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Hurricane Paulette Forecast Discussion Number 27

2020-09-13 16:50:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 AM AST Sun Sep 13 2020 000 WTNT42 KNHC 131450 TCDAT2 Hurricane Paulette Discussion Number 27 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020 1100 AM AST Sun Sep 13 2020 An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigating Paulette this morning found peak 700-mb flight-level winds of 92 kt, which reduces to around 75 kt at the surface. However, around that same time the peak winds measured by the SFMR instrument on board the aircraft were only 58 kt. It is possible that the stronger winds suggested by the flight-level values were not reaching the surface at that location. Later on in the flight, the SFMR measured 64-kt winds in the northwestern quadrant. Since there has been no notable change to the structure of the hurricane since the aircraft was in the system a few hours ago, the initial intensity is being held at 70 kt and is a compromise of those two different peak values measured by the aircraft. Infrared satellite imagery has been showing some dry air intrusion over the eastern portion of the circulation, causing a break in the eyewall there over the past few hours. There is currently deep convection firing around the remainder of the eyewall, and therefore it is anticipated the dry air will be worked out of the system soon. Very low wind shear and warm waters will support strengthening over the next couple of days, and Paulette is expected to be a dangerous hurricane as it nears Bermuda Monday morning. The window for strengthening should continue for another 12-24 h after the cyclone passes Bermuda, and Paulette could become a major hurricane during that time. After 48 h, vertical wind shear is forecast to rapidly increase. After 72 h, Paulette is expected to cross the 26 degree C SST isotherm, and by 120 h those SSTs will be near 22 degrees C. The NHC forecast shows a weakening trend beginning after 48 h due to the negative environmental factors. By 120 h, the global models suggest that Paulette will have completed a transition to an extratropical cyclone. The only change to the NHC intensity forecast from the previous advisory was a slight upward adjustment over the first few days due to the increase in strength found by the aircraft this morning. This forecast is in between the LGEM and HFIP corrected consensus, HCCA. Paulette is now moving northwestward at 12 kt, to the southwest of a mid-level ridge. This motion should continue until just after the cyclone passes Bermuda. Later on Monday, the hurricane should turn north, then on Monday night northeastward, as it rounds the periphery of the ridge. After turning northeastward, the cyclone is expected to accelerate as it gets picked up in the mid-latitude flow ahead of an approaching mid- to upper-level trough. Later on in the forecast period, a slower eastward motion is indicated once the aforementioned trough bypasses the cyclone. The latest NHC forecast track is little changed from the previous one through 48 h and lies in the middle of the latest global and regional track model guidance. Beyond 48 h, the NHC forecast is a little faster than the previous one, and lies near the tightly clustered consensus track guidance. On the forecast track, tropical storm conditions should reach Bermuda by this evening, with hurricane force winds arriving there overnight. Key Messages: 1. Paulette is expected to approach Bermuda as a hurricane today and will be near the island tonight and Monday. A prolonged period of strong winds, storm surge, and heavy rainfall is expected on Bermuda beginning this evening, and a hurricane warning is in effect for the island. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. 2. Swells produced by Paulette are affecting portions of the Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, and the east coast of the United States. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/1500Z 29.9N 61.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 14/0000Z 30.9N 63.6W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 14/1200Z 32.8N 64.8W 90 KT 105 MPH 36H 15/0000Z 35.0N 63.5W 95 KT 110 MPH 48H 15/1200Z 37.0N 60.0W 100 KT 115 MPH 60H 16/0000Z 39.1N 55.1W 95 KT 110 MPH 72H 16/1200Z 41.4N 49.1W 85 KT 100 MPH 96H 17/1200Z 43.9N 42.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 18/1200Z 44.0N 36.6W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Latto

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Hurricane Paulette Forecast Advisory Number 27

2020-09-13 16:50:11| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1500 UTC SUN SEP 13 2020 000 WTNT22 KNHC 131449 TCMAT2 HURRICANE PAULETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 27 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172020 1500 UTC SUN SEP 13 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BERMUDA A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH BERMUDA THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.9N 61.9W AT 13/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 976 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. 64 KT....... 50NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. 50 KT....... 80NE 30SE 30SW 80NW. 34 KT.......170NE 100SE 80SW 170NW. 12 FT SEAS..330NE 120SE 210SW 330NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.9N 61.9W AT 13/1500Z AT 13/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.6N 61.4W FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 30.9N 63.6W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 25SE 0SW 30NW. 50 KT... 80NE 40SE 40SW 80NW. 34 KT...170NE 110SE 80SW 170NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 32.8N 64.8W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...170NE 140SE 100SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 35.0N 63.5W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...160NE 160SE 110SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 37.0N 60.0W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 50 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 70NW. 34 KT...160NE 160SE 130SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 39.1N 55.1W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 50 KT...100NE 100SE 80SW 80NW. 34 KT...180NE 180SE 150SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 41.4N 49.1W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT...100NE 100SE 80SW 80NW. 34 KT...190NE 200SE 160SW 190NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 17/1200Z 43.9N 42.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 18/1200Z 44.0N 36.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.9N 61.9W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 13/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/2100Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO

