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Tropical Depression Rene Wind Speed Probabilities Number 8
2020-09-09 04:50:50| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC WED SEP 09 2020 000 FONT13 KNHC 090250 PWSAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION RENE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182020 0300 UTC WED SEP 09 2020 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION RENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 29.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Tropical Storm Paulette Forecast Advisory Number 9
2020-09-09 04:50:16| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC WED SEP 09 2020 000 WTNT22 KNHC 090250 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM PAULETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172020 0300 UTC WED SEP 09 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 45.0W AT 09/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. 34 KT.......150NE 60SE 30SW 130NW. 12 FT SEAS..210NE 60SE 90SW 210NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 45.0W AT 09/0300Z AT 09/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 44.5W FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 19.8N 46.2W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. 34 KT...150NE 60SE 30SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 20.2N 48.1W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT...140NE 60SE 30SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 20.6N 50.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...120NE 60SE 30SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 20.8N 51.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...100NE 60SE 30SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 21.1N 52.9W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...100NE 60SE 30SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 21.9N 53.8W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...100NE 60SE 30SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 13/0000Z 24.4N 55.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 14/0000Z 27.5N 59.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.2N 45.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Tropical Depression Rene Forecast Advisory Number 8
2020-09-09 04:50:16| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC WED SEP 09 2020 000 WTNT23 KNHC 090250 TCMAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION RENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182020 0300 UTC WED SEP 09 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 29.3W AT 09/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 0SE 0SW 45NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 29.3W AT 09/0300Z AT 09/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 28.6W FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 17.5N 31.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 18.4N 33.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 19.3N 35.9W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 20.5N 38.1W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 22.1N 39.8W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 24.2N 41.4W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 13/0000Z 28.5N 42.6W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 14/0000Z 30.2N 40.3W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.0N 29.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/0900Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Tropical Storm Rene Forecast Discussion Number 7
2020-09-08 22:34:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 800 PM CVT Tue Sep 08 2020 000 WTNT43 KNHC 082034 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Rene Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182020 800 PM CVT Tue Sep 08 2020 Rene has not changed much throughout the day. The storm is producing deep convection that is loosely organized in bands around the center. The satellite intensity estimates are unchanged from earlier and range from 25 kt to 40 kt. Based on these data and the earlier ASCAT pass, the initial intensity is again held at 35 kt. The eastern-most bands of Rene are now pulling west of the Cabo Verde Islands, and the Tropical Storm Warning for those islands has been discontinued. Although Rene has struggled to maintain its intensity during the past 24 hours, the models insist that the cyclone will begin to take advantage of the generally conducive conditions of low wind shear, high moisture, and relatively warm waters. Therefore, the NHC intensity forecast continues to show Rene strengthening to a hurricane in a couple of days. Beyond that time, however, Rene will likely be moving into an environment of strong westerly wind shear, which should cause the storm to weaken in the 3-5 day time period. This forecast is largely an update of the previous one and closely follows the IVCN model. The tropical storm continues to move westward at 14 kt. There has been no significant change to the track forecast reasoning. A mid-level ridge should continue to steer Rene westward to west-northwestward for the next couple of days. After that time, the storm should slow down and gradually turn to the north and then to the northeast as it moves into a weakness in the ridge. There is a little less spread in the guidance this cycle, but there remain differences in the models concerning where and how sharply Rene recurves. The NHC track forecast is similar to the previous one and lies close to the TVCA and TVCX consensus models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/2100Z 16.8N 27.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 09/0600Z 17.2N 29.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 09/1800Z 18.0N 32.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 10/0600Z 18.9N 34.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 10/1800Z 19.9N 37.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 60H 11/0600Z 21.3N 38.8W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 11/1800Z 23.2N 40.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 12/1800Z 27.7N 42.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 13/1800Z 30.5N 40.5W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Storm Rene Public Advisory Number 7
2020-09-08 22:33:47| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 800 PM CVT Tue Sep 08 2020 000 WTNT33 KNHC 082033 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Rene Advisory Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182020 800 PM CVT Tue Sep 08 2020 ...RENE PULLING AWAY FROM THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS.. SUMMARY OF 800 PM CVT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.8N 27.9W ABOUT 265 MI...425 KM WNW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Government of the Cabo Verde Islands has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning for all of the Cabo Verde Islands. There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM CVT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Rene was located near latitude 16.8 North, longitude 27.9 West. Rene is moving toward the west near 16 mph (26 km/h), and a motion toward the west or west-northwest is expected over the next couple of days, followed by a turn to the northwest. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast, and Rene is expected to become a hurricane in a couple of days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 AM CVT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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