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Tropical Depression Wilfred Forecast Discussion Number 9
2020-09-20 16:50:28| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Sun Sep 20 2020 000 WTNT43 KNHC 201450 TCDAT3 Tropical Depression Wilfred Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL232020 1100 AM AST Sun Sep 20 2020 First-light visible imagery of Wilfred shows a well-defined center south of widespread - but not very well banded - deep convection. The improved positioning this morning allows for a more confident assessment of its movement toward the west-northwest at 17 kt. As the system slowly winds down, it will be increasingly steered by the low-level flow indicating a slower movement toward the west or west-northwest until dissipation. The new track forecast is slightly farther west due to the faster initial motion within 36 hours, then slightly farther east afterward based upon the TVCN track consensus approach. While the ASCAT scatterometer passes this morning missed Wilfred's center, ASCAT-B observed 30 kt peak winds in its northeastern quadrant. This value is used as the initial intensity, consistent with both SAB and TAFB's Dvorak classifications. The combination of outflow from Hurricane Teddy as well as winds on the southern side of an impinging upper-level trough are causing about 20 kt vertical shear from the west-northwest. This shear should increase over the next couple of days as Wilfred gets into closer proximity with the trough. The strong shear and dry mid-level humidities should continue to cause a reduction of the deep convection and lead to the system becoming a remnant low in a couple of days followed within another day or so by dissipation. All statistical and dynamical intensity guidance is in agreement with this scenario. Alternatively, Wilfred could become a remnant low sooner, if the convection ceases later today or Monday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/1500Z 15.7N 44.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 21/0000Z 16.2N 46.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 21/1200Z 16.5N 48.4W 25 KT 30 MPH 36H 22/0000Z 16.8N 50.0W 25 KT 30 MPH 48H 22/1200Z 17.0N 51.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 23/0000Z 17.2N 52.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 23/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Landsea
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Hurricane Teddy Forecast Advisory Number 33
2020-09-20 16:50:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN SEP 20 2020 000 WTNT25 KNHC 201449 TCMAT5 HURRICANE TEDDY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 33 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202020 1500 UTC SUN SEP 20 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BERMUDA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. INTERESTS IN ATLANTIC CANANDA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF TEDDY. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.3N 62.8W AT 20/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 964 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT. 64 KT....... 70NE 60SE 30SW 60NW. 50 KT.......120NE 100SE 80SW 100NW. 34 KT.......180NE 180SE 180SW 180NW. 12 FT SEAS..510NE 270SE 420SW 450NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.3N 62.8W AT 20/1500Z AT 20/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.0N 62.6W FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 29.2N 63.4W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. 50 KT...100NE 90SE 80SW 80NW. 34 KT...180NE 180SE 170SW 210NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 31.0N 62.9W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT...110NE 110SE 70SW 80NW. 34 KT...280NE 200SE 200SW 300NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 34.8N 62.1W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 80NE 70SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT...180NE 130SE 100SW 130NW. 34 KT...350NE 270SE 290SW 310NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 38.8N 63.0W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 90NW. 50 KT...200NE 120SE 120SW 180NW. 34 KT...350NE 330SE 290SW 280NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 41.7N 63.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT...110NE 100SE 80SW 100NW. 34 KT...310NE 280SE 260SW 230NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 44.5N 62.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 50SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT...190NE 250SE 200SW 170NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z 53.0N 53.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z 60.5N 39.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.3N 62.8W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 20/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Tropical Depression Wilfred Wind Speed Probabilities Number 9
2020-09-20 16:45:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN SEP 20 2020 000 FONT13 KNHC 201445 PWSAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION WILFRED WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL232020 1500 UTC SUN SEP 20 2020 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION WILFRED WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 44.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER LANDSEA
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Tropical Depression Wilfred Public Advisory Number 9
2020-09-20 16:45:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Sun Sep 20 2020 000 WTNT33 KNHC 201445 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Wilfred Advisory Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL232020 1100 AM AST Sun Sep 20 2020 ...WILFRED WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.7N 44.2W ABOUT 1340 MI...2160 KM W OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS ABOUT 1135 MI...1830 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Wilfred was located near latitude 15.7 North, longitude 44.2 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 20 mph (31 km/h). Wilfred should slow its forward speed while heading toward the west or west-northwestward for the next few days until dissipation. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Wilfred should weaken to a remnant low within a couple days. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Landsea
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Tropical Depression Wilfred Forecast Advisory Number 9
2020-09-20 16:44:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN SEP 20 2020 000 WTNT23 KNHC 201444 TCMAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION WILFRED FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL232020 1500 UTC SUN SEP 20 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 44.2W AT 20/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 17 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 44.2W AT 20/1500Z AT 20/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 43.5W FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 16.2N 46.3W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 16.5N 48.4W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 16.8N 50.0W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 17.0N 51.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 17.2N 52.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.7N 44.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/2100Z $$ FORECASTER LANDSEA
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