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Hurricane Paulette Public Advisory Number 26A

2020-09-13 13:57:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 800 AM AST Sun Sep 13 2020 000 WTNT32 KNHC 131157 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Hurricane Paulette Intermediate Advisory Number 26A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020 800 AM AST Sun Sep 13 2020 ...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FINDS PAULETTE A LITTLE STRONGER... ...STRONG WINDS...STORM SURGE...AND HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED TO BEGIN ON BERMUDA BY THIS EVENING... SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.6N 61.4W ABOUT 280 MI...390 KM SE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...978 MB...28.88 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Bermuda A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Tropical-storm-force winds that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous are expected to reach Bermuda this afternoon or evening. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Paulette was located near latitude 29.6 North, longitude 61.4 West. Paulette is moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). A motion toward the west-northwest or northwest is expected through tonight. A turn toward the north with a decrease in forward speed is forecast on Monday, followed by a northeastward motion Monday night and Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Paulette will move near or over Bermuda Monday morning. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft recently reported that the maximum sustained winds have increased to near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast, and Paulette is expected to be a dangerous hurricane when it approaches Bermuda late tonight and early Monday. Some further strengthening is possible when Paulette turns northeastward and moves away from Bermuda late Monday through Tuesday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195 miles (315 km). The latest minimum central pressure estimated from reconnaissance aircraft data is 978 mb (28.88 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Paulette can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC, and on the web at https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to reach Bermuda by tonight or early Monday. Winds are expected to first reach tropical storm strength this afternoon or evening, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding on Bermuda in areas of onshore winds. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. RAIN: Paulette will bring periods of heavy rain to Bermuda today through Monday, with rainfall of 3 to 6 inches likely. SURF: Swells generated by Paulette are affecting portions of the Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, and the east coast of the United States. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Latto

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Tropical Storm Sally Public Advisory Number 7A

2020-09-13 13:57:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 800 AM EDT Sun Sep 13 2020 000 WTNT34 KNHC 131156 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Sally Intermediate Advisory Number 7A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192020 800 AM EDT Sun Sep 13 2020 ...HEAVY RAINS FROM SALLY SPREADING NORTHWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF FLORIDA... SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.3N 84.6W ABOUT 155 MI...250 KM W OF PORT CHARLOTTE FLORIDA ABOUT 300 MI...485 KM ESE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.41 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Port Fourchon Louisiana to the Mississippi/Alabama Border * Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Lake Borgne A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Grand Isle Louisiana to Ocean Springs Mississippi * Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas including metropolitan New Orleans A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Mississippi/Alabama Border to the Alabama/Florida Border A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * East of Ocean Springs to the Alabama/Florida Border A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * East of Ocean Springs to Indian Pass A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Indian Pass to Ochlockonee River Florida A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within 12 to 24 hours. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Sally was located near latitude 27.3 North, longitude 84.6 West. Sally is moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and a west-northwestward or northwestward motion is expected through Monday. A decrease in forward speed and a turn toward the north- northwest is forecast on Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Sally will move over the southeastern and eastern Gulf of Mexico today, move over the north-central Gulf of Mexico tonight and Monday, and approach the north-central Gulf Coast within the hurricane warning area late Monday and Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is expected over the next couple of days, and Sally is forecast to become a hurricane on Monday, with some additional strengthening possible through early Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center. A buoy located about 25 miles offshore of Venice, Florida, has reported sustained winds of 45 mph and a gust to 58 mph within the past few hours. The latest minimum central pressure based on data from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is 996 mb (29.41 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Sally can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs including Lake Borgne...7-11 ft Port Fourchon to Mouth of the Mississippi River...4-7 ft Ocean Springs to MS/AL Border...4-7 ft Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas...4-6 ft MS/AL Border to AL/FL Border including Mobile Bay...2-4 ft AL/FL Border to Chassahowitzka including Pensacola Bay, Choctawhatchee Bay, and Saint Andrew Bay...1-3 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the right of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and damaging waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area starting late Monday, with hurricane conditions possible within the hurricane watch area by early Tuesday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area by Monday, and within the warning area late Monday. RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Sally is expected to produce additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches with isolated amounts of 6 inches across southern and central Florida through Monday. This rainfall will produce flash and urban flooding and prolong high flows and ongoing minor flooding on rivers across Central Florida. Tropical Storm Sally is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 6 to 12 inches with isolated amounts of 20 inches over portions of the Central Gulf Coast between the western Florida Panhandle and far southeast Louisiana from Monday into the middle of the week. Rainfall of 4 to 8 inches is possible farther inland over portions of Mississippi and Alabama. Sally is expected to be a slow moving system resulting in significant flash flooding near the Central Gulf Coast through the middle of the week. Flash, urban and rapid onset flooding along small streams, and minor to isolated major flooding on rivers is likely. SURF: Swells will spread northward along the west-central coast of Florida and reach the Florida Panhandle and the northern Gulf Coast during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Brown

