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Tropical Storm Cindy Wind Speed Probabilities Number 7

2017-06-21 10:36:33| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0900 UTC WED JUN 21 2017 000 FONT13 KNHC 210836 PWSAT3 TROPICAL STORM CINDY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032017 0900 UTC WED JUN 21 2017 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CINDY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT MOBILE AL 34 5 2( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) GULFPORT MS 34 12 3(15) 1(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) STENNIS MS 34 19 3(22) X(22) 1(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) BURAS LA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) GFMX 280N 890W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) JACKSON MS 34 1 6( 7) 1( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 38 3(41) 1(42) X(42) X(42) X(42) X(42) GFMX 280N 910W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) BATON ROUGE LA 34 34 9(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) MORGAN CITY LA 34 62 3(65) X(65) X(65) X(65) X(65) X(65) ALEXANDRIA LA 34 11 16(27) 13(40) 1(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) LAFAYETTE LA 34 43 19(62) 2(64) X(64) X(64) X(64) X(64) NEW IBERIA LA 34 53 16(69) X(69) X(69) X(69) X(69) X(69) GFMX 280N 930W 34 87 2(89) X(89) X(89) X(89) X(89) X(89) GFMX 280N 930W 50 46 1(47) X(47) X(47) X(47) X(47) X(47) GFMX 280N 930W 64 2 X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) SHREVEPORT LA 34 1 5( 6) 9(15) 6(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) FORT POLK LA 34 11 23(34) 22(56) 1(57) X(57) X(57) X(57) FORT POLK LA 50 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) LAKE CHARLES 34 29 40(69) 9(78) X(78) X(78) X(78) X(78) LAKE CHARLES 50 X 6( 6) 5(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) LAKE CHARLES 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) CAMERON LA 34 43 40(83) 4(87) X(87) X(87) X(87) X(87) CAMERON LA 50 X 13(13) 4(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) CAMERON LA 64 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) JASPER TX 34 8 18(26) 22(48) 1(49) X(49) X(49) X(49) JASPER TX 50 X 1( 1) 6( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) KOUNTZE TX 34 10 23(33) 13(46) 1(47) X(47) X(47) X(47) KOUNTZE TX 50 X 4( 4) 5( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) PORT ARTHUR TX 34 21 35(56) 8(64) X(64) X(64) X(64) X(64) PORT ARTHUR TX 50 X 11(11) 5(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) PORT ARTHUR TX 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) GALVESTON TX 34 12 18(30) 1(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) GALVESTON TX 50 X 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) HOUSTON TX 34 5 8(13) 2(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) FREEPORT TX 34 6 8(14) 1(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) GFMX 280N 950W 34 8 5(13) X(13) 1(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) HIGH ISLAND TX 34 18 26(44) 4(48) X(48) X(48) X(48) X(48) HIGH ISLAND TX 50 X 10(10) 2(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) MATAGORDA TX 34 3 3( 6) X( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) PORT O CONNOR 34 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ROCKPORT TX 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GFMX 270N 960W 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER PASCH

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Summary for Tropical Storm Cindy (AT3/AL032017)

2017-06-21 10:36:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...HEAVY RAINFALL COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST... As of 4:00 AM CDT Wed Jun 21 the center of Cindy was located near 27.3, -91.9 with movement NW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 997 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.

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Tropical Storm Cindy Public Advisory Number 7

2017-06-21 10:36:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 400 AM CDT Wed Jun 21 2017 000 WTNT33 KNHC 210836 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Cindy Advisory Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032017 400 AM CDT Wed Jun 21 2017 ...HEAVY RAINFALL COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST... SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.3N 91.9W ABOUT 170 MI...275 KM SSW OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA ABOUT 225 MI...360 KM SE OF GALVESTON TEXAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * San Luis Pass Texas to the Alabama-Florida border * Metropolitan New Orleans * Lake Pontchartrain A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12 to 24 hours. Interests elsewhere along the U.S. Gulf Coast from the central Texas coast to the western Florida Panhandle should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Cindy was located near latitude 27.3 North, longitude 91.9 West. Cindy is moving toward the northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue today. A turn toward the north-northwest and then toward the north is expected tonight and early Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of Cindy will approach the coast of southwest Louisiana and southeast Texas late today or tonight, and move inland over southeastern Texas or southwestern Louisiana on Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected today. Slight weakening is forecast to begin on Thursday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 275 miles (445 km), mainly north through northeast of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Cindy is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 6 to 9 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches over southeastern Louisiana, southern Mississippi, southern Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle through Thursday. This rainfall could cause life-threatening flash flooding in these areas. Rainfall amounts of 3 to 5 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches can be expected farther west across western Louisiana and eastern Texas through Thursday. Rainfall should spread northeastward across Arkansas and into portions of the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys through Friday, with total rain accumulations of 3 to 5 inches with locally higher amounts possible. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are affecting portions of the northern Gulf of Mexico coast over the eastern part of the warning area. These conditions should spread westward within the warning area through early Thursday. STORM SURGE: Inundation of 1 to 3 feet above ground level is expected along the coast in portions of the Tropical Storm Warning area, with isolated areas possibly up to 4 feet. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible this morning through tonight from the western Florida Panhandle to southern Louisiana. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT. Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch

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Tropical Storm Cindy Forecast Advisory Number 7

2017-06-21 10:35:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0900 UTC WED JUN 21 2017 000 WTNT23 KNHC 210834 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM CINDY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032017 0900 UTC WED JUN 21 2017 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SAN LUIS PASS TEXAS TO THE ALABAMA-FLORIDA BORDER * METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS * LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE U.S. GULF COAST FROM THE CENTRAL TEXAS COAST TO THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.3N 91.9W AT 21/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 0NE 0SE 0SW 80NW. 34 KT.......240NE 120SE 50SW 120NW. 12 FT SEAS..300NE 300SE 60SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.3N 91.9W AT 21/0900Z AT 21/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.9N 91.5W FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 28.0N 92.8W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 0SE 0SW 80NW. 34 KT...240NE 120SE 50SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 29.3N 93.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...180NE 120SE 50SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 30.9N 93.8W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...120NE 90SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 33.2N 92.8W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 36.0N 85.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 25/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.3N 91.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/1500Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH

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