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Hurricane Paulette Wind Speed Probabilities Number 25

2020-09-13 04:40:01| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0300 UTC SUN SEP 13 2020 000 FONT12 KNHC 130239 PWSAT2 HURRICANE PAULETTE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 25 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172020 0300 UTC SUN SEP 13 2020 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE PAULETTE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 59.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) BERMUDA 34 7 70(77) 19(96) 2(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) BERMUDA 50 X 15(15) 63(78) 8(86) X(86) X(86) X(86) BERMUDA 64 X 4( 4) 56(60) 8(68) 1(69) X(69) X(69) $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY

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Hurricane Paulette Forecast Advisory Number 25

2020-09-13 04:39:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0300 UTC SUN SEP 13 2020 000 WTNT22 KNHC 130238 TCMAT2 HURRICANE PAULETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 25 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172020 0300 UTC SUN SEP 13 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BERMUDA A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH BERMUDA SUNDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.9N 59.7W AT 13/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 981 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT.......170NE 100SE 80SW 170NW. 12 FT SEAS..240NE 120SE 180SW 210NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.9N 59.7W AT 13/0300Z AT 13/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.6N 59.1W FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 29.7N 61.6W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...170NE 100SE 80SW 170NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 31.0N 63.8W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...150NE 120SE 90SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 32.6N 65.0W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 35SE 25SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 100SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 34.5N 64.0W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 45SE 30SW 40NW. 50 KT... 70NE 80SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...150NE 160SE 120SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 36.2N 61.0W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 80SE 70SW 70NW. 34 KT...150NE 160SE 140SW 170NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 37.7N 57.5W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 90SE 70SW 80NW. 34 KT...160NE 180SE 150SW 190NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 17/0000Z 41.0N 49.0W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 18/0000Z 43.5N 42.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.9N 59.7W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 13/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/0900Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY

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Tropical Storm Sally Forecast Discussion Number 6

2020-09-13 04:38:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 PM EDT Sat Sep 12 2020 000 WTNT44 KNHC 130238 TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Sally Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192020 1100 PM EDT Sat Sep 12 2020 Sally's structure remains somewhat disorganized this evening. While there has been a recent increase in deep convection near the low- level center, there is a large CDO feature with -70 to -80C tops displaced 50 to 60 miles to the south and southeast. This structure could be due to the 10 to 15 kt of northwesterly shear analyzed by the SHIPS model and UW-CIMSS. The initial intensity remains 35 kt based on the latest Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB, and the central pressure of 1003 mb is based on surface observations in the Naples area as the center passed offshore before 00Z. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft will be investigating Sally overnight to provide more information on the storm's intensity and structure. Given the current structure, only gradual strengthening is expected in the short term. However, once the cyclone develops more of an inner core, it should be able to take advantage of warm SSTs and low shear over the Gulf of Mexico during the next couple of days. Steady intensification to hurricane strength is forecast through 48 hours, with a leveling off of the intensity in 60-72 hours as the shear is expected to increase. Overall, the intensity guidance is a little less bullish this cycle, with the HWRF more aggressive while the remainder of the guidance shows a slower rate of intensification. The NHC intensity forecast through landfall remains unchanged from the previous advisory, but now lies a little above HCCA and the intensity consensus. The initial motion estimate is a somewhat uncertain 285/07. Sally is currently being steered by a mid-level ridge centered over the Carolinas that will shift eastward and weaken as a longwave trough moves into the eastern United States over the next 24 to 36 hours. During this time, Sally should move generally west-northwestward or northwestward with a decrease in forward speed on Monday. By 48 hours, the trough lifts out and a narrow ridge builds in north and east of Sally, which should result in the tropical cyclone turning north-northwestward and then northward at less than 5 kt as it approaches the north-central Gulf Coast and moves inland over the Mississippi Valley. After that time, the next trough should induce a faster northeastward motion by day 5. There is a fair bit of spread in the track guidance after 24 hours, with the COAMPS-TC well to the right and the GEFS ensemble mean and UKMET to the left. However, the GFS and ECMWF are in good agreement through 60 hours near the middle of the guidance envelope. The NHC track is similar to the previous one and lies in the middle of the guidance and is near the TVCA multi-model consensus and HCCA. Users are reminded to not focus on the exact details of the track or intensity forecasts, as the average NHC track error at 72 h is around 110 miles and the average intensity error is around 15 mph. In addition, wind, storm surge, and rainfall hazards will extend far from the center. Unfortunately, confidence is increasing that Sally's expected slow forward speed near the Gulf Coast will exacerbate the storm surge and heavy rainfall threats. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Life-threatening storm surge is possible along the Gulf Coast beginning on Monday, and a Storm Surge Watch is in effect for areas outside the southeastern Louisiana Hurricane and Storm Damage Risk Reduction System from the Mouth of the Mississippi River to the Alabama/Florida border. Residents in these areas should follow any advice given by local officials. 2. Hurricane conditions are possible by early Tuesday from Grand Isle, Louisiana to the Alabama/Florida border, including Metropolitan New Orleans, with tropical storm conditions possible by Monday. 3. Sally is expected to produce flash flooding across portions of southern Florida and prolong existing minor river flooding across central Florida through Sunday. Flash and urban flooding and minor to moderate river flooding are likely across portions of the central Gulf Coast from Sunday through the middle of next week. 4. Tropical storm conditions are possible early next week in portions of the Florida Panhandle, where a Tropical Storm Watch is in effect. Wind gusts to tropical storm force could occur over portions of the lower Florida Keys overnight. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/0300Z 26.3N 82.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 13/1200Z 27.0N 84.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 14/0000Z 27.7N 86.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 14/1200Z 28.3N 87.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 15/0000Z 28.8N 88.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 60H 15/1200Z 29.4N 89.2W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 16/0000Z 30.1N 89.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 17/0000Z 31.7N 89.1W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 120H 18/0000Z 33.5N 86.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Brennan

