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Tropical Storm Beta Public Advisory Number 8A
2020-09-19 19:52:04| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 100 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2020 000 WTNT32 KNHC 191751 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Beta Intermediate Advisory Number 8A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL222020 100 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2020 ...BETA MOVING SLOWLY OVER THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...26.6N 92.7W ABOUT 305 MI...495 KM ESE OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS ABOUT 245 MI...395 KM S OF LAKE CHARLES LOUISIANA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...3 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Port Mansfield, TX to Cameron, LA including Baffin Bay, Corpus Christi Bay, Copano Bay, Aransas Bay, San Antonio Bay, Matagorda Bay, Galveston Bay, Sabine Lake and Calcasieu Lake A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Port Aransas Texas to High Island Texas A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Port Aransas Texas to Intracoastal City Louisiana A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * South of Port Aransas Texas to the Mouth of the Rio Grande * East of Intracoastal City Louisiana to Morgan City Louisiana A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. A Hurricane Warning may be required for portions of the Texas coast later today or tonight. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Beta was located near latitude 26.6 North, longitude 92.7 West. Beta is moving toward the west near 2 mph (3 km/h), and a slow motion toward the west should continue into Sunday. A slow northwestward motion is forecast to begin late Sunday or Sunday night and continue through late Monday. On the forecast track, the center of Beta will slowly approach the Texas coast into early next week. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected today. After that, slow strengthening is forecast, and Beta is expected to be at or near hurricane strength Sunday night or Monday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb (29.36 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Beta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Port Mansfield, TX to Cameron, LA including Baffin Bay, Corpus Christi Bay, Copano Bay, Aransas Bay, San Antonio Bay, Matagorda Bay, Galveston Bay, Sabine Lake, and Calcasieu Lake...2-4 ft Mouth of the Rio Grande, TX to Port Mansfield, TX...1-3 ft Cameron, LA to Ocean Springs, MS including Vermilion Bay...1-3 ft Lake Maurepas, Lake Pontchartrain, and Lake Borgne...1-3 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning area by late Sunday or Sunday night. Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area by late Monday or Monday night. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the tropical storm watch area along the southwestern Louisiana coast as early as tonight, and are possible within the tropical storm watch area along the south Texas coast Sunday night. RAINFALL: Beta has the potential to produce a long-lived rainfall event along the western Gulf Coast. Today through Tuesday, Beta is expected to produce rainfall accumulations of 3 to 5 inches with isolated totals of 10 inches beginning Saturday across southern Louisiana and spreading into coastal Texas on Sunday. Flash and urban flooding is likely as well as minor river flooding. Additional heavy rainfall amounts across the western Gulf Coast are possible through late week as Beta is expected to move slowly near the Texas coast. SURF: Swells are expected to increase and reach the coast of Texas and the Gulf Coast of Mexico later today, generated by a combination of Beta and a cold front entering the northern Gulf of Mexico. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Storm Beta Wind Speed Probabilities Number 8
2020-09-19 17:42:04| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT SEP 19 2020 000 FONT12 KNHC 191541 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM BETA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL222020 1500 UTC SAT SEP 19 2020 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BETA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 92.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) MOBILE AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) GULFPORT MS 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 3( 4) 4( 8) STENNIS MS 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 3( 5) 5(10) BURAS LA 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 3( 6) 5(11) GFMX 280N 890W 34 2 2( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) 3(10) 4(14) JACKSON MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) 4( 8) 6(14) GFMX 280N 910W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) GFMX 280N 910W 50 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) GFMX 280N 910W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) BATON ROUGE LA 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 2( 6) 6(12) 6(18) BATON ROUGE LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) MORGAN CITY LA 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) 3( 8) 5(13) 7(20) MORGAN CITY LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) ALEXANDRIA LA 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 5( 9) 8(17) 5(22) ALEXANDRIA LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) LAFAYETTE LA 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) 3( 6) 5(11) 7(18) 7(25) LAFAYETTE LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) NEW IBERIA LA 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) 5(11) 7(18) 7(25) NEW IBERIA LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) GFMX 280N 930W 34 78 11(89) 2(91) 1(92) 1(93) X(93) 1(94) GFMX 280N 930W 50 10 11(21) 4(25) 1(26) 1(27) 3(30) 2(32) GFMX 280N 930W 64 X 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) SHREVEPORT LA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) 7(12) 4(16) FORT POLK LA 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) 7(13) 9(22) 5(27) FORT POLK LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) LAKE CHARLES 34 X 2( 2) 4( 6) 3( 9) 9(18) 10(28) 6(34) LAKE CHARLES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 3( 8) LAKE CHARLES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) CAMERON LA 34 4 13(17) 14(31) 6(37) 8(45) 7(52) 5(57) CAMERON LA 50 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 3( 6) 5(11) 5(16) CAMERON LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) JASPER TX 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 4( 7) 10(17) 10(27) 5(32) JASPER TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 1( 7) JASPER TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) KOUNTZE TX 34 X 2( 2) 4( 6) 6(12) 13(25) 10(35) 5(40) KOUNTZE TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) 2(10) KOUNTZE TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) PORT ARTHUR TX 34 X 3( 3) 6( 9) 6(15) 12(27) 12(39) 5(44) PORT ARTHUR TX 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 4( 7) 3(10) PORT ARTHUR TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) GALVESTON TX 34 3 18(21) 27(48) 11(59) 7(66) 4(70) 2(72) GALVESTON TX 50 X 1( 1) 6( 7) 6(13) 6(19) 5(24) 3(27) GALVESTON TX 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 4( 8) 1( 9) HOUSTON TX 34 X 2( 2) 9(11) 13(24) 15(39) 9(48) 3(51) HOUSTON TX 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 6( 9) 5(14) 2(16) HOUSTON TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) AUSTIN TX 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 4( 6) 15(21) 7(28) 1(29) AUSTIN TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) SAN ANTONIO TX 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 12(18) 7(25) 1(26) SAN ANTONIO TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) FREEPORT TX 34 X 5( 5) 25(30) 17(47) 11(58) 4(62) 2(64) FREEPORT TX 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 7(11) 7(18) 4(22) 2(24) FREEPORT TX 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) GFMX 280N 950W 34 9 40(49) 28(77) 6(83) 4(87) 1(88) 1(89) GFMX 280N 950W 50 1 9(10) 28(38) 10(48) 5(53) 1(54) 2(56) GFMX 280N 950W 64 X 1( 1) 8( 9) 6(15) 4(19) X(19) 2(21) HIGH ISLAND TX 34 1 3( 4) 13(17) 9(26) 11(37) 9(46) 4(50) HIGH ISLAND TX 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 4( 7) 5(12) 3(15) HIGH ISLAND TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) MATAGORDA TX 34 2 14(16) 32(48) 17(65) 8(73) 3(76) 2(78) MATAGORDA TX 50 X 1( 1) 9(10) 16(26) 9(35) 3(38) 2(40) MATAGORDA TX 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 5(12) 2(14) X(14) PORT O CONNOR 34 1 11(12) 31(43) 19(62) 10(72) 4(76) 2(78) PORT O CONNOR 50 X 1( 1) 8( 9) 16(25) 11(36) 4(40) 1(41) PORT O CONNOR 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 6(12) 1(13) 1(14) ROCKPORT TX 34 X 2( 2) 11(13) 17(30) 17(47) 8(55) 1(56) ROCKPORT TX 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 9(15) 4(19) X(19) ROCKPORT TX 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) CORPUS CHRISTI 34 X 1( 1) 6( 7) 12(19) 18(37) 8(45) 1(46) CORPUS CHRISTI 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) 3(13) 1(14) CORPUS CHRISTI 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) GFMX 270N 960W 34 2 17(19) 28(47) 12(59) 11(70) 3(73) 1(74) GFMX 270N 960W 50 X 2( 2) 10(12) 11(23) 9(32) 4(36) 1(37) GFMX 270N 960W 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 6(12) 1(13) 1(14) MCALLEN TX 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) 7(12) 6(18) 1(19) MCALLEN TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) HARLINGEN TX 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) 11(17) 6(23) 1(24) HARLINGEN TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) BROWNSVILLE TX 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) 10(16) 6(22) X(22) BROWNSVILLE TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) GFMX 250N 960W 34 1 3( 4) 5( 9) 6(15) 9(24) 4(28) 1(29) GFMX 250N 960W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) LA PESCA MX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) PENSACOLA NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) KEESLER AB 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 6(10) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
Tropical Storm Beta Forecast Discussion Number 8
2020-09-19 17:38:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Sat Sep 19 2020 000 WTNT42 KNHC 191538 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Beta Discussion Number 8...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL222020 1000 AM CDT Sat Sep 19 2020 Corrected 96 and 120 h intensities Morning visible imagery indicates that Beta has become significantly sheared, with the low-level center mostly exposed well to the southwest of the main convective area. A new convective band is currently forming near the center over the northwestern quadrant. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft reported pressures near 994-995 mb, along with flight-level and SFMR winds that justify keeping the initial intensity at 50 kt. The storm appears to be starting its westward turn, and the initial motion is now 315/3. The mid- to upper-level trough over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico is lifting out, with a mid-level ridge building to the north of Beta. This should cause the storm to turn more westward during the next 6-12 h. After that, a slow west- northwestward to northwestward motion should develop, with the center now forecast to be near or over the middle Texas coast in about 72 h. Beyond 72 h, another mid-latitude trough moving through the central United States should cause Beta to recurve slowly to the northeast. The new NHC forecast is shifted a little to the west and now explicitly shows landfall on the Texas coast in about 72 h. This new forecast is a little to the north of the consensus models through 72 h and close to them after that time. There are lots of uncertainties in the intensity forecast. First, the global models suggest that the ongoing southwesterly shear may not subside that much even though the first trough is lifting out. Second, GOES-16 air mass imagery shows abundant upper-level dry air over the western