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Tropical Depression Omar Graphics
2020-09-05 16:41:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 05 Sep 2020 14:41:00 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 05 Sep 2020 14:41:00 GMT
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Tropical Depression Omar Forecast Discussion Number 20
2020-09-05 16:39:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Sat Sep 05 2020 000 WTNT45 KNHC 051439 TCDAT5 Tropical Depression Omar Discussion Number 20 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152020 1100 AM AST Sat Sep 05 2020 Omar is barely a tropical cyclone. The center is completely exposed to the north of a slowly shrinking area of sheared deep convection. The initial intensity is held at 30 kt for this advisory. Omar remains in an environment of northerly wind shear, dry air, and it is headed toward cool waters. These conditions should cause Omar to finally become a remnant low soon. Although the forecast shows the system becoming a remnant low at 24 hours, it certainty could become one at any time before then after its limited amount of deep convection dissipates. Satellite images show an approaching cold front about 300 n mi to the northwest of Omar. This front is expected to merge with the system, causing Omar or its remnants to become extratropical by Sunday afternoon. The tropical depression is now moving northward at 9 kt. A much faster north-northeast to northeast motion is expected during the remainder of the weekend as Omar, or its remnants, become more embedded in the fast steering flow ahead of the aforementioned cold front. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/1500Z 37.4N 57.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 06/0000Z 39.0N 56.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 06/1200Z 41.9N 53.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 07/0000Z 45.2N 49.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 07/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Summary for Tropical Depression Omar (AT5/AL152020)
2020-09-05 16:38:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...OMAR STILL HANGING ON AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... As of 11:00 AM AST Sat Sep 5 the center of Omar was located near 37.4, -57.3 with movement N at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1010 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Omar Public Advisory Number 20
2020-09-05 16:38:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Sat Sep 05 2020 000 WTNT35 KNHC 051438 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Omar Advisory Number 20 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152020 1100 AM AST Sat Sep 05 2020 ...OMAR STILL HANGING ON AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...37.4N 57.3W ABOUT 550 MI...890 KM NE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Omar was located near latitude 37.4 North, longitude 57.3 West. The depression is moving toward the north near 10 mph (17 km/h). A faster north-northeastward or northeastward motion is expected during the next day or two. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Omar is forecast to degenerate into a remnant low by early Sunday, and to dissipate by early Monday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb (29.83 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Depression Omar Wind Speed Probabilities Number 20
2020-09-05 16:38:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT SEP 05 2020 000 FONT15 KNHC 051438 PWSAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION OMAR WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152020 1500 UTC SAT SEP 05 2020 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION OMAR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 37.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 57.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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