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Post-Tropical Cyclone Omar Graphics
2020-09-05 22:32:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 05 Sep 2020 20:32:42 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 05 Sep 2020 20:32:42 GMT
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Omar Forecast Discussion Number 21
2020-09-05 22:31:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Sat Sep 05 2020 808 WTNT45 KNHC 052031 TCDAT5 Post-Tropical Cyclone Omar Discussion Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152020 500 PM AST Sat Sep 05 2020 Omar continues to separate from a small lingering area of deep convection that is located more than 100 n mi south-southwest of the center. During the past couple of days, Omar has produced just enough convection to maintain its status of a tropical depression, but now it no longer meets the criteria of sufficently organized deep convection to be considered a tropical cyclone. Therefore, this is the last advisory on Omar issued by NHC. The initial intensity of the remnant low is 30 kt based on earlier ASCAT data that showed a region of 25-30 kt winds east of the center. The remnant low is moving northward at 9 kt, a couple of hundred miles east of a cold front. The models suggest that the remnants of Omar should accelerate north-northeastward and merge with the front in about 24 hours, leading to extratropical transition. Dissipation is expected shortly thereafter. For additional and future information on this system, see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/2100Z 38.4N 56.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 12H 06/0600Z 40.2N 55.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 06/1800Z 43.3N 52.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 07/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Omar Wind Speed Probabilities Number 21
2020-09-05 22:30:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT SEP 05 2020 000 FONT15 KNHC 052030 PWSAT5 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE OMAR WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152020 2100 UTC SAT SEP 05 2020 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE OMAR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 38.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 56.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Summary for Post-Tropical Cyclone Omar (AT5/AL152020)
2020-09-05 22:30:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...OMAR IS NOW A REMNANT LOW... ...THIS IS THE LAST NHC ADVISORY... As of 5:00 PM AST Sat Sep 5 the center of Omar was located near 38.4, -56.9 with movement N at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1011 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Omar Public Advisory Number 21
2020-09-05 22:30:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Sat Sep 05 2020 000 WTNT35 KNHC 052030 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Post-Tropical Cyclone Omar Advisory Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152020 500 PM AST Sat Sep 05 2020 ...OMAR IS NOW A REMNANT LOW... ...THIS IS THE LAST NHC ADVISORY... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...38.4N 56.9W ABOUT 610 MI...985 KM NE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1011 MB...29.86 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Omar was located near latitude 38.4 North, longitude 56.9 West. The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the north near 10 mph (17 km/h). A faster north-northeastward or northeastward motion is expected during the next day or two. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. The remnant low is expected to merge with a cold front on Sunday and dissipate Sunday night. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1011 mb (29.86 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system. Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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