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Tropical Storm Cindy Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5
2017-06-20 22:34:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE JUN 20 2017 000 FONT13 KNHC 202034 PWSAT3 TROPICAL STORM CINDY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032017 2100 UTC TUE JUN 20 2017 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CINDY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 90.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT MOBILE AL 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GULFPORT MS 34 3 3( 6) 1( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) STENNIS MS 34 5 4( 9) 2(11) X(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) BURAS LA 34 11 6(17) 1(18) X(18) 1(19) X(19) X(19) GFMX 280N 890W 34 29 2(31) 1(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) JACKSON MS 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 7 8(15) 2(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) GFMX 280N 910W 34 79 6(85) 1(86) X(86) X(86) X(86) X(86) BATON ROUGE LA 34 4 8(12) 4(16) 2(18) 1(19) X(19) X(19) MORGAN CITY LA 34 9 15(24) 4(28) 1(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) ALEXANDRIA LA 34 1 4( 5) 6(11) 9(20) 6(26) X(26) X(26) LAFAYETTE LA 34 4 11(15) 11(26) 3(29) 1(30) X(30) X(30) NEW IBERIA LA 34 5 14(19) 10(29) 2(31) 1(32) X(32) X(32) GFMX 280N 930W 34 23 54(77) 8(85) X(85) X(85) X(85) X(85) GFMX 280N 930W 50 X 14(14) 7(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) GFMX 280N 930W 64 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) SHREVEPORT LA 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 9(12) 9(21) X(21) X(21) FORT POLK LA 34 1 5( 6) 9(15) 17(32) 4(36) X(36) X(36) FORT POLK LA 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) LAKE CHARLES 34 1 9(10) 26(36) 12(48) 1(49) X(49) X(49) LAKE CHARLES 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) CAMERON LA 34 2 15(17) 33(50) 8(58) X(58) X(58) X(58) CAMERON LA 50 X X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) CAMERON LA 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) JASPER TX 34 1 4( 5) 10(15) 23(38) 2(40) X(40) X(40) JASPER TX 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) KOUNTZE TX 34 1 6( 7) 16(23) 20(43) 1(44) X(44) X(44) KOUNTZE TX 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) PORT ARTHUR TX 34 1 9(10) 29(39) 14(53) 1(54) X(54) X(54) PORT ARTHUR TX 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) PORT ARTHUR TX 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) GALVESTON TX 34 1 8( 9) 21(30) 6(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) GALVESTON TX 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) HOUSTON TX 34 1 4( 5) 9(14) 8(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) HOUSTON TX 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) FREEPORT TX 34 1 6( 7) 8(15) 4(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) GFMX 280N 950W 34 1 10(11) 8(19) 1(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) HIGH ISLAND TX 34 1 9(10) 28(38) 11(49) 1(50) X(50) X(50) HIGH ISLAND TX 50 X X( X) 5( 5) 4( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) MATAGORDA TX 34 1 4( 5) 3( 8) 1( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) PORT O CONNOR 34 X 3( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ROCKPORT TX 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GFMX 270N 960W 34 1 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
Tropical Storm Cindy Forecast Advisory Number 5
2017-06-20 22:34:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE JUN 20 2017 000 WTNT23 KNHC 202033 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM CINDY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032017 2100 UTC TUE JUN 20 2017 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED WESTWARD TO SAN LUIS PASS TEXAS. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SAN LUIS PASS TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE U.S. GULF COAST FROM THE CENTRAL TEXAS COAST TO THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.7N 90.6W AT 20/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 0 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT.......180NE 120SE 0SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..270NE 270SE 0SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.7N 90.6W AT 20/2100Z AT 20/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.7N 90.7W FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 26.6N 91.8W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...180NE 120SE 0SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 27.4N 92.9W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...150NE 120SE 30SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 28.9N 93.9W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...120NE 90SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 30.8N 94.3W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 35.0N 90.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 24/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.7N 90.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
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Tropical Storm Cindy Graphics
2017-06-20 19:34:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 20 Jun 2017 17:34:24 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 20 Jun 2017 15:29:33 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Storm Cindy (AT3/AL032017)
2017-06-20 19:33:33| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...DISTURBANCE BECOMES TROPICAL STORM CINDY... ...HEAVY RAINFALL SPREADING ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST... As of 1:00 PM CDT Tue Jun 20 the center of Cindy was located near 25.9, -90.5 with movement Stationary. The minimum central pressure was 999 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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Tropical Storm Cindy Public Advisory Number 4A
2017-06-20 19:33:33| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 100 PM CDT Tue Jun 20 2017 000 WTNT33 KNHC 201733 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Cindy Intermediate Advisory Number 4A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032017 100 PM CDT Tue Jun 20 2017 ...DISTURBANCE BECOMES TROPICAL STORM CINDY... ...HEAVY RAINFALL SPREADING ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST... SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.9N 90.5W ABOUT 265 MI...430 KM S OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA ABOUT 355 MI...565 KM SE OF GALVESTON TEXAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * High Island to the Mouth of the Pearl River A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * West of High Island to San Luis Pass A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24 to 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere along the U.S. Gulf Coast from the central Texas coast to the western Florida Panhandle should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ Satellite imagery, aircraft data, and surface observations indicate that the low pressure system in the central Gulf of Mexico has acquired a well-defined center, and is now Tropical Storm Cindy, the third tropical storm of 2017. At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Cindy was centered near latitude 25.9 North, longitude 90.5 West. Cindy has been stationary for the past few hours, but the system is expected to resume a motion toward the northwest at around 10 mph (17 km/h) later today, and this motion is expected to continue through Wednesday night. A turn toward the north-northwest is forecast early Thursday. On the forecast track, Cindy is expected to approach the coast of southwest Louisiana late Wednesday or Wednesday night, and move inland over western Louisiana and eastern Texas on Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast before the system reaches the coast on Thursday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km), mainly to the north and east of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the coast within the warning area later today and spread westward within the warning area through Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area on Wednesday. RAINFALL: Cindy is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 6 to 9 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches over southeastern Louisiana, southern Mississippi, southern Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle through Thursday. Rainfall amounts of 3 to 5 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches can be expected farther west across southwest Louisiana into southeast Texas through Thursday. STORM SURGE: Inundation of 1 to 3 feet above ground level is possible along the coast in portions of the Tropical Storm Warning area. TORNADOES: A tornado or two is possible this afternoon and tonight from south-central Louisiana to the western Florida Panhandle. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Brennan
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