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Tropical Storm Sally Forecast Discussion Number 7

2020-09-13 11:42:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 AM EDT Sun Sep 13 2020 000 WTNT44 KNHC 130941 CCA TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Sally Discussion Number 7...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192020 500 AM EDT Sun Sep 13 2020 Corrected for inland status at 60 and 72 hourrs A large burst of convection has formed near the center of Sally this morning, and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter data indicate that the storm is strengthening. Peak flight-level winds were up to 57 kt at 925 mb, with believable SFMR winds of up to 45 kt, and pressure falling a couple of mb to 1001. The initial wind speed is set to 45 kt for this advisory. While northwesterly shear has been affecting Sally, the global models suggest that the shear will decrease later today as it moves under a narrow ridge. Models all respond to these changing conditions by showing intensification, but they disagree on the rate of change. It is an extremely tricky forecast because of how this might happen close to landfall, but guidance is generally 5-10 kt higher than the last cycle so the intensity forecast has been raised by those amounts up through landfall. It is worth noting that rapid intensification is a possibility if the system develops a more solid inner core on Monday, and stronger solutions like the HWRF model can't be dismissed. Sally is moving west-northwestward at a faster speed this morning. The biggest change to note is that almost every model has shifted westward (faster) due to narrow ridging developing across the northern Gulf Coast between the storm and an exiting mid-latitude trough. The flow gets quite weak near and after landfall, so the cyclone should slow down on Tuesday/Wednesday and turn northward. After that time, the next trough should induce a faster northeastward motion by day 5. The new track is shifted westward between 30-45 n mi near the coast of Louisiana, and is still east of the GFS and ECMWF models. Users are reminded to not focus on the exact details of the track or intensity forecasts, as the average NHC track error at 48 h is around 80-90 miles and the average intensity error is around 10-15 mph. In addition, wind, storm surge, and rainfall hazards will extend far from the center. Unfortunately, confidence is increasing that Sally's expected slow forward speed near the Gulf Coast will exacerbate the storm surge and heavy rainfall threats. KEY MESSAGES: 1. An extremely dangerous and life-threatening storm surge is now expected, and a Storm Surge Warning is in effect for areas outside the southeastern Louisiana Hurricane and Storm Damage Risk Reduction System from Port Fourchon Louisiana to the Mississippi/Alabama border. Residents in these areas should follow any advice given by local officials. 2. Hurricane conditions are expected by early Tuesday from Grand Isle, Louisiana to Ocean Springs, Mississippi, including Metropolitan New Orleans, with tropical storm conditions likely by Monday. Preparations should be rushed to completion in those areas. 3. Tropical Storm Sally is expected to produce flash flooding across southern and central Florida and prolong existing minor river flooding across Central Florida through Monday. Significant flash flooding and minor to isolated major river flooding is likely across portions of the Central Gulf Coast from Monday through the middle of the week. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/0900Z 27.0N 84.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 13/1800Z 27.7N 85.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 14/0600Z 28.3N 87.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 14/1800Z 28.7N 88.7W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 15/0600Z 29.2N 89.7W 85 KT 100 MPH 60H 15/1800Z 30.1N 90.0W 70 KT 80 MPH...INLAND 72H 16/0600Z 31.0N 90.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 96H 17/0600Z 32.8N 88.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 120H 18/0600Z 34.5N 84.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Blake

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