Sat Sep 19 2020 ...TINY WILFRED MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.0N 39.2W ABOUT 1025 MI...1645 KM W OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS ABOUT 1480 MI...2380 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Wilfred was located near latitude 14.0 North, longitude 39.2 West. Wilfred is moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through Sunday, followed by a westward motion late Sunday and Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected during the next day or so. Weakening is expected on Monday, and Wilfred is expected to dissipate by Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Brennan
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Tropical Storm Wilfred Forecast Advisory Number 6
2020-09-19 22:32:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT SEP 19 2020 000 WTNT23 KNHC 192032 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM WILFRED FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL232020 2100 UTC SAT SEP 19 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 39.2W AT 19/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 35 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 39.2W AT 19/2100Z AT 19/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 38.5W FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 14.8N 41.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 15.6N 44.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 16.0N 46.6W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 16.2N 48.6W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.0N 39.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
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Hurricane Teddy Public Advisory Number 29A
2020-09-19 19:53:04| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 200 PM AST Sat Sep 19 2020 000 WTNT35 KNHC 191752 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Hurricane Teddy Intermediate Advisory Number 29A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020 200 PM AST Sat Sep 19 2020 ...MAJOR HURRICANE TEDDY APPROACHING THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS... ...LARGE SWELLS THAT CAN CAUSE RIP CURRENTS WILL AFFECT MOST WESTERN ATLANTIC COASTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND... SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...26.3N 59.9W ABOUT 515 MI...825 KM SE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...958 MB...28.29 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Bermuda A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area, generally within 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Teddy was located near latitude 26.3 North, longitude 59.9 West. Teddy is moving toward the northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue through tonight. A turn toward the north or north-northeast is expected on Sunday, followed by a northward motion into early next week. On the forecast track, Teddy will approach Bermuda on Sunday and the center will pass just east of the island late Sunday and early Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 120 mph (195 km/h) with higher gusts. Teddy is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some slow weakening is expected over the next couple of days. A more pronounced decrease in Teddy's maximum winds is forecast to begin early next week. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km). The wind field of the hurricane is forecast to increase substantially starting on Sunday night. The estimated minimum central pressure is 958 mb (28.29 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Teddy can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to affect Bermuda beginning Sunday afternoon or evening and could linger through most of the day Monday. SURF: Large swells generated by Teddy are affecting the Lesser Antilles, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, and the east coast of the United States. Swells from Teddy should reach Atlantic Canada by early Sunday. These swells are likely to cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Latto
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