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Tropical Depression Twenty Forecast Discussion Number 2
2020-09-13 04:47:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Sat Sep 12 2020 000 WTNT45 KNHC 130247 TCDAT5 Tropical Depression Twenty Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020 1100 PM AST Sat Sep 12 2020 The depression is poorly organized at this time. A large convective band wraps around the northern and western portions of the cyclone, but its center of circulation is exposed and appears to have become somewhat elongated. Recent ASCAT data and the latest TAFB Dvorak analysis indicate that the maximum winds remain near 30 kt. It will take some time for the depression to get better organized, and only slight strengthening is anticipated during the next 24 h. After that time, the cyclone's environment is expected to support intensification, and the intensity guidance is quite aggressive. While the exact timing is somewhat uncertain, it is probable that the system will become a hurricane early next week. The new NHC intensity forecast has been adjusted higher than the previous advisory beyond 48 h, but it is below or near the model consensus at all times. Little change was made to the NHC track forecast. The depression appears to be moving generally west-northwestward near 9 kt. In general, the system should continue west-northwestward for the next couple of days, with some slight fluctuations in its track possible tonight and tomorrow as the center consolidates. A weakness in the subtropical ridge is expected to develop by the middle of next week that could steer the cyclone more toward the northwest. The guidance is in very good agreement on this general scenario, though confidence in the forecast will be somewhat low until the system becomes a little better organized and strengthens. The official forecast is based primarily on the HCCA and TVCA consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/0300Z 11.9N 34.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 13/1200Z 12.3N 35.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 14/0000Z 12.9N 37.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 14/1200Z 13.5N 40.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 15/0000Z 14.1N 42.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 60H 15/1200Z 14.8N 44.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 16/0000Z 15.9N 46.2W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 17/0000Z 18.5N 49.0W 90 KT 105 MPH 120H 18/0000Z 21.5N 51.0W 90 KT 105 MPH $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Tropical Depression Twenty Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2
2020-09-13 04:47:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN SEP 13 2020 000 FONT15 KNHC 130247 PWSAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202020 0300 UTC SUN SEP 13 2020 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 34.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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Tropical Depression Twenty Forecast Advisory Number 2
2020-09-13 04:47:01| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN SEP 13 2020 000 WTNT25 KNHC 130246 TCMAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202020 0300 UTC SUN SEP 13 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.9N 34.6W AT 13/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.9N 34.6W AT 13/0300Z AT 13/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.7N 34.2W FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 12.3N 35.9W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 12.9N 37.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 80SE 0SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 13.5N 40.1W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 40SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 14.1N 42.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 50SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 14.8N 44.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 50SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 15.9N 46.2W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...130NE 110SE 70SW 130NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 17/0000Z 18.5N 49.0W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 18/0000Z 21.5N 51.0W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.9N 34.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/0900Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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Hurricane Paulette Forecast Discussion Number 25
2020-09-13 04:40:13| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Sat Sep 12 2020 000 WTNT42 KNHC 130240 TCDAT2 Hurricane Paulette Discussion Number 25 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020 1100 PM AST Sat Sep 12 2020 An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft made multiple passes through the center of Paulette earlier this evening. The plane reported max 850-mb flight-level winds of 78 kt and believable SFMR winds of 58 kt. A dropsonde in the southeast quadrant measured adjusted mean boundary layer winds of just over 60 kt while multiple center drops revealed that the minimum pressure is now down to 981 mb. Taken together, these observations support an intensity of 65 kt, making Paulette the 6th hurricane of the 2020 Atlantic season. The plane found the Paulette has turned west-northwestward and is nearly exactly on the previous forecast track. With no major changes in the track guidance either, there is no reason to make any changes of note to the previous NHC track forecast at this time. A mid-level ridge building to the north of Paulette should keep the hurricane moving generally west-northwestward for the next day or so. The ridge and a mid-level trough to the west should then slide eastward by early Monday, causing Paulette to slow and turn northward, moving very near or over Bermuda Monday morning. Paulette is then forecast to turn northeastward and accelerate in that direction by Tuesday. The NHC forecast remains in the middle of the tightly clustered guidance suite at all forecast hours. Paulette appears to be getting more vertically aligned as the shear that has affected the cyclone for the past several days slowly decreases. Further intensification appears likely through early Monday given the warm SSTs below Paulette and favorable upper-air environment that is expected to develop around the cyclone. Dry air in the surrounding environment could be a limiting factor, but all of the intensity guidance continues to indicate that Paulette will be a dangerous hurricane when it approaches Bermuda late Sunday and early Monday. Further intensification will then be possible for another day or so after the hurricane begins to move away from Bermuda and it could be near major hurricane strength by the middle of next week. The NHC intensity forecast is near the middle of the latest intensity guidance throughout the forecast period. Key Messages: 1. Paulette is expected to approach Bermuda as a hurricane on Sunday and will be near the island Sunday night and Monday. A prolonged period of strong winds, storm surge, and heavy rainfall is expected on Bermuda beginning Sunday evening, and a hurricane warning is in effect for the island. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. 2. Swells produced by Paulette are affecting portions of the Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, and the east coast of the United States. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/0300Z 28.9N 59.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 13/1200Z 29.7N 61.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 14/0000Z 31.0N 63.8W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 14/1200Z 32.6N 65.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 15/0000Z 34.5N 64.0W 90 KT 105 MPH 60H 15/1200Z 36.2N 61.0W 95 KT 110 MPH 72H 16/0000Z 37.7N 57.5W 95 KT 110 MPH 96H 17/0000Z 41.0N 49.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 120H 18/0000Z 43.5N 42.0W 70 KT 80 MPH $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Hurricane Paulette Public Advisory Number 25
2020-09-13 04:40:01| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Sat Sep 12 2020 000 WTNT32 KNHC 130239 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Hurricane Paulette Advisory Number 25 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020 1100 PM AST Sat Sep 12 2020 ...PAULETTE NOW A HURRICANE... ...STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED TO BEGIN ON BERMUDA BY SUNDAY EVENING... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...28.9N 59.7W ABOUT 385 MI...615 KM SE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB...28.97 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Bermuda A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Tropical-storm-force winds that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous are expected to reach Bermuda Sunday afternoon or evening. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Paulette was located near latitude 28.9 North, longitude 59.7 West. Paulette is moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). A west-northwest or northwest motion is expected through Sunday night. A turn toward the north with a decrease in forward speed is forecast on Monday, followed by a northeastward motion Monday night and Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Paulette will move near or over Bermuda Monday morning. Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast, and Paulette is expected to be a dangerous hurricane when it approaches Bermuda late Sunday and early Monday. Some further strengthening is possible when Paulette turns northeastward and moves away from Bermuda late Monday through Tuesday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195 miles (315 km). The minimum central pressure recently measured by the Hurricane Hunter aircraft was 981 mb (28.97 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Paulette can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC, and on the web at https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to reach Bermuda by Sunday night or early Monday. Winds are expected to first reach tropical storm strength Sunday afternoon or evening, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding on Bermuda in areas of onshore winds. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. RAIN: Paulette will likely bring periods of heavy rain to Bermuda Sunday through Monday, with rainfall of 3 to 6 inches likely. SURF: Swells generated by Paulette are affecting portions of the Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, and the east coast of the United States. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST. Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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