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Tropical Storm Cindy Graphics
2017-06-21 13:40:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 21 Jun 2017 11:40:32 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 21 Jun 2017 09:23:44 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Storm Cindy (AT3/AL032017)
2017-06-21 13:39:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...HEAVY RAINFALL COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST... As of 7:00 AM CDT Wed Jun 21 the center of Cindy was located near 27.5, -92.2 with movement NW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 996 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.
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Tropical Storm Cindy Public Advisory Number 7A
2017-06-21 13:39:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 700 AM CDT Wed Jun 21 2017 000 WTNT33 KNHC 211139 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Cindy Intermediate Advisory Number 7A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032017 700 AM CDT Wed Jun 21 2017 ...HEAVY RAINFALL COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST... SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.5N 92.2W ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM SSW OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA ABOUT 200 MI...325 KM SE OF GALVESTON TEXAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.41 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * San Luis Pass Texas to the Alabama-Florida border * Metropolitan New Orleans * Lake Pontchartrain A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12 to 24 hours. Interests elsewhere along the U.S. Gulf Coast from the central Texas coast to the western Florida Panhandle should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Cindy was located near latitude 27.5 North, longitude 92.2 West. Cindy is moving toward the northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue today. A turn toward the north-northwest and then toward the north is expected later today and early Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of Cindy will approach the coast of southwest Louisiana and southeast Texas late today or tonight, and move inland over southeastern Texas or southwestern Louisiana on Thursday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected today. Slight weakening is forecast to begin on Thursday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 275 miles (445 km), mainly north through northeast of the center. The minimum central pressure recently reported by an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft was 996 mb (29.41 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Cindy is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 6 to 9 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches over southeastern Louisiana, southern Mississippi, southern Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle through Thursday. This rainfall could cause life-threatening flash flooding in these areas. Rainfall amounts of 3 to 5 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches can be expected farther west across western Louisiana and eastern Texas through Thursday. Rainfall should spread northeastward across Arkansas and into portions of the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys through Friday, with total rain accumulations of 3 to 5 inches with locally higher amounts possible. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are affecting portions of the northern Gulf of Mexico coast over the eastern part of the warning area. These conditions should spread westward within the warning area through early Thursday. STORM SURGE: Inundation of 1 to 3 feet above ground level is expected along the coast in portions of the Tropical Storm Warning area, with isolated areas possibly up to 4 feet. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible this morning through tonight from the western Florida Panhandle to southern Louisiana. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Avila
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Tropical Storm Cindy Graphics
2017-06-21 10:48:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 21 Jun 2017 08:48:43 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 21 Jun 2017 08:48:44 GMT
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Tropical Storm Cindy Forecast Discussion Number 7
2017-06-21 10:37:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Wed Jun 21 2017 000 WTNT43 KNHC 210836 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Cindy Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032017 400 AM CDT Wed Jun 21 2017 Cindy does not look much like a tropical cyclone on satellite images this morning. The deep convection is well-removed to the north and northeast of an exposed low-level center, and there is a rather linear north-south band of convection several hundred miles east of the center. Water vapor imagery indicates that an upper-level low is located a couple of hundred miles to the northwest of Cindy's center, suggesting that the system has at least some subtropical characteristics. The current intensity is held at 50 kt for this advisory, although surface observations and a recent ASCAT overpass suggest that this may be generous. Global model forecasts indicate significant shear, with some mid-level dry air wrapping around the circulation, over the next day or so. These factors, along with the current lack of convection near the center, should result in some weakening of the system prior to landfall, perhaps more so than indicated in the NHC forecast. An Air Force Reserve Unit Hurricane Hunter aircraft will investigate the cyclone soon, to confirm the intensity and wind field. The initial motion estimate remains northwestward, or 310/7 kt. Cindy is expected to turn northward and move through a break in the mid-level subtropical ridge along the northwest Gulf of Mexico coast. Later in the forecast period Cindy, or its remnant, should accelerate northeastward in the westerlies over the eastern United States. The official track forecast is mainly a blend of the ECMWF and GFS and also leans toward the latest HFIP Corrected Consensus prediction. The primary hazard from Cindy continues to be very heavy rainfall over portions of the central and eastern Gulf Coast, which could cause life-threatening flash flooding in some locations. For more information on the flooding hazard, see products from your local National Weather Service office and the Weather Prediction Center. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/0900Z 27.3N 91.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 21/1800Z 28.0N 92.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 22/0600Z 29.3N 93.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 22/1800Z 30.9N 93.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 48H 23/0600Z 33.2N 92.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 72H 24/0600Z 36.0N 85.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND 96H 25/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
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