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Summary for Tropical Storm Cindy (AT3/AL032017)
2017-06-21 07:48:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...HEAVY RAINFALL COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST... As of 1:00 AM CDT Wed Jun 21 the center of Cindy was located near 26.8, -91.4 with movement NW at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 997 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.
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Tropical Storm Cindy Public Advisory Number 6A
2017-06-21 07:48:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 100 AM CDT Wed Jun 21 2017 000 WTNT33 KNHC 210548 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Cindy Intermediate Advisory Number 6A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032017 100 AM CDT Wed Jun 21 2017 ...HEAVY RAINFALL COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST... SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...26.8N 91.4W ABOUT 200 MI...325 KM S OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA ABOUT 270 MI...435 KM SE OF GALVESTON TEXAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * San Luis Pass Texas to the Alabama-Florida border * Metropolitan New Orleans * Lake Pontchartrain A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12 to 24 hours. Interests elsewhere along the U.S. Gulf Coast from the central Texas coast to the western Florida Panhandle should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Cindy was located near latitude 26.8 North, longitude 91.4 West. Cindy is moving toward the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue today. A turn toward the north-northwest and then toward the north is expected tonight and early Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of Cindy will approach the coast of southwest Louisiana and southeast Texas late today or tonight, and move inland over southeastern Texas or southwestern Louisiana on Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected today. Slight weakening is forecast to begin on Thursday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 275 miles (445 km), mainly north through northeast of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Cindy is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 6 to 9 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches over southeastern Louisiana, southern Mississippi, southern Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle through Thursday. This rainfall could cause life-threatening flash flooding in these areas. Rainfall amounts of 3 to 5 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches can be expected farther west across southwest Louisiana into southeast Texas through Thursday. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are beginning to spread across portions of the northern Gulf of Mexico coast over the eastern part of the warning area. These conditions should spread westward within the warning area through early Thursday. STORM SURGE: Inundation of 1 to 3 feet above ground level is expected along the coast in portions of the Tropical Storm Warning area, with isolated areas possibly up to 4 feet. TORNADOES: Isolated tornadoes are possible through today from southern Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Storm Cindy Graphics
2017-06-21 05:02:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 21 Jun 2017 03:02:42 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 21 Jun 2017 03:22:19 GMT
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Tropical Storm Cindy Forecast Discussion Number 6
2017-06-21 05:01:04| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Tue Jun 20 2017 000 WTNT43 KNHC 210300 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Cindy Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032017 1000 PM CDT Tue Jun 20 2017 Data from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft and nearby ship D5DY4 indicate that Cindy has strengthened to 50 kt based on peak SFMR and flight-level winds of 51 kt and 62 kt, respectively, and the ship report of winds near 50 kt. The NHC greatly appreciates the observations reported by ships C6CE8, ABVZ5, D5DY4, V7MO2, and WHED, which have been navigating through and near the center of Cindy for the past several hours. The initial motion estimate is 310/06 kt based on recent reconnaissance fixes. A northwestward motion is expected for the next 24 hours, after which Cindy is expected to recurve northward and then northeastward around the western portion of the strong subtropical ridge located over the southeastern United States. The 18Z model guidance has shifted slightly to the east, and the new NHC track has been adjusted a little to the east as well, close to the consensus track model TVCA. Given the nature of the circulation and the fact that wind and rain hazards extend well north and east of the center, users are encouraged not to focus on the details of the track forecast. Although Cindy has strengthened this evening, little change in strength is expected for the next 12 hours or so, followed by gradual weakening thereafter due to the combination of strong vertical wind shear and abundance of dry mid-level preventing the development of significant inner-core convection. The new NHC intensity follows the trend of the previous advisory and is a little above the intensity consensus model IVCN. The 34-kt wind radii were expanded in the northwest and northeast quadrants based on recon wind data, and observations from coastal and offshore buoy data. This has required and eastward extension of the Tropical Storm Warning along the north-central Gulf coast. The primary hazard from Cindy continues to be very heavy rainfall over portions of the central and eastern Gulf Coast, which could cause life-threatening flash flooding in some locations. For more information on the flooding hazard, see products from your local National Weather Service office and the Weather Prediction Center. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/0300Z 26.4N 91.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 21/1200Z 27.0N 91.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 22/0000Z 28.1N 93.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 22/1200Z 29.8N 93.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 23/0000Z 31.4N 93.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 72H 24/0000Z 34.7N 90.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND 96H 25/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Storm Cindy Wind Speed Probabilities Number 6
2017-06-21 04:58:09| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC WED JUN 21 2017 000 FONT13 KNHC 210257 PWSAT3 TROPICAL STORM CINDY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032017 0300 UTC WED JUN 21 2017 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CINDY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT GFMX 290N 870W 34 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MOBILE AL 34 3 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) GULFPORT MS 34 8 5(13) 1(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) STENNIS MS 34 11 5(16) 1(17) 1(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) BURAS LA 34 26 5(31) X(31) 1(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) GFMX 280N 890W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) JACKSON MS 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 16 8(24) 2(26) 1(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) GFMX 280N 910W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) GFMX 280N 910W 50 5 2( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) BATON ROUGE LA 34 10 11(21) 6(27) X(27) 1(28) X(28) X(28) MORGAN CITY LA 34 24 13(37) 4(41) 1(42) X(42) X(42) X(42) ALEXANDRIA LA 34 3 6( 9) 13(22) 5(27) 1(28) X(28) X(28) LAFAYETTE LA 34 11 15(26) 14(40) 1(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) LAFAYETTE LA 50 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NEW IBERIA LA 34 15 16(31) 12(43) 1(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) NEW IBERIA LA 50 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GFMX 280N 930W 34 44 33(77) 2(79) 1(80) X(80) X(80) X(80) GFMX 280N 930W 50 1 18(19) 2(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) GFMX 280N 930W 64 X 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) SHREVEPORT LA 34 X 2( 2) 6( 8) 6(14) 3(17) X(17) X(17) FORT POLK LA 34 3 7(10) 23(33) 7(40) 1(41) X(41) X(41) FORT POLK LA 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) LAKE CHARLES 34 6 14(20) 33(53) 2(55) X(55) X(55) X(55) LAKE CHARLES 50 X X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) LAKE CHARLES 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) CAMERON LA 34 8 23(31) 32(63) 2(65) X(65) X(65) X(65) CAMERON LA 50 X 1( 1) 10(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) CAMERON LA 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) JASPER TX 34 2 7( 9) 22(31) 8(39) 1(40) X(40) X(40) JASPER TX 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) KOUNTZE TX 34 3 7(10) 27(37) 6(43) 1(44) X(44) X(44) KOUNTZE TX 50 X X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) PORT ARTHUR TX 34 4 12(16) 33(49) 4(53) X(53) X(53) X(53) PORT ARTHUR TX 50 X X( X) 8( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) PORT ARTHUR TX 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) GALVESTON TX 34 3 10(13) 17(30) 2(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) GALVESTON TX 50 X 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) HOUSTON TX 34 2 5( 7) 10(17) 2(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) FREEPORT TX 34 2 6( 8) 8(16) 1(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) GFMX 280N 950W 34 4 8(12) 5(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) HIGH ISLAND TX 34 4 12(16) 26(42) 2(44) 1(45) X(45) X(45) HIGH ISLAND TX 50 X 1( 1) 6( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) MATAGORDA TX 34 2 4( 6) 3( 9) X( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) PORT O CONNOR 34 1 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ROCKPORT TX 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GFMX 270N 960W 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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