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Tropical Storm Leslie Forecast Advisory Number 14
2018-09-29 22:31:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT SEP 29 2018 771 WTNT23 KNHC 292031 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM LESLIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132018 2100 UTC SAT SEP 29 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.1N 51.3W AT 29/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST OR 225 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 991 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT.......200NE 150SE 100SW 180NW. 12 FT SEAS..420NE 240SE 420SW 420NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.1N 51.3W AT 29/2100Z AT 29/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 34.2N 51.1W FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 33.6N 52.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...180NE 150SE 100SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 33.1N 53.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...150NE 130SE 100SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 32.8N 53.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. 34 KT...150NE 120SE 100SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 32.5N 53.9W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. 34 KT...150NE 120SE 100SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 31.5N 54.7W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...150NE 120SE 170SW 230NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 03/1800Z 31.5N 54.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 04/1800Z 34.0N 54.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 34.1N 51.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/0300Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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Subtropical Storm Leslie Graphics
2018-09-29 16:48:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 29 Sep 2018 14:48:10 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 29 Sep 2018 15:22:03 GMT
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Subtropical Storm Leslie Forecast Discussion Number 13
2018-09-29 16:46:22| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Sat Sep 29 2018 245 WTNT43 KNHC 291446 TCDAT3 Subtropical Storm Leslie Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018 1100 AM AST Sat Sep 29 2018 Leslie's cloud pattern has taken on a more tropical appearance since last night. However, the cyclone is still co-located with an upper-level low, so its status as a subtropical cyclone is maintained for this advisory. The initial intensity remains 40 kt, based on a subtropical classification of 35-40 kt from TAFB. The global models forecast that Leslie will separate from the upper-level low over the course of the next day or so, which should complete its transition to a tropical cyclone. While this could result in a short-term increase in shear over Leslie, by early next week the cyclone will likely be located within a fairly low shear environment. However, Leslie is expected to move very slowly by that time, and ocean upwelling could limit or prevent further strengthening. There is a large amount of spread in the intensity guidance by day 5, but it is worth noting that the models most capable of properly representing the effect of ocean cooling on intensity, COAMPS-TC, HWRF, and HMON, all keep Leslie below hurricane strength for the next 5 days. The HWRF in particular forecasts nearly 5 deg C of ocean cooling beneath the cyclone. The NHC intensity forecast is generally a little lower than the previous advisory, but is still near the IVCN and HCCA consensus aids at all forecast hours. If Leslie moves more than expected, it would not be surprising if it strengthened more than currently forecast. Little change was made to the official track forecast. Leslie is still expected to move slowly southwestward for the next couple of days, before coming to a near halt early next week. By the middle of the week, an approaching mid-latitude trough could steer Leslie toward the north or northeast and allow the cyclone to start gaining speed, however, there is a lot of spread among the global models as to how quickly this will occur, and confidence in this portion of the forecast is fairly low. Large swells generated by Leslie when it was a strong extratropical low will affect Bermuda, the east coast of the United States, and most of the Greater and Lesser Antilles through the weekend. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/1500Z 34.4N 50.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 30/0000Z 33.8N 51.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 30/1200Z 33.3N 52.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 01/0000Z 33.1N 53.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE 48H 01/1200Z 32.8N 54.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 02/1200Z 31.6N 55.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 03/1200Z 31.0N 55.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 04/1200Z 33.0N 55.0W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Summary for Subtropical Storm Leslie (AT3/AL132018)
2018-09-29 16:45:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...LESLIE MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC... As of 11:00 AM AST Sat Sep 29 the center of Leslie was located near 34.4, -50.8 with movement SW at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 991 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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Subtropical Storm Leslie Public Advisory Number 13
2018-09-29 16:45:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Sat Sep 29 2018 176 WTNT33 KNHC 291445 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Subtropical Storm Leslie Advisory Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018 1100 AM AST Sat Sep 29 2018 ...LESLIE MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...34.4N 50.8W ABOUT 820 MI...1320 KM ENE OF BERMUDA ABOUT 1345 MI...2165 KM W OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...SW OR 225 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.27 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Subtropical Storm Leslie was located near latitude 34.4 North, longitude 50.8 West. The storm is moving toward the southwest near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through today. Leslie is then forecast to slowly meander over the central Atlantic through early next week. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is expected, and Leslie could transition into a tropical cyclone during the couple of days. Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 255 miles (405 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 991 mb (29.27 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Leslie will affect Bermuda, the east coast of the United States, and most of the Greater and Lesser Antilles through the weekend. These swells will likely cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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