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Tropical Depression Sixteen-E Forecast Discussion Number 1

2020-09-13 04:38:29| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 900 PM MDT Sat Sep 12 2020 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 130238 TCDEP1 Tropical Depression Sixteen-E Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162020 900 PM MDT Sat Sep 12 2020 The last few visible satellite images indicated convection growing closer to the center of a low pressure area that NHC has been tracking for the past few days. Since the low was already well-defined this afternoon, the development of organized deep convection means that a tropical depression has formed. The initial wind speed is set to 30 kt, which is a blend of the TAFB/SAB fixes and earlier ASCAT data. The depression is embedded within a moderate easterly wind-shear environment, partially related to its position in the larger ITCZ/monsoon trough structure. Global model guidance is in reasonable agreement on the large-scale circulation becoming focused on the new tropical cyclone and a slight relaxation of the shear during the next couple of days. This change should lead to gradual intensification, and the new forecast is between the model consensus and the corrected-consensus aids. Beyond 2-3 days, decreasing SSTs and increasing dry air entrainment should promote weakening, and that is reflected below. The initial motion estimate is an uncertain northwestward or 315/08 kt. A mid-level ridge is forecast to build westward, causing the cyclone to move west-northwestward for a few days after the weekend. A westward turn is forecast at long range due to the shallow cyclone feeling the low-level ridge. One big uncertainty with this forecast is how it interacts with the larger ITCZ/monsoon trough circulation, including the remnants of Invest 91E. For now, it is assumed that only a slight slow down occurs as the depression becomes the dominant circulation in the area, and the forecast is more consistent with the GFS- or UKMET-based guidance. However, a slower ECMWF-like solution is also possible, but is being given less weight at this time. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/0300Z 16.7N 112.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 13/1200Z 17.5N 113.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 14/0000Z 18.3N 115.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 14/1200Z 18.9N 116.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 15/0000Z 19.5N 118.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 60H 15/1200Z 20.0N 119.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 16/0000Z 20.5N 121.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 17/0000Z 21.5N 123.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 18/0000Z 21.5N 126.0W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ Forecaster Blake

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Tropical Depression Sixteen-E Public Advisory Number 1

2020-09-13 04:37:02| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 900 PM MDT Sat Sep 12 2020 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 130236 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Sixteen-E Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162020 900 PM MDT Sat Sep 12 2020 ...NEW DEPRESSION FORMS... ...FORECAST TO MOVE WELL AWAY FROM MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.7N 112.9W ABOUT 470 MI...755 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Sixteen-E was located near latitude 16.7 North, longitude 112.9 West. The depression is moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and a west-northwest or northwest motion is expected for the next few days Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. The depression is forecast to become a tropical storm on Sunday, and further gradual strengthening is anticipated on Monday and Tuesday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Blake

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