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Tropical Storm Karina Public Advisory Number 3
2020-09-13 16:53:07| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM MDT Sun Sep 13 2020 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 131452 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Karina Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162020 900 AM MDT Sun Sep 13 2020 ...KARINA A LITTLE STRONGER... SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.6N 114.7W ABOUT 480 MI...775 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karina was located near latitude 17.6 North, longitude 114.7 West. Karina is moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue for the next several days. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) to the southwest of the center. An automated Mexican weather station on Clarion Island recently reported a wind gust to 44 mph (71 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Berg
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Tropical Storm Karina Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3
2020-09-13 16:53:07| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN SEP 13 2020 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 131452 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM KARINA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162020 1500 UTC SUN SEP 13 2020 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KARINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 114.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 115W 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 120W 34 X 1( 1) 30(31) 34(65) 4(69) X(69) X(69) 20N 120W 50 X X( X) 6( 6) 21(27) 3(30) X(30) X(30) 20N 120W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 25N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) 5(16) X(16) 25N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) 1( 9) $$ FORECASTER BERG
Tropical Storm Karina Forecast Advisory Number 3
2020-09-13 16:52:37| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN SEP 13 2020 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 131452 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM KARINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162020 1500 UTC SUN SEP 13 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 114.7W AT 13/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 0SE 80SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 114.7W AT 13/1500Z AT 13/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 114.3W FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 18.3N 115.8W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 20NE 40SE 90SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 19.0N 117.4W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 70SE 90SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 19.7N 119.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 90SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 20.2N 120.4W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 80SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 20.9N 121.6W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 70SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 21.7N 122.8W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 17/1200Z 22.6N 125.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 18/1200Z 22.8N 127.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.6N 114.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Hurricane Paulette Public Advisory Number 27
2020-09-13 16:50:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Sun Sep 13 2020 000 WTNT32 KNHC 131450 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Hurricane Paulette Advisory Number 27 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020 1100 AM AST Sun Sep 13 2020 ...PAULETTE HEADING NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD BERMUDA... ...STRONG WINDS...STORM SURGE...AND HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED TO BEGIN THERE BY THIS EVENING... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.9N 61.9W ABOUT 240 MI...385 KM SE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...976 MB...28.82 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Bermuda A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Tropical-storm-force winds that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous are expected to reach Bermuda this afternoon or evening. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Paulette was located near latitude 29.9 North, longitude 61.9 West. Paulette is moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this general motion is expected through tonight. A turn toward the north with a decrease in forward speed is forecast on Monday, followed by a faster northeastward motion Monday night and Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Paulette will move near or over Bermuda Monday morning. Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast, and Paulette is expected to be a dangerous hurricane when it approaches Bermuda late tonight and early Monday. Some further strengthening is possible when Paulette turns northeastward and moves away from Bermuda late Monday through Tuesday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195 miles (315 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 976 mb (28.82 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Paulette can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC, and on the web at https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to reach Bermuda by tonight or early Monday. Winds are expected to first reach tropical storm strength this afternoon or evening, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding on Bermuda in areas of onshore winds. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. RAIN: Paulette will bring periods of heavy rain to Bermuda through Monday, with rainfall of 3 to 6 inches expected. SURF: Swells generated by Paulette are affecting portions of the Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, and the east coast of the United States. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST. Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Latto
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Hurricane Paulette Wind Speed Probabilities Number 27
2020-09-13 16:50:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN SEP 13 2020 000 FONT12 KNHC 131450 PWSAT2 HURRICANE PAULETTE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 27 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172020 1500 UTC SUN SEP 13 2020 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE PAULETTE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 61.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 70 KTS...80 MPH...130 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SANTA CRUZ AZO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 1( 9) CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) BERMUDA 34 83 17(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) BERMUDA 50 12 83(95) 1(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) BERMUDA 64 1 80(81) 2(83) X(83) X(83) X(83) X(83) $$ FORECASTER LATTO
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