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Tropical Depression Omar Graphics
2020-09-04 10:37:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 04 Sep 2020 08:37:07 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 04 Sep 2020 09:24:50 GMT
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Tropical Depression Omar Forecast Discussion Number 15
2020-09-04 10:36:01| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Fri Sep 04 2020 000 WTNT45 KNHC 040835 TCDAT5 Tropical Depression Omar Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152020 500 AM AST Fri Sep 04 2020 Although it is situated over fairly warm waters of a little over 27 deg C, Omar has been producing very little deep convection overnight while it continues to be affected by strong northerly shear. Some dry air is also being entrained into the circulation. The current intensity of 25 kt is based on continuity from earlier scatterometer measurements. If the lack of convection continues, Omar will be declared a remnant low pressure system later today. In any event, the cyclone should become absorbed by a frontal trough within a couple of days. After turning east-southeastward, Omar is now headed east at a rather slow pace, or 090/6 kt. The system should turn toward the northeast and accelerate ahead of a large mid-level trough within 36-48 hours. The official forecast is somewhat faster than the previous one but slower than the latest track model consensus predictions. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/0900Z 35.3N 58.5W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 04/1800Z 35.6N 57.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 05/0600Z 36.5N 57.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 05/1800Z 38.1N 56.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 06/0600Z 40.5N 54.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 06/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Summary for Tropical Depression Omar (AT5/AL152020)
2020-09-04 10:35:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...OMAR SOON TO BE A REMNANT LOW... As of 5:00 AM AST Fri Sep 4 the center of Omar was located near 35.3, -58.5 with movement E at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.
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Tropical Depression Omar Public Advisory Number 15
2020-09-04 10:35:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Fri Sep 04 2020 000 WTNT35 KNHC 040834 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Omar Advisory Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152020 500 AM AST Fri Sep 04 2020 ...OMAR SOON TO BE A REMNANT LOW... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...35.3N 58.5W ABOUT 415 MI...670 KM ENE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Omar was located near latitude 35.3 North, longitude 58.5 West. The depression is moving toward the east near 7 mph (11 km/h) and a turn toward the northeast with an increase in forward speed is expected over the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. Omar is likely to degenerate into a remnant low later today. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Depression Omar Wind Speed Probabilities Number 15
2020-09-04 10:35:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC FRI SEP 04 2020 000 FONT15 KNHC 040834 PWSAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION OMAR WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152020 0900 UTC FRI SEP 04 2020 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION OMAR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 35.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 58.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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