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Tropical Depression Omar Wind Speed Probabilities Number 14
2020-09-04 04:32:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI SEP 04 2020 000 FONT15 KNHC 040232 PWSAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION OMAR WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152020 0300 UTC FRI SEP 04 2020 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION OMAR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 35.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 59.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER LATTO
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Tropical Depression Omar Forecast Advisory Number 14
2020-09-04 04:31:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI SEP 04 2020 000 WTNT25 KNHC 040231 TCMAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION OMAR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152020 0300 UTC FRI SEP 04 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.2N 59.1W AT 04/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OR 105 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.2N 59.1W AT 04/0300Z AT 04/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 35.3N 59.5W FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 35.2N 58.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 35.6N 57.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 36.8N 56.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 38.3N 55.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 35.2N 59.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0900Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO
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Tropical Depression Omar Graphics
2020-09-03 22:36:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 03 Sep 2020 20:36:29 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 03 Sep 2020 21:24:55 GMT
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Tropical Depression Omar Forecast Discussion Number 13
2020-09-03 22:34:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Thu Sep 03 2020 000 WTNT45 KNHC 032034 TCDAT5 Tropical Depression Omar Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152020 500 PM AST Thu Sep 03 2020 The GOES-16 visible and enhanced infrared satellite presentation has changed little during the past several hours and is comprised of a sheared depression with a deep convective mass decoupled well to the south of the surface circulation center. Based on the earlier METOP-B scatterometer pass and the Dvorak satellite intensity estimates, the initial intensity remains at 30 kt. Gradual weakening is still forecast during the next couple of days as the cyclone continues to move in the persistent, blistering northerly shear environment on the order of 40 to 45 kt. Large-scale models insist that Omar will degenerate to a remnant low in 24 hours, or less, and dissipate by Sunday morning. The NHC forecast will, once again, reflect this scenario. It appears that the slightly larger non-tropical low a few hundred miles to the east-northeast of Omar is causing the depression to move in an east-southeastward fashion at 9 kt. This binary interaction is only temporary, however, and Omar should return to an eastward track by Friday morning as the low pressure system downstream accelerates northeastward. Afterward, a turn toward the northeast is forecast early Saturday morning in response to an approaching frontal boundary from the northwest, and the Azores high several hundred miles to the east building southwestward over the central Atlantic. The official forecast is a little to the south of the previous advisory and is based on a blend of the various multi-model consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/2100Z 35.4N 60.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 04/0600Z 35.3N 58.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 04/1800Z 35.3N 57.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 05/0600Z 36.3N 56.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 05/1800Z 37.5N 56.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 06/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Roberts
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Summary for Tropical Depression Omar (AT5/AL152020)
2020-09-03 22:34:22| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...OMAR MOVING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE OPEN NORTH ATLANTIC... ...FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW FRIDAY... As of 5:00 PM AST Thu Sep 3 the center of Omar was located near 35.4, -60.1 with movement ESE at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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