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Tropical Storm Leslie Public Advisory Number 22
2018-10-01 22:36:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Mon Oct 01 2018 787 WTNT33 KNHC 012036 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Leslie Advisory Number 22 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018 500 PM AST Mon Oct 01 2018 ...LESLIE BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...32.8N 54.6W ABOUT 595 MI...955 KM E OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...SW OR 235 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Leslie was located near latitude 32.8 North, longitude 54.6 West. Leslie is moving toward the southwest near 5 mph (7 km/h), and a slow southwestward or southward motion is forecast during the next couple of days. A turn to the north-northeast is forecast to occur by Thursday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is expected during the next 48 hours, and Leslie is forecast to become a hurricane on Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb (29.24 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Leslie will affect Bermuda, the Bahamas, portions of the coast of the southeastern United States, and most of the Greater and Lesser Antilles during the next few days. These swells will likely cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Storm Leslie Wind Speed Probabilities Number 22
2018-10-01 22:36:13| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC MON OCT 01 2018 765 FONT13 KNHC 012036 PWSAT3 TROPICAL STORM LESLIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132018 2100 UTC MON OCT 01 2018 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LESLIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 54.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Tropical Storm Leslie Forecast Advisory Number 22
2018-10-01 22:35:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC MON OCT 01 2018 111 WTNT23 KNHC 012035 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM LESLIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132018 2100 UTC MON OCT 01 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.8N 54.6W AT 01/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST OR 235 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. 34 KT.......140NE 110SE 80SW 110NW. 12 FT SEAS..360NE 180SE 300SW 540NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.8N 54.6W AT 01/2100Z AT 01/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 33.0N 54.5W FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 31.9N 55.4W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW. 34 KT...140NE 110SE 100SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 30.9N 55.9W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 50 KT... 70NE 40SE 40SW 70NW. 34 KT...140NE 120SE 120SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 30.2N 56.2W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 0SE 20SW 40NW. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 80NW. 34 KT...140NE 140SE 140SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 30.0N 56.4W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 50 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 70NW. 34 KT...160NE 160SE 140SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 33.3N 55.8W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 90NW. 34 KT...180NE 180SE 150SW 180NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 05/1800Z 36.4N 55.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 06/1800Z 37.2N 52.8W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 32.8N 54.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0300Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Tropical Storm Leslie Graphics
2018-10-01 16:36:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 01 Oct 2018 14:36:23 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 01 Oct 2018 15:22:05 GMT
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Tropical Storm Leslie Forecast Discussion Number 21
2018-10-01 16:31:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Mon Oct 01 2018 712 WTNT43 KNHC 011431 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Leslie Discussion Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018 1100 AM AST Mon Oct 01 2018 Leslie is gradually becoming better organized. A large band of deep convection exists on the west side of the circulation and some fragmented bands are beginning to form on the east side. Overall, Leslie appears more symmetric than it has been during the past couple of days due to a decrease in wind shear. Despite the improved appearance, the satellite intensity estimates are largely unchanged, so the initial intensity is held at 50 kt, near the high end of the estimates. Since Leslie is forecast to be in a low wind shear environment and expected to move over slightly higher SSTs during the next couple of days, slow strengthening is predicted. Most of the models show Leslie becoming a hurricane in 24 to 36 hours, and the NHC forecast follows suit. By late in the week and this weekend, Leslie is expected to move north-northeastward back over its previous track, where it has upwelled cooler waters. These less conducive oceanic conditions should cause a slow decay. Leslie continues to drift to the southwest on the east side of a mid-level high, and a continued slow south to southwest motion is expected during the next couple of days. Thereafter, a developing shortwave trough to the west of Leslie should cause it to move north-northeastward but only at a slightly faster pace. The NHC track forecast is nudged to the left of the previous one to come into better agreement with the latest guidance. Regardless of the details of the forecast track, there is high confidence that Leslie will meander for quite a while over the central Atlantic. Large swells generated by Leslie will continue to affect portions of the southeastern coast of the United States, Bermuda, the Bahamas, and most of the Greater and Lesser Antilles through tonight. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. Although the swells will diminish slightly by Tuesday, they are expected to increase again over the Bahamas and most of the Greater and Lesser Antilles late Wednesday and Thursday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/1500Z 33.2N 54.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 02/0000Z 32.7N 54.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 02/1200Z 31.6N 55.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 03/0000Z 30.7N 55.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 03/1200Z 30.4N 56.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 04/1200Z 32.5N 55.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 05/1200Z 35.7N 54.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 06/1200Z 37.4N 52.0W 60 KT 70 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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