Gulf of Mexico, including near the storm center. Third, surface observations show a drier low-level airmass in place over southeastern Texas, and some of this may get entrained into the storm. The intensity guidance has trended downward to the point where none of the models are currently forecasting Beta to become a hurricane. Based on this and the current storm structure, the intensity forecast has been adjusted to show little change in strength today, followed by slow strengthening to a hurricane by 48-60 h. However, this forecast is well above the guidance, and additional downward adjustments may be needed later today. A Tropical Storm Warning is being issued for parts of the Texas and Louisiana coasts at this time. A Hurricane Warning could still be issued later today or tonight depending on later intensity forecasts. Key Messages: 1. The expected slow motion of Beta has the potential to produce a long duration rainfall event along the western Gulf Coast. The potentially prolonged period of rainfall could cause flash, urban, and river flooding, especially where tide levels are above normal. 2. Life-threatening storm surge and hurricane-force winds are possible along portions of the northwestern Gulf Coast, with tropical storm conditions expected by late this weekend. Storm Surge and Hurricane watches and Tropical Storm warnings are in effect, and residents in these areas should ensure they have their hurricane plan in place and follow advice given by local officials. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/1500Z 26.6N 92.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 20/0000Z 26.9N 93.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 20/1200Z 27.1N 93.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 21/0000Z 27.5N 94.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 21/1200Z 27.8N 95.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 60H 22/0000Z 28.2N 96.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 22/1200Z 28.6N 96.2W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND 96H 23/1200Z 29.5N 95.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 120H 24/1200Z 30.5N 93.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Storm Beta Forecast Advisory Number 8
2020-09-19 17:37:31| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT SEP 19 2020 000 WTNT22 KNHC 191537 CCA TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM BETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8...CORRECTED NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL222020 1500 UTC SAT SEP 19 2020 CORRECTED 96 AND 120 H INTENSITIES CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM PORT ARANSAS...TEXAS TO INTRACOASTAL CITY...LOUISIANA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PORT MANSFIELD...TX TO CAMERON...LA INCLUDING BAFFIN BAY...CORPUS CHRISTI BAY...COPANO BAY...ARANSAS BAY...SAN ANTONIO BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...GALVESTON BAY...SABINE LAKE AND CALCASIEU LAKE A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PORT ARANSAS TEXAS TO HIGH ISLAND TEXAS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PORT ARANSAS TEXAS TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SOUTH OF PORT ARANSAS TEXAS TO THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE * EAST OF INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE- THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. A HURRICANE WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS COAST LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.6N 92.6W AT 19/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 60NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. 34 KT.......150NE 40SE 40SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 0SE 30SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.6N 92.6W AT 19/1500Z AT 19/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.5N 92.4W FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 26.9N 93.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. 34 KT...150NE 60SE 40SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 27.1N 93.8W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 30SE 0SW 60NW. 34 KT...150NE 60SE 40SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 27.5N 94.8W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...150NE 80SE 60SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 27.8N 95.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 25SE 25SW 30NW. 50 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...150NE 80SE 80SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 28.2N 96.2W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...140NE 80SE 80SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 28.6N 96.2W...INLAND MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 80SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z 29.5N 95.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z 30.5N 93.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.6N 92.6W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 19/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Tropical Storm Wilfred Public Advisory Number 5
2020-09-19 17:05:01| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Sat Sep 19 2020 000 WTNT33 KNHC 191504 CCA TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Wilfred Advisory Number 5...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL232020 1100 AM AST Sat Sep 19 2020 Corrected headline ...WILFRED MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.4N 38.1W ABOUT 960 MI...1540 KM W OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS ABOUT 1555 MI...2505 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Wilfred was located near latitude 13.4 North, longitude 38.1 West. Wilfred is moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue for the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in intensity is expected for the next day or so, followed by gradual weakening on Monday. Wilfred is expected to become a remnant low by Monday night and dissipate on Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Brennan
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